From EU to Europe of Nations?

By Huang Jing

In 2019， the European Union （EU） faced two hot issues. One was Brexit. The UK was originally scheduled to leave the EU on March 29 but after fresh negotiations， the date was postponed to October 31.

The other was the European Parliament election in May. Following the results， after a long bickering， a special summit on July 2 fi nally decided on the people who will head key EU posts for the next fi ve years.

The list of names comes after fierce bargaining among European leaders， especially by German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Emmanuel Macron. Nationality， the political background and gender were decisive factors. Ursula von der Leyen， Germanys first female defense minister， was nominated to succeed European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker. Charles Michel， Prime Minister of Belgium and a Liberal， will be the new EU Council president， stepping into Donald Tusks shoes， while Josep Borrell， the 72-year-old Spanish foreign minister， will be the EUs foreign affairs chief. International Monetary Fund （IMF） President Christine Lagarde has been nominated as the head of the European Central Bank （ECB）.

A careful reading of the last-minute list， a surprise to many， will reveal several trends in European politics.

Shift in power

The election saw the death of the process of Spitzenkandidat， the lead candidate of a party. In the 2014 election， the European Parliament had proposed that to boost democracy in the EU， the candidate from the largest political group in the house should be president of the European Commission. Thus Juncker， the Spitzenkandidat of the European Peoples Party （EPP）， the largest party group， got the coveted post.

But this time， when the EPP proposed Manfred Weber， a German politician， as its Spitzenkandidat， Weber failed to get support from major European states. One reason was that the EPP， which won 212 seats in 2014， secured only 182 this time.

Macron has been especially critical of the Spitzenkandidat process since it puts his newly formed La République En Marche （En Marche） party at a disadvantage. Though Macrons party got less votes than the French far-right party National Rally （until June 2018 known as the National Front）， his group in the European Parliament， Renew Europe， emerged as the third largest group， increasing his leverage.

Margrethe Vestager， European Commissioner for Competition， called the election a “landmark” and “a signal for change，” implying the EPP and the second largest group， the Socialists， can no longer dominate EU affairs.

It is said that in 2014， 76 percent of EU citizens lived in countries led by parties belonging to one or the other of the two big families. Now the proportion is just 38 percent. As a result， there will be no easy majorities in the new European Parliament. The grilling bargaining and the dramatic outcome of the jobs carve-up bode harder years for the EUs consensus politics. Conditional coalitions will become the new norm.

Surviving populism

The last two years saw populists and euroskeptics making forays in some countries. The European Parliament election is regarded by many as the first EU-wide showdown between pro-EU liberals and anti-EU nationalists.

Swayed by the fierce political debates on the campaign trail， more than half of European voters cast their votes， reversing the low turnout trend since the fi rst election in 1979. The biggest surprise of the election was the resurgence of the liberals and Greens， most of whom are from the pro-EU camp. Although the farright populists took around one fifth of the votes， they were less impressive than predicted.

Except for a handful of far-right parties， such as the Dutch Party for Freedom and the Alternative für Deutschland， most farright parties are no longer campaigning to exit the EU or the euro. Rather， they would like to stay and change from within. As Matteo Salvini， the leader of Italys far-right League， puts it， they would like to build a“Europe of nations.”

The countries that are governed by populist parties， such as Italy， Austria， Poland and Hungary， did not have much impact on the job summit. Instead， Macron， a fervent advocate for a “Renaissance Europe，” is regarded as the only unmitigated winner and the list of nominees is clearly a pro-EU one.

Von der Leyen is a staunch European federalist who favors a European army in the long term. Michel comes from traditionally pro-EU Belgium and Borrell is an old hand at European affairs. Prior to taking up the EU foreign policy chief post， he stood out by leading EU diplomacy on the Venezuela crisis. Lagarde has been deeply involved in resolving the euro crisis as IMF president and her stand on fi scal discipline has won her fans in Germany. The new EU leadership appears to be resistant to the euroskeptic surge.

Integration on the cards？

The clout of big member states， especially Germany and France， can be clearly felt. The most important post， that of the European Commission president， has gone to Germany. Merkel secured the job for her defense minister， the only one to have served in all four governments of Merkel. The post of the ECB president has gone to France. And all the four new nominees are fl uent French speakers.

Spain also reaps benefit as the UK leaves and Italy falls into the hands of populists. A long-time reactive player in European integration， the Spanish Government has learned in recent years that only more influence at the EU level can help it deal with the secessionist movement in its northeastern community of Catalonia. Spanish Prime Minster Pedro Sánchez has doubled his investment in the EU. His top officials are strong pro-Europeans who understand how the EU works. And now， the Spanish foreign minister has been nominated as the EU foreign affairs chief. ？

It remains to be seen in the next few years how the important European countries seize the opportunity to promote European integration. For example， whether Macron can set up an EU-wide conference on the reform of the EU by the end of the year， as he has sought to in his open letter to the “citizens of Europe” in March.