尤瓦尔·赫拉利：未来预言家

2017-10-15ByJoshGlancy译/郭宇

新东方英语 2017年10期

By+Josh+Glancy+译/郭宇

很多人腦海里都曾冒出过“人类为何能统治地球”“世界将变成什么样”这样的问题，但因为这些问题太过宏大，我们常常将之抛诸脑后，转而关注衣食住行等现实问题。可是有一个人，他始终孜孜不倦地到人类的历史中去寻找答案，探寻生命的意义，思考人类的命运，并对未来人类可能面临的问题提出警告，他就是畅销书《人类简史》的作者尤瓦尔·赫拉利。

We are living through a new age of instability. The pace of our lives， the pace of change， the introduction of new technologies—augmented reality， virtual reality， wearable technology， artificial intelligence—is bewildering at best2）. To many it is deeply unsettling.

Power has shifted from traditional institutions to elaborate Silicon Valley campuses in north California. Googles inanimate algorithm has more impact on the success or failure of a modern business than any industrial strategy cooked up3） in Westminster. Some say this is just the beginning， that we are weaving4） unthinkingly towards the singularity5）， the moment when machines become more intelligent than us， with only a few tech visionaries having any sort of plan for where we might be headed.

These are the views of Yuval Noah Harari， the 40-year-old Israeli historian who has become something of a prophet when it comes to explaining our past and predicting our future. He is the seer loved by Silicon Valley who doesnt have a smartphone or use social media. The man who spends months at a time in silent meditation before emerging to write books that strike at the heart of the modern condition.

Hararis breakthrough book， Sapiens： A Brief History of Humankind， became an international bestseller in 2014， after spending three years at the top of the Israeli charts. Its a remarkable piece of work that explains how a middling6） primate7） from East Africa conquered the planet in just a few dozen millennia.

His basic theory states that it is our capacity for telling stories that has made us great. Chimpanzees， who share so much of our genetic data， cannot operate effectively in groups larger than 150. But Homo sapiens8） can. We use our language skills to create mutual myths—money， religion， nationhood—that bind us together and allow us to co-operate on a mass scale.

Sapiens was eventually bumped off the top of the Israeli bestseller charts by Hararis latest work， Homo Deus： A Brief History of Tomorrow. In it， he steps into the present， then the future， seeking to explain our current sense of instability and where our planets master species may be headed.

The success of Sapiens transformed Harari from an obscure academic specialising in crusader history into a world-famous intellectual. There have been TED talks， big-money publishing deals and invitations to speak at top universities and Google. Bill Gates praised his book and Mark Zuckerberg put it on his reading list.endprint

Readers of Sapiens will not be surprised to hear that he thinks our future looks fairly bleak.

“What is happening at the moment is that the narrative is collapsing，” he says. “Before 1991， there was the narrative of the Cold War. Then the Cold War ended and the new narrative was globalisation， liberal democracy and the need for everybody to adopt the breakthroughs of science and technology. This narrative ensures that gradually all nations will become like western Europe and America.”

However， there is a problem with this story， says Harari. “It just doesnt work. It works for some countries， for some people， but it doesnt work for a lot of countries， and even in the West its no longer working. What we are seeing is the collapse of the story， and when you dont have a story of what is happening in the world， there is insecurity， there is confusion.”

This is typical Harari—humans are nowhere without a good story. The other reason for our insecurity is， of course， technology， which is causing rapid， disorientating change that our creaking institutions simply cannot accommodate.

Harari is not the easiest company. I meet him twice to talk about his latest book， once for lunch and once for breakfast. His manner is clipped9）， self-contained and serious. Physically， he is small， skinny， almost shrunken. There is not a hint of the charismatic salesman typical of so many modish10） intellectuals.

Over three hours of conversation， I extract just one smile from him. He does have a sense of humour， but it is ever so dry. His accented English is superb—he translates his own books from Hebrew. He talks a bit like Henry Kissinger11）： thoughts emerge as fully formed paragraphs， without hesitation or pause for thought.

Six years ago， Harari was an unknown lecturer at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem. As a junior academic， he got lumbered with12） one of the least popular courses to teach—world history. Harari loved it. His mind began seeing connections， joining up the dots of world history， carving a narrative through the vast mass of knowledge. He started writing a book.

What elevates Harari above many chroniclers of our age is his exceptional clarity and focus. He has always been an intense person. He was born near Haifa， in northern Israel； his father was an engineer and his mother an administrator—neither were scholars. He was always interested in “the big questions，” but he believes that it was taking up meditation that gave him the rare ability to tell a grand story without digression13）， waffle14） or tangent15）.endprint

Between environmental disasters， robot takeovers and political decay， lunch with Harari can be a bit of a downer16）. He says hes not a pessimist， instead seeing his work as a “corrective” to the optimism of the tech utopians. But undoubtedly he takes a darker view than most.

He doesnt fit the Israeli male stereotype—loud， ebullient17）， difficult—but there is something in his bluntness and in his unsparing18） views that is characteristic of those who have grown up in a tough country where there is little patience for circumlocution19）. “When you grow up in Israel and the Middle East you always feel insecure，” he says. “Insecurity is kind of your comfort zone.”

Thinking things through is what Harari says most of us today are not doing enough of. Instead of planning for an uncertain future， we are “stuck in the comfort zone” of 20th-century discussions， simply because that is what we understand.

The only people with the faintest idea what is going on are in Silicon Valley， which is where he believes the religions of tomorrow are developing.

“Im interested in the visions， in the ideology and the mythology that these people are creating. I think many of them are quite naive， because they have no background in philosophy and history， so you get the kind of visions that you expect engineers to produce. But I dont think they are evil. It is very good that they are taking what they are doing seriously and trying to think creatively about the future. The problem is that they are not balanced by other people， other leaders， who offer alternative visions.”

Data， privacy， job automation and a basic income， the ethics of artificial intelligence， how technology can help the environment and the poor： These are the kinds of issues that Harari thinks should be dominating our politics. Much power has been transferred to big tech， yet still we rail at20） the old elites. Why？

“Partly because most people dont realise what is happening，” he says. “They are very happy to have their iPhones and to have email and to have access everywhere， all the time. They dont see that they are really giving away their most important possession， which is their data.”

“In the same way that in the early modern period you had the European imperialists coming to Africa and buying entire countries for a few beads， now we give away our most important possession， our data， to Google and Facebook in return for funny cat videos. People dont realise whats at stake.”endprint

The changes Harari outlines， and our failure to adapt to the pace of them， could have some fairly terrifying consequences. He sees huge job loss due to automation as highly likely and “very scary，” resulting in the creation of a “useless class” comprising billions of people devoid of any economic or political value.

Harari identifies two ideological trends emerging from Silicon Valley. The first is “dataism”—the almost religious preeminence21） of information and algorithms that will eventually replace our human instincts when it comes to decision-making. The second he calls “techno-humanism.” He argues that todays liberal humanism is an extension of Jewish and Christian belief in the soul. These religions maintained that each soul was precious because it was created by God. Today， more of us believe that the soul was created by evolution， but still we value it as the most precious thing in the universe， hence our attachment to human rights. Techno-humanism extends this further. Such is our obsession with human life， we will do anything to sustain， lengthen and protect it.

Harari believes that this quest for immortality will lead us to upgrade ourselves biologically. The story we have told ourselves about our eternal souls could lead us to destroy humanity as we know it.

These upgrades currently exist in things like the US army helmets that use augmented reality to speed up decision-making. But much more is on the way. Nano robots may search our blood for pathogens22） to destroy. Human brains might be connected to the internet， able to call on its wealth of knowledge simply by thinking about it.

Harari points out that there is the possibility of great inequality built into all this. In a world where almost all jobs are automated， the elites will have little use for the masses. Biological upgrades will not be shared equally， potentially creating a “cognitive elite” that will view the rest of mankind with the same superiority that sapiens once reserved for Neanderthals23）.

Despite his technological doomsaying， Harari is not a determinist. He believes that technology may bring us good things too， such as wildly efficient renewable energy sources and the ability to use 3D-printing technology to make food. He also believes that we should take responsibility for our actions. “If people are concerned， then they should look at their lives and the decisions they are making； about merging with their smartphones and their computers， and transferring authority to computer algorithms.”endprint

If Harari is even half right about all of this， then our age of instability may just be beginning. But like all the best prophets， he is delivering his warning just in time for us to change our ways. “Its not something that will happen in thousands of years，” he says. “It is a timescale of decades， not millennia. If we want to do something about it， we should start thinking about it now. In 30 years it will be too late.”

我们正生活在一个不稳定的新时代。即使从最乐观的方面看，人们生活的节奏、变化的速度以及增强现实、虚拟现实、可穿戴技术、人工智能等新技术的引入都令人感到困惑。很多人为此深感不安。

权力已经从传统机构转移到了加州北部硅谷地区各公司精心设计的园区。谷歌公司开发的无生命的算法比英国政府策划的任何工业战略都更能影响一家现代企业的成败。有些人说这只是一个开始，人类正在不假思索地朝着机器比人类更加智能的那个时刻——“奇点”——迂回前进，至于我们将去往何方，只有技术领域少数有远见卓识的人对此有所规划。

这些正是尤瓦尔·诺亚·赫拉利的观点。要论解释人类的过去以及预测人类的未来，这位40岁（编注：英文原文发表于2016年8月）的以色列历史学家已经成了一名先知。他是硅谷的宠儿，一位没有智能手机、不使用社交媒体的预言家。赫拉利曾连续数月静思冥想，然后出山写了一本直击现代社会要害的书。

赫拉利的突破性著作《人类简史》在2014年登上了国际畅销书榜，此前三年，该书一直高居以色列畅销书榜首位。这是一部非凡的作品，解释了人类这种平凡的灵长目动物如何在十几万年的时间里走出东部非洲，征服了这个星球。

赫拉利的基本理论是，人类之所以伟大，是因为我们具有讲故事的能力。黑猩猩的遗传数据与人类非常相似，可它们无法有效维持超过150只的群体。但是智人则可以。我们使用语言技能来创造共有的神话——金钱、宗教和国家。这些神话将人类联系在一起，使人们能够大规模合作。

《人类简史》最终被挤下了以色列畅销书榜首位，取而代之的是赫拉利的新作《未来简史》。在这本书中，赫拉利从当代落笔，然后写到了未来，试图解释人类当前的不稳定感以及未来可能的走向。

《人类简史》的成功将赫拉利从一位专攻十字军历史研究的名不见经传的学者转变成世界知名的知识分子。他在TED大会上进行演讲，签订高额的著作出版合同，并受邀在顶尖大学和谷歌公司发表演说。他的书受到了比尔·盖茨的称赞，并被马克·扎克伯格列入自己的阅读书单。

赫拉利认为人类的未来看上去相当凄惨，对于那些读过《人类简史》的读者们来说，这并不令人惊讶。

“目前正在发生的是，叙事正在瓦解，”他说，“1991年以前的叙事是冷战。冷战结束，新的叙事变成了全球化、自由民主以及每个人都需要接受科技突破。在这种叙事下，所有国家都将逐渐变成类似西欧和美国这样的国家。”

然而，赫拉利认为这个故事存在问题。“这根本行不通。它适用于一些国家、一些民族，但对很多国家来说，这种叙事并不奏效，即使在西方世界也不再灵验。我们看到的是故事的塌陷，当人们没有故事来讲述世界正在发生的事情时，不安全感和困惑就产生了。”

这是典型的赫拉利式思想——没有一个好的故事，人类将无路可走。人类不安全感的另一個原因自然是技术。技术进步正在导致迅速的变化，使人们迷失方向，我们决策迟缓的各种机构根本无法适应。

与赫拉利相处并不容易。我和他见过两次面，谈论他的新书，一次吃午饭，一次吃早餐。他言语简练，严肃又认真。他外表又矮又瘦，几乎可用“干瘪”来形容，完全不符合时下许多时髦知识分子那种“有魅力的推销员”的形象。

超过三个小时的谈话中，我只从他那儿索取到一个微笑。他确实有幽默感，但领会起来实在不易。他的英语略带口音，但水平极高——他把自己的书从希伯来文翻译成英文。他说话有点像亨利·基辛格：想法呈现为完整的段落，没有犹豫，也不用停下来思考。

六年前，赫拉利还是耶路撒冷希伯来大学一位不知名的讲师。作为资历尚浅的学者，他不得不承担最不受欢迎的课程之一——世界史。但赫拉利喜欢这门课。他逐渐看到了事物之间的联系，他把世界历史的分散事件连接起来，利用广泛的知识形成叙事。然后他开始写书。

赫拉利超越了我们这个时代很多编年史作家，因为他的观点特别清晰且专注。赫拉利是一个一贯认真的人。他出生于以色列北部城市海法附近。父亲是一名工程师，母亲是一名管理人员，两人都不是学者。他总是对“大问题”感兴趣，但他认为是冥想给了他罕见的能力，使他能够描述宏大的故事，既不跑题，也不会含糊其辞或笔锋突变。

与赫拉利共进午餐有点令人沮丧，我们的谈话围绕着环境灾难、机器人接管和政治衰退展开。他说自己不是一个悲观主义者，而是将自己的工作视为对技术空想家盲目乐观的“纠正”。但无疑，他比大多数人的看法更悲观。

他并不符合以色列男性喧哗、兴高采烈、难以相处的固有形象，但他的率直和不加掩饰的个人观点正是那些在艰苦国家长大的人的特点，在那里没有人容忍委婉的说辞。“如果你在以色列和中东地区长大，你总是感觉不安全，”他说，“不安全有点像是你的舒适区。”

赫拉利认为，我们今天的大部分人都缺乏足够透彻的思考。我们没有对不确定的未来进行规划，而是“陷入”20世纪各种讨论的“舒适区”中，仅仅是因为我们只能理解这些。endprint

唯一一群对当下所发生的变化略有思考的人们身处硅谷，因此赫拉利认为那里才是未来宗教正在形成的地方。

“我对这些人正在创造的愿景、思想观念和神话感兴趣。我认为他们中的很多人非常天真，因为他们没有哲学和历史学的背景，所以你得到的都是一些工程师想象出的愿景。但我不认为他们本意是恶的。他们认真对待正在做的事情，并尝试创造性地思考未来，这是非常好的。问题是他们没有被提出替代愿景的其他人、其他领导者加以均衡。”

数据、隐私、工作自动化、基本收入、人工智能的伦理以及技术如何改善环境并帮助穷人——这些才是赫拉利认为应该主导我们政治的问题。大量的权力已经转移到科技大佬手里，而我们仍然在抱怨那些传统精英阶层，为什么？

“部分原因是因为大多数人都没有意识到正在发生的事情，”他说，“他们非常高兴拥有自己的iPhone、电子邮件，并能随时随地登录互联网。但他们没有看到，他们正在放弃自己最重要的财产——自己的数据。”

“就像现代文明早期，欧洲帝国主义者来到非洲，用几串珠子就能买下整个国家一样，如今我们正把自己最重要的财产泄露给谷歌和Facebook，我们拿自身的数据来换取搞笑的猫咪视频。人们没有意识到其中的危险。”

赫拉利所概述的各种变化以及人们未能适应变化的步伐这一事实，可能会引发一些相当可怕的后果。他预测工作岗位将很可能因自动化生产而大量消失，这“非常可怕”，一个包含数十亿人的“无用阶层”将由此诞生，这些人没有任何经济或政治价值。

赫拉利明确了硅谷正在形成的两种意识形態趋势。第一种是“数据主义”——信息和算法近乎宗教般的优势终将在决策阶段取代我们的人类本能。第二种他称之为“技术人道主义”。他认为，今天的自由人文主义是延续犹太教和基督教对灵魂的信仰。这两种宗教认为每个灵魂都是宝贵的，因为是由上帝创造的。如今，我们更多地认为人是通过进化演变而来的，但我们仍然认为人是宇宙中最珍贵的，因此我们追求人权。技术人文主义对此加以发扬光大。这是我们对人类生命摆脱不了的情感，我们会做任何事情来维持、延长和保护它。

赫拉利认为，对永生的不懈追求将引导人类在生物层面自我升级。人类为自身编织的灵魂永生的故事可能会导致我们毁掉现有的人类。

这些升级目前已经存在，例如美国陆军研发的头盔使用了增强现实技术来加快决策。但还有更多的技术正在研发之中。纳米机器人可以搜寻我们血液中的病原体并加以破坏。人类的大脑可能会连接到互联网，届时人们只需通过思考就能够访问互联网的知识宝库。

赫拉利指出，所有这一切有可能引发巨大的不平等。在几乎所有工作都自动化的世界里，普通民众将对精英阶层毫无用处。生物升级将不会平等分享，人类有可能创造出一个“认知精英”阶层，他们看待其他人就像智人曾经看待尼安德特人那样，充满优越感。

尽管赫拉利给出了技术上的末世预言，但他并不是一名决定论者。他认为技术也能给我们带来美好的东西，如高效的可再生能源以及使用3D打印技术制作食物的能力。他还认为，人类应该对自身的行为负责。“如果人们担心，那么他们应该关注自己的生活和正在做的决定，包括与智能手机和电脑融为一体，以及将权力转移给计算机算法。”

即使赫拉利所预测的一切只有一半是准确的，那就说明我们的不稳定时代可能才刚刚开始。但是，像所有最好的先知一样，他正在及时发出警告，让我们改变生活方式。“变化不是千年以后才发生，”他说，“这是几十年内的事，不是千年后的事。如果我们想做一些事情，我们现在就应该开始思考。30年后就太迟了。”

1.seer [s??（r）] n. 预言家

2.at best：就最乐观的一方面看

3.cook up：策划，谋划

4.weave [wi?v] vi. 迂回曲折行进

5.the singularity：“奇点”，即人工智能会发展到某个关键的转折点，届时将完全超越人类智能。

6.middling [?m?d（?）l??] adj. 中等的

7.primate [?pra?me?t] n. 灵长目动物

8.Homo sapiens：人类；智人

9.clipped [kl?pt] adj. （语言风格）简洁明快的

10.modish [?m??d??] adj. 流行的；时髦的

11.Henry Kissinger：即亨利·阿尔弗雷德·基辛格（Henry Alfred Kissinger， 1923～），美国著名外交家、国际问题专家，美国前国务卿。