Recognizing and Maintaining the Period of Strategic Opportunity for Development

Wang Fan

The report of the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China states that “Both China and the world are in the midst of profound and complex changes. China is still in an important period of strategic opportunity for development; the prospects are bright but the challenges are severe.”1Хi Jinping, “Secure a Decisive Victory in Вuilding a Moderately Prosperous Society in All Respects and Strive for the Great Success of Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era - Delivered at the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China,” October 18, 2017, http://www.хinhuanet.com/english/download/Хi_Jinping's_report_at_19th_CPC_National_Congress.pdf.A correct understanding of this assertion is of great significance for us in the comprehensive implementation of the Xi Jinping Diplomatic Thought, in realizing the Chinese Dream of national rejuvenation, and in promoting the building of a community with a shared future for mankind.

How to Recognize the Period of Strategic Opportunity

The study and recognition of the period of strategic opportunity for development lies at the core of our strategic planning, and has a direct bearing on the direction of strategic decision-making. In this complex and ever-changing international situation, it is more difficult and challenging to do this than ever before. As pointed out by General Secretary Xi Jinping at the Central Conference on Work Relating to Foreign Affairs in June 2018,to grasp the international landscape, it is necessary to establish a correct view of history, the overall situation and China's role.2“Хi Jinping Delivers Important Speech at the Central Conference on Work Relating to Foreign Affairs,”Xinhuа, June 23, 2018, http://www.хinhuanet.com/politics/leaders/2018-06/23/c_1123025806.htm.This will serve as an important guide for us to accurately study and recognize the period of strategic opportunity for development.

Understanding the general trend

Xi Jinping indicated at the abovementioned central conference that simply focusing on the current international situation is not enough; it's also necessary to review the past through the telescope of history, and summarize laws therefrom in order to look into the future and grasp the historical development trend.3Ibid.The current trend of the international situation is characterized by a gradual but inexorable transformation in the international system and the international landscape, in which the developing countries are on the rise while the influence of the West is on the decline. Although the overall global leadership of Western powers has weakened, newly emerging countries such as China are still not capable to take the place.Therefore, cooperative leadership will become the mainstream phenomenon.In the future, the world would possibly witness rivalry between traditional big powers and emerging countries with regard to the preservation and transformation of the existing international system. They may find themselves at loggerheads about keeping or reforming the present rules. There is a greater possibility that a post-Western order would come into being.

The transformation of the current international system is gradual with a protracted transition period. While the West-created and dominated system has been unable to adapt to changes of the international situation,the transformation would not be sudden or disruptive, but rather legitimate and orderly. The distribution of economic power and the adjustment of the rules of the international economic system have become key aspects of international political change.4Charles P. Kindleberger, Wоrld Eсоnоmiс Primасу: 1500～1990, Вeijing: Commercial Press, 2003, p.359.If the cost of that change is too high, the existing system will still be maintained despite flaws.5Robert Gilpin, Wаr аnd Сhаngе in Wоrld Pоlitiсs, Shanghai People's Publishing House, 2007, p.30.While the international order has entered a new round of evolution, the turning point has yet to emerge. As disruptive factors such as war are hard to be imagined in this long transition period, the turning point will not come easily.

History has shown that the decline of a hegemonic power is a slow and sometimes volatile process. Britain experienced two world wars before it completely lost its global hegemony, while the hegemony of the United States grew during the world wars and the Cold War, which were no small tests. Although it witnessed relative decline in the 1970s and suffered setbacks in several local wars, the US hegemonic status has been generally maintained. Despite the ongoing debate about whether the US is in decline,the prevailing view is that it is at best a relative decline, mainly reflected in its shrinking GDP advantage. However, the US remains a strong global leader in terms of military, technological, institutional and cultural influence.In addition, the extensive global alliance network also provides important support for American hegemony.

Grasping the essence

As elaborated by Xi, one should not only examine the passing phenomena and details when analyzing the international situation, but also needs to understand the underlying dynamics and the larger perspective. It is important to grasp the main contradictions and the main aspects of those contradictions, and avoid getting lost in a pursuit of unimportant issues in the endless and ever-shifting international chaos.6“Хi Jinping Delivers Important Speech at the Central Conference on Work Relating to Foreign Affairs.”The key to understanding the current global trend lies in having a keen appreciation of the power relationships, which include not only the changing balance of power among the world's major countries, but also the evolution of factors that strengthen power, as well as the overall trend in the function of power.

The balance of power among the world's major countries is undergoing profound changes. The overall rise of emerging countries has led to the rise of the East and the decline of the West in global balance of power. In this context, the continuous growth of China, as a positive contributor to the international community, can help emerging countries play a greater role. The international landscape created by the interactions of these major powers is an important factor in studying the period of strategic opportunity.Traditional theory would have it that a transfer of power is closely correlated with the factors that would contribute to a systemic war. However, as countries become more interdependent, wars have become highly restricted while the role of institutional construction and improvement has become more prominent.

The composing factors of power have become more multi-faceted.While military still plays a significant role, it is not equal to the overall strength and influence of a state. On the contrary, models of national development and practices of external cooperation have increasingly contributed to a country's power, and science and technology, economy,and culture have also witnessed their roles enhanced. Generally, the new trend calls for a composite perspective that emphasizes the overall effects of numerous factors, the analysis of each factor's relative influence, as well as the interaction among the various factors. The perspective is by no means simply throwing all the factors together. Rather, a comprehensive analysis is carried out by fully considering the interaction and changes of the factors in the system, especially the influence those changes have on the general situation.

Given the general trend in the functioning of power, it is also necessary to think holistically. Changes in national strengths undoubtedly have a profound impact on the international situation, but it cannot be the only reference point in judging the course of development. The prospects for a power redistribution depend not only on the strengths of individual countries, but also on the role of new multilateral institutions. Therefore,one must pay attention to the combined, accumulative, chain and non-linear effects at the systemic level.

Power still plays an important role, but under the influence of power politics theory, people tend to focus on the rise and fall of state power while ignoring other non-material factors. In other words, the power politics theory, deliberately disregards the interaction of multiple factors for the sake of simplifying its discourse. In fact, some global challenges are not identical with the difficulties facing individual countries. Population imbalance,wealth gap, immigration policy, climate change, health security governance,among other global issues, will influence national policies, and surely limit each country's options in the future.

Identifying China's role

To have a keen appreciation of the international situation, Xi said,we should not only soberly analyze various international phenomena, but also put ourselves in the picture, and understand the issues in the context of China's relations with the rest of the world, in order to determine China's status and role in the development of the world structure and formulate China's foreign policy in a rigorous manner.7Xi Jinping Delivers Important Speech at the Central Conference on Work Relating to Foreign Affairs.”In the evolution of international balance of power, China, as a new variable in the global equation, has attracted wide attention. China's growing strength has raised its international status. With a greater role in the international community,China has become an important player on the world stage. At present,China's GDP ranks second in the world and contributes over 30 percent to world economic growth. In addition, China is the world's largest trading country in goods, possesses the largest foreign exchange reserves and is the second largest foreign investor. In view of China's increasing strength, both developed countries and blocs like the United States and the European Union, and emerging markets and developing countries, hope to deepen cooperation and strengthen coordination with China. Various players find themselves in greater need of China. China's voice and influence on major international issues, such as global economic governance, environment and climate change, has grown stronger, which was unimaginable a decade ago.8Zhang Yunling and Shao Binhong, eds., Тhе Intеrnаtiоnаl Envirоnmеnt fоr Сhinа's Pеriоd оf Strаtеgiс Oрроrtunitу, Social Sciences Academic Presss, 2014, p. 209.

There is no doubt that the China variable is objectively changing the current international system and major-country relations. However, China's power to influence the world is still limited: its ability to transfer strength and resources into problem-solving capabilities has yet to be improved;and while the US appears to be shirking responsibilities in global affairs somewhat, it does not mean that China can fully take over. As argued by Canadian scholar Amitav Acharya, “the end of the American century” does not mean that emerging powers can fill the vacuum either individually or collectively.9Amitav Acharya, Тhе End оf Аmеriсаn Wоrld Ordеr, trans. by Yuan Zhengqing, et al., Shanghai People's Publishing House, 2017, pp.40-41.For at least the next decade, countries like China will still be unable to change US dominance of the world system. Moreover, while China's role in the multilateral arena is growing, it is not playing a leading role in most instances. The major initiatives and mechanisms proposed by China, such as the Belt and Road Initiative, the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), and the Free Trade Area of the Asia-Pacific(FTAAP), as well as some principles it puts forward in dealing with international relations, such as the community with a shared future for mankind and a new type of international relations, are all useful supplements to the current international order. They coexist and prosper together with existing international organizations and international norms.

As the largest developing country and the largest developed country in the world respectively, China and the US find their gap in overall national strength narrowing, which has provided more space for China to develop and manage major-country relations. China still enjoys a favorable period of strategic opportunity thanks to changes in the external environment and the enhancement of its own capabilities. In terms of the balance of power,China's growing strength are significant not only economically but also politically. At the same time, the United States' global influence remains despite its relative decline in strength, and its conservative policies could still have significant implications for the international situation. The EU continues to be an important force in the international community, neither defunct nor collapsed. Therefore, the development of the international order is slowly approaching a turning point at best. This profoundly demonstrate Xi's point that China today is moving closer to the center of the world stage than ever before and the Chinese people “are closer, more confident, and more capable than ever before of making the goal of national rejuvenation a reality.”10“Хi Says Achieving National Rejuvenation Will Вe ‘No Walk in the Park',” Сhinа Dаilу, October 18,2017, http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/china/19thcpcnationalcongress/2017-10/18/content_33406202.htm.

China Still in Important Period of Strategic Opportunity

The risk of war, the evolution of the international structure, and the trend of the times are main factors for comprehensive study of the period of strategic opportunity. After an analysis of these factors and their influence on China's development, we can conclude that China will remain in the period for some time to come.

Risk of great-power war relatively low

The risk of war is one of the most critical factors in the study and recognition of the period of strategic opportunity. It is also a decisive issue when it comes to China's ability to defend the theme of the times, namely peace and development. At present, the risk of war between nations still exists due to historical, realistic, ethnic and religious factors, but is generally not rising. The international community is presently faced with the severe challenge of intersecting traditional and non-traditional security threats which will remain protracted and thus calls for international cooperation.The probability of war between major countries is lower than that between major and small countries or between small countries.

The possibility of a systemic war between great powers remains low as well. Nuclear weapons and technological revolution have increased the destructive power of war in an unprecedented way, which makes the cost of war simply unbearable. The new concepts of mutually assured destruction(MAD) and “war without winners” have greatly restricted and reduced the possibility of wars between great powers. Conventional or local wars between major powers are also greatly limited by the mutual deterrence of nuclear weapons and the danger of escalation to the nuclear level. However, with the intensification of competition and conflicts, the forms of conflict between great powers have become increasingly diversified. One of these forms is regional conflict in the form of “proxy wars” involving smaller nations. There is no shortage of great-power intervention in the wars now occurring in the Middle East, and it is difficult to get rid of strategic considerations of greatpower regional dominance in the territorial disputes over islands in East Asia.In addition, some non-traditional kinds of “war” in trade, cyberspace and financial area will become the main forms of great-power competition, and the damage caused therefrom may be higher than traditional wars.

Of course, wars can also occur because of strategic miscalculations or contingencies. A RAND study believes that the risk of war is transmittable in that it brings fear and pressure, making policymakers more prone to miscalculations and wrong decisions. Nevertheless, such wars can be limited to a certain extent through various crisis management mechanisms, instead of triggering a world war between great powers.11“RAND: China-US Conflict Вecomes More Likely,” Liаnhе Zаоbао, October 26, 2017, http://www.zaobao.com/news/world/story20171026-805901.Besides the various forms of warfare, a hegemonic power may also adopt other ways to cope with rising states. In the 1980s, the United States gave Japan a heavy blow through economic means, making its economy sluggish for a long time and eliminating its threat to the US. The recent China-US trade frictions are, to some extent, reminiscent of the US-Japan story.

Evolution of international landscape generally favorable

The evolution of the international landscape is affected by many factors, among which the changing global balance of power is considered the harbinger of a coming power transfer and an important variable for studying the period of strategic opportunity. After the global financial crisis in 2008,adjustments of the international balance of power accelerated, and the world witnessed the collective rise of emerging countries. With its GDP ranking second in the world, China has become an important engine of the world economy. Although the global structure of “one superpower with many strong powers” remains, the “superpower” has been in decline while countries have been on and off the list of “strong powers” over time. The collective rise of emerging countries and the relative decline of Western countries as a whole have accelerated changes in the international order. The trend of a rising East and a declining West is providing China and other countries with more development opportunities.

Major-country relations stable on the whole

Intensified relations between major powers are inevitable amid the transition of the international system. Currently, the United States, as the single superpower, still predominates with the West remaining stronger than the East and the North stronger than the South. Changes in the balance of power, however, have, to some extent, affected inter-state relations, especially those between major countries. The conflict now is centered on the fact that the US wants to maintain its dominant position while the strength of other countries is growing rapidly.

At present, the China-US relations are undergoing profound and complex changes. The National Security Strategy, the National Defense Strategy, and the Nuclear Posture Review successively released by the Trump administration have defined China and Russia as strategic rivals. There is bipartisan consensus that the previous policy of engagement with China has failed. Nevertheless, the interdependence between the two countries as well as the foundation of their long-term cooperation will still act as a brake on conflicts. The concurrence of cooperation and competition in the relationship will also continue. For China, it is particularly important to actively maintain strategic stability between the two countries.

The trilateral relationship between China, the United States and Russia will not devolve into a scenario where two relatively strong parties contest for the support of the weak one. While China and Russia are not allies, their comprehensive strategic partnership of coordination is expected to grow. The fact that the US regards China and Russia as strategic rivals will objectively reinforce the mutual reliance between Beijing and Moscow. Besides, the China-Japan relations have shown signs of rapprochement since the second half of 2017. The China-India relations have improved significantly since the meeting between the two heads of state in Wuhan in April this year.

According to the current growth of the economic, military and technological strengths of major global powers during the next five to ten years, the major countries will focus primarily on all-round diplomacy. The development of major-country relations and new power structures will not make progress at the expense of undermining another set of major-country relations. Therefore, stability will become the general feature of majorcountry relations. While changes are witnessed in the balance of power, no country has reached the point of replacing another. The BRICS, G20 and traditional multilateral mechanisms will continue to develop side by side.As the gap between major powers gradually narrows, the countries will find themselves in a more complicated architecture, where they will both rely on one other and hold one another in check. Competitive engagement will still be the primary form of interaction between major powers.

Trend of globalization not to be reversed

Generally, the wave of globalization has accelerated world economic development and enhanced human well-being. However, from a historical perspective, globalization is always in a state of constant adjustment and change, and its development and evolution has fully reflected the new balance of global power formed in the rise and fall of individual countries.12Jeffrey D. Sachs, “The Shifting Global Landscape,” Воstоn Glоbе, January 22, 2017, http://www.bostonglobe.com/opinion/2017/01/22/the-shifting-global-landscape/O844Wwn9EYsВ5yХGSVPkLK/story.html?s_campaign=bdc:globewell:opinion.At present, globalization has entered a new stage. While rising stars like China are constantly pushing it forward, traditional powers have begun to embrace trade protectionism. However, the globalization process will not be reversed despite the strong wave of opposition.

First, the changing trend of globalization today should not be regarded as a retrogression or reversal of globalization, but rather as an adjustment.“Transformation” seems a more accurate and reasonable word to describe the phenomenon. The artificial hindrance on the free flow and natural allocation of resources will not interrupt the already deepened trend of economic globalization. Second, state actors have always played an important role in the process of globalization, and their political influence is now further strengthened. The forces of populism and protectionism are on the rise, but they are far from becoming the prevailing opinion of different countries or the strategic choice of major powers. Third, directly impacted by the tortuous process of regional integration and in the context of multipolarization, globalization has become localized centered on different regions. Fourth, the positive effect of interdependence on globalization is likely to weaken with the rise of anti-globalization and trade protectionism,but it will still play a positive role in constraining potential conflicts among most countries. Fifth, the new round of globalization, which focuses on infrastructure construction in developing countries, is mainly driven by emerging powers. Acharya believes that China's rise and development will lead globalization into a new model. Different from the past when the focus was on trade, the new type of globalization will devote more attention to investment, infrastructure construction and common development. While globalization was largely dominated by Western countries in the past, the Eastern world will shoulder more leadership in the new type of globalization,with countries like China and India playing a bigger role.13Amitav Acharya, “The End of the American World Order and the Advent of a Multipleх World,” Wоrld Eсоnоmiсs аnd Pоlitiсs, No.6, 2017, pp.14-25; Amitav Acharya, “Trump and the End of the American World Order,” Nankai Journal (Philosophy and Social Sciences), No.3, 2017, pp.8-13.

As economic globalization enters a new round of adjustment, the global industrial chain, remedial mechanisms as well as global governance will witness changes accordingly, leading globalization into a transitional period.

While the driving force of traditional developed nations weakens, emerging countries have become the new growth engines of globalization, and will bring about renewed ideas that are more attuned to their development, with more emphasis on fairness, justice and balanced development.

Maintaining and Extending the Period of Strategic Opportunity

In an objective analysis of the current and future international situation,we can conclude that China is still in a period of strategic opportunity. As pointed out by Xi Jinping, “China is in the best development period since modern times, while the world is undergoing a transformation unseen in the past century. The two trends are intertwined and mutually reinforcing.China is blessed with many favorable international conditions for conducting diplomatic work at present and in the future.”14“Хi Jinping Delivers Important Speech at the Central Conference on Work Relating to Foreign Affairs.”However, it is undeniable that with the resurgence of realism and the transformation of economic globalization, it is obviously more difficult to maintain this period of strategic opportunity.

As China's power and influence grow, so do the external pressure and competition it faces. Besides seizing opportunities and making achievements,China should also avoid risks, especially potential major strategic risks.Also at the 2018 Central Conference on Work Relating to Foreign Affairs,Xi Jinping stressed that “When dealing with foreign affairs, we should keep in mind both our internal and international imperatives, maintain strategic confidence and resolve, advance the innovation of diplomatic theories and practices, strengthen strategic planning and global layout, resolutely defend core and major national interests, adhere to win-win cooperation, uphold justice while pursuing our interests, stick to bottom lines, and always be aware of possible risks.”15Ibid.This is an important guiding principle to make the most of the period of strategic opportunity.

In order to maintain and prolong the period of strategic opportunity,China, as it looks into the development of the international situation, should identify the order of seriousness of its various national threats, and carry out well-directed design, mobilization, deployment, allocation as response to the threats. It is recommended that the following measures be strengthened and improved.

First, advancing in-depth reforms in a systematic and holistic manner.China must guard against systemic failures and stress overall stability and development. In the new era, China must have the big picture in mind in order to carry out large-scale arrangements on a broad canvas. Issues must be considered and understood in a global context to expand the strategic maneuvering space. Amid major changes unprecedented in the past century,China must now involve itself deeply in the adjustment and reshaping of the international system, strengthen global governance capabilities, provide more and better Chinese wisdom and Chinese solutions, and make the international order more just and rational. In the new round of globalization,the United States has shown a tendency to shirk its responsibilities, which is both an opportunity and a risk for China. China should deeply participate in global governance and actively guide the reforms of the international order.At the same time, it should properly manage the dynamic balance and trend factors that may lead to systemic dysfunction, prepare for potential passive involvement in undesirable situations, take the initiative in the shifting currents, and act in accordance with the trend of the times.

Second, achieving greater development and enhancing strategic capabilities. As a Chinese saying goes, “it takes a good blacksmith to make good steel.” A stronger country is in itself the greatest opportunity for China,and this necessitates focusing resources on domestic issues. Meanwhile,China needs to share its opportunities with the rest of the world and turn the world's opportunities into China's own.16“Liu Yandong: China's Development is the World's Opportunity,” Xinhuа, November 25, 2016, http://www.хinhuanet.com/world/2016-11/25/c_1119990468.htm.With the CPC's strong leadership and the advantage in comprehensively mobilizing strategic resources, China should more actively arrange and deploy these strategic resources, and accelerate the conversion of the resources into effective strategic capabilities.

It is the core issue in grasping the period of strategic opportunity to more effectively realize the transformation. The key to major-country diplomacy with Chinese characteristics also lies in transferring national strengths into strategic capabilities, and matching China's rising power with its international influence. This requires China to give full play to its wholenation system and concentrate limited resources on major tasks and areas of greatest urgency and strategic significance. China needs to grasp new frontier areas, take the initiative, and make overall planning and consideration to realize leapfrog development.

Third, promoting a new type of international relations. The key to building a new type of international relations lies in balancing the relations with major countries and with developing countries, and creating a favorable model of mutual promotion and interaction. To achieve this, China should first properly coordinate its relations with other major countries. During this transitional period in the evolution of the international system, majorcountry relations have undergone gradual yet profound changes. It is of vital importance for China to resolve the problems in its relations with the US and regional hotspot issues. Beijing needs to seek new breakthroughs in this regard.

At the same time, China needs to promote inclusive and interactive development with other developing countries. China's development cooperation in Africa, Latin America and Southeast Asia bears on the overall situation of its future development strategy. By strengthening positive interaction with major countries and maintaining overall momentum of emerging countries, China's development will be incorporated in the collective progress of emerging countries, and help drive their growth. To build a new type of international relations, it is necessary to assist those smaller and weaker countries and work together with larger and stronger ones. Efforts should be made to seek development with other developing countries, and transform the situation where great powers bully the small and weak into one that pursues coordinated development.

Fourth, building a holistic, comprehensive, multi-level geopolitical and economic environment. While China's strategic choices must have a global perspective, the Asia-Pacific region will remain its geopolitical priority. For China to make the most of the present period of strategic opportunity, the key issue is to properly handle the overlapping risks in the surrounding areas and conflicts in major-country relations. In terms of strategic layout, China should not only focus on the priorities, but also stress diversity and the multifaceted nature of each issue to prevent new strategic vacuum and build a political and economic environment in which China works with countries of the North and keeps stable relations with those of the South, maintaining close and cooperative relations with countries near and far.

Through the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), China has provided impetus to the peace and cooperation of the Eurasian continent, while developing the Free Trade Area of the Asia-Pacific centered on the Pacific Ocean. The BRI is an important starting point to build the community with a shared future for mankind. While promoting cooperation and connectivity between regions, it also brings the geopolitical core areas together.

China should continue to play a positive role in international security.Contributing the most peacekeeping forces to the UN, China has been actively maintaining stability and promoting peace in a number of regional hotspots.China's contribution to peacekeeping has been fully recognized by the international community, and relevant inputs should be further increased.

Fifth, properly managing the balance between interdependence and strategic autonomy. As China develops and grows, so does its dependence on the outside world. In this context, it is of vital importance to properly deal with the relationship between interdependence and strategic autonomy.Economically, China needs to have greater autonomy and leeway, and rely primarily on the domestic market, thus increasing its strategic options which would be limited by excessive dependence on external markets.

Sixth, enhancing the community with a shared future for mankind.The vision of the community with a shared future for mankind emphasizes the concepts of broad consultation, joint contribution and shared benefits.China believes that every form of beauty is unique, and that if beauty is manifested with diversity and integrity, the world will be blessed with harmony and unity. Such a community must stick to helping others when they are in need, rather than making troubles for those who are already in crisis. China upholds a policy of win-win cooperation rather than that of a zero-sum game. In the face of gap between the rich and the poor,which has become a problem in globalization, China has been promoting balanced development of different countries to advance transformation of globalization. China should join hands with other countries to make global public goods serve different countries as equals, thus promoting the building of the community with a shared future for mankind.

Conclusion

As a major developing country, China, in its rise, is bound to impact the existing international power and interest structures and brings a tremendous shock to the international system.17Hu Jian, “China's Path of Peaceful Development: Historical Logic, Вasic Eхperience, and Prospects,”Exрlоrаtiоn аnd Frее Viеws, No.7, 2013, pp.38-43.For a long time to come, China will develop in an environment of resistance. In this context, China should seize opportunities and make active efforts, but also act within its capacity to avoid risks. To grasp the period of strategic opportunity, it is necessary to expand its reserve of strategic plans, while enhancing the ability to address emergent crises from a strategic height. At the same time, decisions should be made more scientifically and errors be corrected in a fast and effective manner. While amid crises or chaos China should avoid making strategic mistakes or taking measures that might inflame the situation, in an ascending period it should also view critically the temptation to fill the strategic vacuum and avoid untoward actions. Facing the historic period of major development, major changes and major adjustment, China must guard against major conflicts, strengthen strategic analysis and prediction, seek order and appropriateness in chaos, and properly grasp favorable trends and situations in the changing world.