Regional Security Governance in NortheastAsia:Major Opportunities and their Command

By Professor Tao Jian

President of University of International Relations

At the meeting of importance on June 12 in Singapore,the leaders of the DPRK and the United States, with great courage and unconventional acts,reversed momentum of the deteriorating security situation on the Korean Peninsula and restarted the process of complete denuclearization. Currently, all parties concerned should seize the good opportunity brought about by the improvement of DPRK-U.S.relations and steadily strengthen the security governance in NortheastAsia.

I.New developments of resolving the DPRK nuclear issue and its prospects in the future

For many years,the DPRK nuclear issue has been restricting improvement of the security environment in Northeast Asia,and it is the DPRK-U.S.relations that is the main crux for a difficult solution of the DPRK nuclear issue.The reversal of the U.S.-DPRK relations is bound to lead to a series of positive chain reactions.After the ROK-DPRK leaders summit,the China-DPRK leaders summit,and the U.S.-DPRK leaders summit, the Russia-DPRK leaders summit and Japan-DPRK leaders summit can be expected.Led by diplomacy of the top leaders,the regional situation in Northeast Asia will see a new change,and regional security governance will have a new opportunity.

In the editorial for the New Year's Day in 2018,Kim Jong Un threw out the olive branch for the North-South reconciliation.Moon Jae-in who inherited the political line of"progressives",i.e.Kim Dae-jung and Roh Moo-hyun,quickly grasped it.On April 27,the leaders of the DPRK and the ROK had the 3rd summit,signed the Panmunjom Declaration,reached a series of agreements,designed a peace blueprint and a new economic blueprint for the future Peninsula, surpassed"peacekeeping" and moved towards"peace-making".The leaders of both sides have made so great efforts and taken so strong actions to improve relationship between the two sides that they are deeply impressive.

Having achieved the above-mentioned progress,in addition to the flexibility shown by the DPRK and the strong push from South Korea,the firm support from China and the major compromise made by President Trump are all extremely crucial.Since the end of March,Kim Jong Un has paid three consecutive visits to China and held historic meetings with President Xi Jinping and China has become strongly supportive of the changing situation on the Korean Peninsula.From the contents of the U.S.-DPRK Joint Statement,the U.S.compromise is obvious compared with the previous U.S. position and offer, i.e.,demanding North Korea to abandon its nuclear weapons in a "complete,verifiable and irreversible dismantlement manner"(CVID).President Trump has made such a strategic decision to break the deadlock of the DPRK nuclear issue,and its significance and effect deserve full affirmation.Since Trump has been in power for more than a year,his many“achievements” have been made in"destruction"aspect,such as withdrawal from the TPP and Iran's nuclear deal,but there is little to be mentioned in"establishment"aspect,especially in terms of constructive contributions to international and regional affairs.The breakthrough of the U.S.-DPRK relations can be regarded as a big credit for propaganda.In particular,the contents of the U.S.-DPRK Joint Statement prove the rationality and foresight of China's previous proposals for"two moratoriums",namely,moratorium on nuclear test conducted by the DPRK,and moratorium on the large-scale military exercise by the United States and South Korea,and the simultaneous progress of denuclearization and peace mechanisms.China’s proposals can stand tests by history,and are rational and forward looking.

Looking ahead,first,we cannot forget the historical setbacks in dealing with the DPRK nuclear issue.For example,after the 9.19 Joint Statement of the Six-Party Talks and the 2.29 deal between the DPRK and the United States,there emerged a very optimistic atmosphere,which did not last long.In view of this,all parties should not be over-optimistic and be highly vigilant against the uncertainty in the current U.S.-DPRK relations and the DPRK nuclear issue.

Second,attention must be paid to details.The devil is in the details.The essence of the DPRK nuclear issue is security.The task of achieving the complete denuclearization of the Peninsula and shifting from a security framework based on the Korean Armistice Agreement so far to a more inclusive and sustainable security framework marked by a peace treaty requires a large amount of detailed negotiations and is far more complex and formidable than expected.The United States tries to occupy the commanding heights from the very beginning,i.e.,formulating a package plan,implementing it in stages,achieving a clear goal and enabling the whole process controllable.While the DPRK wants to proceed in stages,to act upon action,to base on synchronous steps,and always maintains its own initiative.It can be predicted that even after the"framework"agreement is finalized,the tit-for-tat bargaining between the two sides will remain continuous and sharp.

II.The security governance of Northeast Asia has both opportunities and challenges

To promote regional security governance needs to nurture mutual trust and build consensus.Whether the security governance of Northeast Asia can be put on the right track depends on whether various parties can seize the opportunity generated by DPRK-U.S.relations improving,restore and establish a comprehensive mutual trust.

Northeast Asia is the place where the interests of major countries such as the United States,Russia,China,Japan and others are converging,and where they compete and play games.Especially in the Korean Peninsula,where there is extreme shortage of mutual trust mechanism and effective security mechanism,"Cold War thinking"is serious,"security dilemma"is prominent.

From the regional perspective,apart from distrust,there is mutual fear among various countries.On December 19,2017,President Trump issued a new National Security Strategy report,which lists China and Russia as"revisionist countries" in the international system, and as major challenges and"competitors"to the national security of the United States.Especially on July 6 this year,the Sino-U.S.trade war was officially opened,and there is a tendency to accelerate the escalation, an enormous erosion of the hard-won mutual trust between the two countries over the years.The 2017 edition of the White Paper on Defense,published by the Japanese Government,has 34-page literature on China,strongly accuses and wantonly distorts China's conventional military activities and legitimate national defense construction.Under such circumstances,mutual distrust among Northeast Asian countries is as hard as a chain of rings set to settle,and has become the biggest obstacle to the regional security governance in NortheastAsia.

From the practice of security governance,the United States, relying on the U.S.-Japan-South Korea alliance,tries to copy the NATO model and build a mini-version of NATO in Asia,while China and Russia advocate the establishment of a multilateral security system based on equal partnership in Northeast Asia.These are two sets of completely different thinking on security governance,thus,the construction of a security system in Northeast Asia has become difficult to take steps.Particularly,as the only superpower in the world,the United States,by playing the role of"offshore balancer",controls the situation in Northeast Asia, uses Sino-Japanese historical different recognition and territorial disputes to check and balance the two sides,uses the Taiwan issue to contain China's rise,uses the DPRK nuclear issue to control the security situation in Northeast Asia,and builds"Americana".Because of this,the coordination of major countries on regional security issues is difficult to achieve good results.Meanwhile,with growing and declining strength of countries in the region,new contradictions of interests have emerged,and also have brought about new variables and difficulties to solve the inherent contradictions in the region.

International trust is one of the important factors to form an international order,and any treaty or agreement is based on the mutual trust between countries.One important reason for the European region to have maintained long-term peace and stability after World War II is that the regional countries have developed a relationship of mutual trust,for which Europe has deliberately established a series of confidence-building measures.In contrast,the mutual trust relationship in Northeast Asia is extremely fragile,which must be built as a matter of top priority,starting from building mutual trust in security,gradually transiting to active regional security cooperation and governance mechanisms building, and ultimately realizing"long-term stability"in the region.

The Asian security concept characterized by"common,comprehensive,cooperative and sustainable security" advocated by China provides a basic guidance for cultivating regional trust relations in Northeast Asia.Building a community with a shared future is the ultimate goal of achieving security and stability in Northeast Asia. Despite the difficulties of security governance in Northeast Asia,as long as we have the firm determination to promote peace and stability and resolve for solving the problems for the region,and follow the principle of "win-win cooperation",promote Northeast Asia security from"distrust"to"trust",and from"uncertainty"to"certainty",building a community with a shared future for Northeast Asia can be expected.Only the trust relationship in Northeast Asia based on a community with a shared future can it be really lasting.

III.The security governance in Northeast Asia should adhere to a path and mode of"multilateralism plus bilateralism, and security plus economy"

The changing and developing regional situation urgently requires all parties concerned to participate more actively,equally and constructively in the current task of improving the security governance of Northeast Asia.From the path and mode perspective,we should adhere to"multilateralism plus bilateralism,and security plus economy".

Multilateral cooperation is the main mode for security governance in Northeast Asia.Multilateral cooperation is based on the fact that this model helps to enhance transparency,alleviate conflicts of interests and mutual suspicions between various countries,and enhance mutual trust and collective recognition of the rules of cooperation. The practice of security cooperation in Northeast Asia has proved that the stability of a security order in Northeast Asia can not be maintained by the leadership and voice of a major country alone,which is also an important reason why China pushes forward the Six-Party Talks.When responding to a hard problem,countries in Northeast Asia should discuss them together,on equal footing,with mutual understanding and accommodation,let alone excluding any party concerned.

To achieve regional peace and stability in Northeast Asia must deal with several bilateral relationships.Among them,China and the United States are the key countries for realizing the overall peace and stability in Northeast Asia.If the relations between them are not good,Northeast Asia will inevitably become the forward position and the main area of their trial of strength.Both China and the United States should respect each other's major strategic concerns and core interests in Northeast Asia,build a Sino-U.S.relations framework of"overall stability and balanced development",and expand the space for "inclusive coexistence" and win-win cooperation.Presently,it is particularly important to prevent a rapid decline of Sino-U.S.relations because of the trade war.Only making every effort to avoid the"all-round collision"between them can they prevent the"new cold war danger"from befalling Northeast Asia.In addition,China-Japan relations showed a momentum of improvement in 2017,both sides showed willingness to improve their relations,and their interactions increased.It is not easy to get reduction of security conflicts,so both sides should take good care of them.

Establishment of a security governance mechanism conforms to the common interests of all countries in Northeast Asia,only through the institutional building of a mechanism can the stability and effectiveness of regional security governance be fundamentally guaranteed.Governance mechanisms should be multi-level and diversified,both legitimate,and flexible and resilient,the key is to allow the participants to obtain sufficient security and comfort. In view of tasks,there should be both specific issues-oriented small multilateral dialogue mechanisms,and high-level powerful institutions to discuss major issues such as security concerns between major powers,and important issues such as security and peace agreements programs.More importantly,all participants in security cooperation should practice a common, comprehensive,cooperative and sustainable security concept,abandon the outdated concept of the Cold War mentality and zero-sum game,and promote regional security governance in an open and inclusive spirit.Only in this way can the process of regional security cooperation and political trust be guaranteed to advance steadily and not stagnate or retrogress due to various reasons.

Northeast Asia is an important economic region in the world,whose main feature is the regional economic complementarity brought about by the diversity and difference of economic development of various countries.Northeast Asia is also the region with the strongest economic complementarity,among which the economic and trade relations between China,Japan and South Korea are extremely close,and the three countries are the main trade and investment partners to each other. The DPRK and Mongolia depend heavily on China,Japan and South Korea for their economic development,while the Russian Far East is the most reliable energy base for Northeast Asian economic development in the coming decades.This feature makes the interdependence of various countries in the region continuously deepen.In the medium term,it is expected that the cooperation mechanism between China,Japan,and South Korea may give impetus to the "3+3"cooperation mechanism with Russia,the DPRK and Mongolia.Functionalist theory points out that the"spillover"effect is easy to occur in the process of cooperation,i.e., increasing interests of cooperation in one area will attract participants to extend cooperation to other areas.In Northeast Asia,it is feasible and inevitable for the institutionalization-led economic cooperation first to produce demonstration effects and then"spill over"to the political and security areas.

To sum up,under the conditions that the situation on the Korean Peninsula is turning for the better,all parties concerned should assume an unshakable attitude,actively take actions,activate existing dialogue mechanisms,create new platforms for cooperation,vigorously enhance mutual trust,concurrently develop multilateral & bilateral cooperation and security&economic cooperation,push forward the regional security governance onto a right track,safeguard well the sound situation of regional security and stability and ensure peace and prosperity.