A Preliminary Understanding of theCurrent International Security Situation

By Sun Bowen, CPAPD staff



A Preliminary Understanding of theCurrent International Security Situation

By Sun Bowen, CPAPD staff

The current international security situation continues its complex and profound changes. Major countries deepen adjustments of their security strategies, geo-political games move forward on several fronts, traditional and non-traditional security issues are interwoven together, global security governance meets with severe challenges.

I. Major countries adjust their security strategies, geo-political games become severe, military confrontations get self-evident and competitive means renew.

. One is to expand military presence in the Eastern wing. Holding series of military exercises, deploying military equipments such as main battle tanks, armed attack helicopters, infantry fighting vehicles, self-propelled artillery, etc. in the Eastern European and the Baltic Sea regions, strengthening forward military deployment and the combating system reconfiguration in the Eastern European region, and announcing the reopening of the NATO Atlantic command closed after the end of the Cold War. Two is to further develop nuclear strength. The United States vigorously promotes modernization process of its nuclear forces, promotes upgrading process of its trinity nuclear forces – intercontinental ballistic missiles, nuclear submarines, and strategic bombers, expands the role of nuclear weapons in the national security strategy, enhancing deterrence on Russia. Three is to reconfigure the missile defense systems. The United States prioritizes on pushing forward the deployment of THAAD system in South Korea, accelerates reconfiguration of the missile defense systems with Japan and South Korea, and encircles Russia from both the East and West with the help of Aegis system deployed in Eastern Europe. Meanwhile, It strengthens coordination between MD systems and nuclear forces, so as to create a trans-domain deterrent system with nuclear and non-nuclear combined.

One is to improve national defense strategy. Putin signs the Basic Policy for Russian Navy construction, enhancing Russian Navy building from multi-dimensions, and responding to competition for international ocean rights and interests. Russia has adopted the 2018-2025 State Armaments Program, planning to further improve technology system, pushing ahead new equipments R&D, and developing land, sea and air weapons with high-precision. Two is to strengthen defense strength. Sending large amount of troops to Crimea, Russia-Ukraine border and Baltic sea, deploying Topol and Yars missiles launching devices and large-scale military equipments, and testing intercontinental ballistic missiles. Prioritizing on developing strategic nuclear forces, further upgrading armaments levels for all armed forces and reinforcing military operational capabilities. Three is to expand global influence. Deploying short range ballistic missiles carrying nuclear war heads in Syrian military base. Having signed military and technical cooperation agreements with Chad, Niger, Nigeria and Equatorial Guinea, and strengthened joint military exercises and military equipments cooperation with Belarus, India and others.

One is to peddle the Indo-Pacific strategy conception, with the United States, Japan, India and Australia as the axis, in the name of assuring the free navigation and flying in the Indo-Pacific region, and strengthen military and strategic cooperation. Two is to release the U.S national security strategy report, defense strategy report, and nuclear posture review, emphasizing the maintenance of U.S. security, promoting the U.S. prosperity, safeguarding peace, enhancing nuclear deterrence, and upgrading the U.S. impact with strength, and viewing countries such as China and Russia as well as the DPRK and Iran, etc. together with terrorists all as the main challenges faced by the U.S. national security, showing strong cold war mentality.

II. Geo-political games and hot spots issues are interwoven, resulting in complexity of the regional security situation

The U.S. Trump Administration signals obvious posture of returning to the Mid-East, openly recognizes Jerusalem the Capital of Israel, having sharpened regional contradictions. Russia unites with Turkey and Iran to vigorously promote the peaceful process of the Syrian issue, running into intensified competition for dominance in the Mid-East with the United States in the post-IS era. The confrontation between two big blocs represented respectively by Saudi Arabia and Iran is continuously escalating. The intervention outside of the region is interwoven with the major countries confrontations and religious sects conflicts within the region, the traditional hot spots and potential risks co-exist, the instability and uncertainty inside the Mid-East is becoming apparent.

The hot spots such as Ukraine issue have become an important tool for Russia to check with and counter the United States and the West, which is getting warmed up with major countries games simultaneously. Terrorist organizations and extremists speed up their return to the Central Asia, interact with the local extremist force, thus triggering frequent terrorist attacks. The infiltration of outside extreme organizations plus the prominent social and economic contradictions caused by the economic downturn in the countries of these two regions deteriorate the regional security situations.

Since Europe and the United States have slashed a big cut on their security aid to Africa, chaos crops up here and there in African security situation. Kenyan gulf sees rampant piracy, with frequent pirate attacks on ships and kidnapping seamen, so maritime transportation safety is threatened. In Western Africa, drug smuggling, human smuggling and light weapons proliferation are getting worse. Sothern Africa, the Horn of Africa, and Sahara regions witness severe draughts, many countries are lack of water resources and face severe shortage of food. The countries in this region have obvious potential social problems, and a formidable tasks for maintaining stability.

The U.S. Trump Administration’s open suppression of the left-led government of Venezuela and Cuba get fermented with “internal strife” of the regional countries. The domestic political situation in Venezuela is continuously deteriorating, the anti-corruption campaign in Brazil getting escalated, the new administration policy concept is different with that of the left-wing parties in power in Equator, the political games between the left wing and right wing and the struggles between the parties in power and those in opposition intertwined, resulting in political and social turbulence, and touching on state-to-state relations adjustments, thus a decade-long relatively stable situation in Latin America sees chaos again.

III. Traditional and non-traditional security issues are interwoven, the commonality, interaction and spill-over effect of security issues become apparent, the international security governance confronts more challenges.

Local chaos and turbulence get more prominent, which strongly hits the existing international security order. Military budgets of various countries are on the increase rather than decrease, some major countries’ arms race and military confrontation are getting more and more intensified, the security hot spots such as North Korean nuclear issue, Ukraine crisis, the Mid-East chaos, etc., rise one after another, traditional security situation is complicated and stern.

The extremist force such as IS in Syria and Iraq is collapsing at the head-on fighting, but its spill-over effect is getting apparent. Extremists spread to various countries by breaking themselves up into small groups, threats of terrorist attacks are spreading rapidly across the world, Europe and the United States become the imminent targets of the spill-over terrorist attacks, the “imported” terrorism and the “locally born” terrorism are interwoven, whose harm is on the increase. Extremists, with the help of new high-tech such as internet, expand their influence, recruit new members, and deepen their poisonous influence on young people. The pressure of international community anti-terrorism is on the increase.

Various major countries are marching toward the new domains, grab strategic heights, and accelerate expansion to new domains such as cyber space, outer space, deep seas, Arctic, etc. The United States has speeded up the upgrading of cyber warfare operational organization, training and equipments, the cyber offense and defense get further independent, prepared for a combat, and specialized; conducted Schriever space military exercises regularly with NATO members, conducted space warfare stimulated exercises, adopted a “strategic framework” for outer space warfare and upgraded outer space confrontation capability. Germany and Russia have respectively established cyber space war operation and command, and building a cyber information high-end forces. Russia comprehensively pushes forward military building in the Arctic region, rebuilds air bases and radar stations set up in the USSR period, and strengthens control of the Arctic region.

The DPRK accelerates nuclear missiles development, and its missile technology makes obvious progress. Japan’s nuclear capability develops fast, and is able to produce nuclear weapons at any time. In Central Asia, and Central and Eastern European countries, several cases of radioactive materials smuggling were seized and solved, nuclear black market and terrorist organizations gang up with each other, nuclear safety faces stern challenges. Non-nuclear states strongly pushes the United Nations to start the negotiations on the Comprehensive Nuclear Weapons Ban Treaty, and adopt a draft, emphasizing that the signatories must ban using, R&D, possessing and transporting nuclear weapons, and recognize that using or threatening to use nuclear weapons is illegitimate and violates the law. However, the relevant negotiations and meetings meet resistance by the United States and Japan, Germany, South Korea and NATO countries under the U.S. nuclear umbrella as well as other major nuclear powers, so the differences on nuclear disarmament are difficult to reconcile.

Only 1/3 of the grants to respond to climate change for the developing countries by the developed countries is delivered; the U.S. Trump Administration’s announcement of withdrawal from the Paris Agreement has not only shaken the foundation for international climate governance, but also heavily damaged the confidence for international climate cooperation, the international climate governance mechanism meets with setbacks. The UN collective security mechanism demonstrates weakness and compromises on decision-making, peace keeping, arms control and disarmament as well as regional coordination. International rules, arms control treaties and confidence-building measures to maintain new domains’ strategic security and stability are not in shape, the existing bilateral and multilateral cooperation frameworks have a huge gap with the binding international treaties, the domain governance is short of binding mechanism.