What Could Happen if the Amazon Rainforest Disappeared如果亚马孙雨林消失会发生什么

Lela Nargi 张宁

●The mightiest rainforest in the world is shrinking at an alarming rate. If it disappears altogether， the effects on our planet will be devastating1.

The Amazon， a vast swath of tropical2 rainforest that straddles3 parts of Bolivia， Columbia， Ecuador， French Guiana， Guyana， Peru， Surinam， Venezuela. But most of all， at 60 percent， Brazil， has been losing the battle against deforestation4 for decades. Prior to the 1970s， in Brazil alone， it comprised 1.54 million square miles. Its been declining steadily ever since， destroyed bit by bit by illegal logging， soy plantations， and cattle ranching， according to Greenpeace. In 2018， Brazils portion of the rainforest stood at 1.274 million square， but that figure is predicted by eco-watchers to plummet， quickly.

The Amazon holds a whopping 10 percent of all the plant and animal species known to exist on our planet. About 30 million people call it home， 2.7 million of who are indigenous5. This rainforest also stores 100 billion metric tons of carbon and， according to the World Wildlife Federation， filters carbon dioxide out of the air we breathe and controls our climate through evapotranspiration6. Below， we look at what would happen if this important and powerful entity were to disappear entirely.

○世界上最大的雨林正在以惊人的速度萎缩。如果它完全消失，对我们星球的影响将是毁灭性的。

亚马孙雨林是一大片热带雨林，横跨玻利维亚、哥伦比亚、厄瓜多尔、法属圭亚那、圭亚那、秘鲁、苏里南、委内瑞拉的部分地区。但尤其是占（亚马孙雨林的）60%面积的巴西几十年来一直与森林砍伐屡战屡败。20世纪70年代之前，仅在巴西，（亚马孙雨林的面积）就有154万平方英里。绿色和平组织称，从那以后，它一直在逐步变小，一点一点地被非法伐木、大豆种植和畜牧养殖摧毁。2018年，巴西部分雨林面积为127.4万平方米，但生态观察人士预测该数字将迅速下降。

亚马孙拥有地球上已知的所有动植物物种的10%，是约3000万人的“家园”，其中有270万人是土著人。这片雨林还储存了1000亿吨的碳，并且根据世界野生动物协会的数据，它过滤着我们呼吸的空气中的二氧化碳，并通过蒸散控制着我们的气候。下面，我们来看看如果这个重要的大雨林完全消失了，会发生什么。

●Faltering rainfall

A study published in 2012 in Nature showed that the Amazon was responsible for bringing rain to the surrounding region. “Deforestation can reduce rainfall over a wide region， even as it spurs increased rainfall in the immediate area where that deforestation took place，” Scientific American reports. “Deforestation in the Amazon could sharply reduce rainfall in nonforested parts of southern Brazil， a rich agricultural area， as well as Paraguay and Uruguay…and beyond.”

○降雨量减少

2012年发表在《自然》上的一項研究表明，亚马孙雨林和周边地区的降雨量大小有关。“砍伐森林会减少大范围地区的降雨量，虽然在发生森林砍伐的地方会促进降雨量的增加。”《科学美国人》中报告说，“亚马孙河流域的森林砍伐可能会大大减少巴西南部非森林地带的富裕农业区，以及巴拉圭和乌拉圭……和其他地区的降雨量。”

●Increased drought

What happens with less rain？ Theres less water to drink， of course. A recent drought in Sao Paulo is thought to have been exacerbated7 by the Amazons deforestation. Less rain also means theres less water for agriculture—ironic， since “rainfall in the Amazon also helps supply water to the very soy farmers and beef ranchers who are clearing the forest，” according to National Geographic. Droughts will only worsen as more trees are cleared， threatening food and drinking water supplies.

○干旱加剧

降雨变少会怎么样？当然，饮用水变少了。圣保罗最近的一场旱灾被认为是由于亚马孙的森林砍伐而加剧的。降雨变少也意味着农业可用的水变少，具有讽刺意味的是，根据《国家地理》的说法，“亚马孙的降雨也有助于为正在砍伐森林的大豆农场主和养牛的牧场主供水。”随着更多的树木被砍伐，干旱情况只会继续恶化，威胁食物和饮用水的供应。

●More greenhouse gases

Cutting down any more trees in the Amazon—let alone all of them—would lead to a transition in which “tremendous quantities of planet-warming greenhouse gases” would be released， says National Geographic. As tropical forest researcher Adriane Esquivel-Muelbert told the magazine， “If we mess up with the Amazon， carbon dioxide emissions will increase so massively that everyone will suffer.” Namely， with poorer air quality and hotter global temperatures.

○更多温室气体

《国家地理》说，在亚马逊地区砍伐更多的树木——更不用说全部树木——将会导致 “大量使全球变暖的温室气体”释放的变化。正如热带森林研究者阿德里安·埃斯奎维尔·穆尔伯特在杂志上所说的，“如果我们对亚马孙胡来，二氧化碳的排放量会急剧增加，每个人都会受害。”也就是说，空气质量会随之变差，全球气温会变高。

●More flooding

Already the Amazon is seeing reduced rainfall by some 25 percent in some regions， and when rains do arrive they result in massive amounts of flooding. This scenario—drier and longer dry spells followed by increasing upticks in flooding—would only intensify if the rainforest were to disappear.“And not just rain but the regions the overall climate，” writes National Geographic， “is oscillating more wildly...（and） the consequences will be felt far and wide.”

○更多洪灾

在亚马孙已经可见某些地区降雨量减少了25%，降雨到来时，就会导致大量的洪水。这种情况——更加干旱和更长的干旱期之后洪水增加——在雨林将要消失的情况下会加剧。《国家地理》中写道：“不仅是降雨，该地区的整体气候也会剧烈波动……（而且）其后果将是深远的。”

●Loss of biodiversity8

Home to a staggering number of species of plants， animals， insects， and fungi9， the Amazon holds a rich array of the life that exists on Earth， and an average of one new species is being discovered each day. Already in 2012， The Guardian was ringing the alarm bell about threatened and endangered species， reporting that “many face a slow death sentence as their breeding rates fall and competition for food becomes more intense.” Destroy the Amazon and much of that diversity goes with it—wiping out an entire ecosystem at the same time.

○生物多樣性丧失

亚马孙有着数量惊人的植物、动物、昆虫和真菌物种，有着丰富的地球生命，平均每天都有一个新物种被发现。早在2012年，《卫报》就已经敲响了关于物种濒危的警钟，并报道说“随着繁殖率的下降，以及对食物的竞争变得更加激烈，许多物种缓慢迈向消亡。”如果毁灭了亚马孙雨林，很大程度上生物多样性会随之消失——同时会摧毁整个生态系统。

●Loss of medical possibilities

Why should humans care about this loss of species？ “Its kind of a cliche10 that the cure for cancer might be in the Amazon， but its also kind of true，” Esquivel-Muelbert told National Geographic. As Rainforest Trust highlights on its website， almost 90 percent of human diseases are treatable with prescription drugs that were derived from things in nature， like snake venom11， and molds12—some of which have their origins in the Amazon. How many future cures will be lost with the rainforests demise？ No one knows for sure.

○失去医疗的可能性

为什么人类要关心物种的消失？埃斯奎維尔·穆尔伯特告诉《国家地理》杂志：“治疗癌症的方法也许就在亚马孙，这有点陈词滥调，但这也是事实。”正如热带雨林基金会在其网站上强调的那样，人类几乎90%的疾病可以通过处方药治疗，而处方药来源于自然界中的物质，如蛇毒、霉菌等，其中一些就来自亚马孙。随着雨林的消亡，有多少未来的治疗方法会消失？没有人能确切知道。

●Bigger， longer fires

The loss of the Amazons trees， which has sparked a loss of rain and an increase in drought conditions， has led to an increase in fires that are bigger than ever and that burn for much longer than their predecessors. These fires release even more carbon into the atmosphere， worsening some of the conditions already highlighted here， like an increasingly hotter climate.

○更大、更长时间的火灾

亚马孙树木的损失，引发了降雨的减少和干旱情况的增加，导致了比以往任何时候规模都更大的火灾的增加，并且燃烧的时间比之前的火灾都要长得多。这些火灾释放出更多的（二氧化）碳到大气中，导致一些已经很突出的情况恶化，比如越来越热的气候。

●Poorer people

The Amazon is home not only to plant and animal species but to people as well， many of whom rely on the rainforest for their livelihood. “All of the worlds rainforests provide food， energy security， incomes， and medicinal plants for 300 million people，” points out The Guardian. “And as the forests come down， the people who live in or around them and depend on them become impoverished. Without the forests， people migrate to cities， or move to richer countries in search of work.”

○更贫穷

亚马孙不仅是植物和动物的家园，也是人类的家园，许多人都依靠雨林谋生。“全世界的雨林为3亿人提供食物、能源安全、收入和药用植物。”《卫报》指出，“随着森林被砍伐，居住在森林里或森林周边并依靠森林生活的人们变得贫困。如果没有森林，人们就会移居城市，或前往更富裕的国家寻找工作。”