所有一切,现在就要!
2017-06-06ByOmMalik
By+Om+Malik
今年是iPhone誕生的第十个年头。自问世以来,iPhone已赢得无数忠实用户。究竟是什么原因让iPhone在短短10年里成为亿万“果粉”密不可分的生活必需品?我们习以为常的生活习惯发生了怎样的改变?iPhone与其他智能手机将走向何方?未来世界又会因智能手机发生怎样的巨变呢?
On January 9, 2007, the iPhone was announced.“Apple is making the phone do all things a computer does,” I wrote that day, adding,“While I am not suggesting that this replaces our notebooks or desktops for crucial productivity tasks, the iPhone (if it lives up to its hype1) is at least going to decrease our dependence on [them].” That, at least, turned out to be right. I am writing these words using the iPhone 7 Plus.
What I didnt see—and could hardly have imagined—was how quickly we would not only adopt smartphones but become entirely dependent on them. According to estimates from the research firm eMarketer, in 2017 there will be 2.3 billion smartphone users worldwide, accounting for about 53.1 per cent of the total number of mobile-phone users—a smartphone tipping point2, according to Cathy Boyle, a mobile analyst with eMarketer.
Over the December holidays, I tried but failed to live without my iPhone. With will power, I could tune out socialmedia apps like Twitter and Facebook, but other daily tasks, like calling a cab or ordering food, were a hassle.3 I called some of my favorite San Francisco restaurants, and they referred me to services like Postmates and Caviar;4 they had stopped delivering orders on their own. It seems that I have become accustomed to a certain behavior: tap the screen, open an app, and do something—listen to Spotify, adjust a Nest thermostat,5 check the number of steps Ive walked. Your new DJI Mavic drone needs the iPhone.6 We can barely find our way anywhere without G.P.S.-enabled maps on our phones. From our cars to our connected devices, the iPhone is a key to everything, for now and for the near future. In a recent survey of 1,003 Americans by the Boston Consulting Group, a third of the respondents said that they would rather give up sex for a year than lose access to their mobile device. At the recently concluded Consumer Electronics Show, in Las Vegas, although Amazons Alexa might have attracted the most buzz7, the importance of the iPhone and other smartphones was undeniable. Many wearables and devices within the Internet of Things,8 like a connected hairbrush or adjustable light bulbs, still need to be controlled via app.
Cornerstone technologies (such as the steam engine and the internal-combustion9 engine), when coupled with the right user experience (the passenger-carrying environment within trains, ships, cars, and planes, for example), can act like time machines.They re-factor how we conceive of distance, place, and time. They blur the near and distant, making everything faster, which then has a behavioral and societal impact. Each cornerstone technology makes the world a bit more convenient, quicker, and a bit more unsettling.
The iPhone—and all smartphones—redefined how we think about time and place. They have sped up our world. Before computers became pocket-size, we had to log on to the network on our laptops (or struggle with Treo or BlackBerry) to get to a Web site. The friction10 of that process kept certain services, from on-demand grocery delivery to online banking, from evolving in scale and effectiveness. The iPhone and its descendants11 removed the friction, and now everything is available with only a tap. Those objects have turned us into even more of an instant-gratification society.
I remember waiting for the morning newspaper. Now vital news is a tweet, flowing through the network and making its way to us almost immediately. A decade ago, it was O.K. to call and then wait 20 minutes for a cab. Today, if our Uber12 is more than two minutes late, we are irritated by the delay. Finding a partner, too, has been reduced to a swipe left or a swipe right.13 “Everything, now!” is our societys motto.
The iPhone also gave birth to a whole range of new capabilities. Prior to the iPhone, mobile phones had very few chips. The demand for gyrometers, accelerometers,14 digital cameras, touch capabilities, and other such sensors didnt really exist. After the iPhone, it is hard to find a phone that doesnt have these, as well as others. Stand-alone components have seen their prices decline rapidly, and as a result you see small robots, drones, and many other such devices making it to the market.
The race between Apple and Google (and Qualcomm15) has turned todays mobile phones into computing powerhouses, and the chips inside them have made it possible to do difficult tasks on mobile, such as editing videos and playing video games. These unintended consequences of the iPhone are what the former Wired editor-in-chief and author Chris Anderson calls the “smartphone dividend16.”
From health care to transportation, the iPhone has touched and changed nearly everything. At the launch of the iPhone, one mobile analyst quipped17 that the mobile world would be split into two phases—before iPhone and after iPhone. A decade in, we can safely say that assuming only the mobile world would be transformed was thinking too small.
2007年1月9日,第一代iPhone發布。“苹果公司正在让手机实现电脑的所有功能”,当天我写道,并补充说明,“虽然我不是想暗示iPhone会取代笔记本电脑或者台式电脑完成一些至关重要的工作,但起码iPhone(如果iPhone广告没有言过其实的话)会减弱我们对电脑的依赖。”在这一点上,至少我说对了。此刻我正用iPhone 7 Plus写下这些文字。
但我没有预计到——也很难想象到——在这样短的时间里,我们不仅接受了智能手机,而且变得完全离不开它们了。据调查公司eMarketer估计,在2017年,世界范围内的智能手机用户将达到23亿,占手机用户总数的53.1%。供职于eMarketer的手机行业分析师凯西·波义耳认为,这是智能手机的临界点。
12月假日期间,我试图过一过没有iPhone的生活,但失败了。在努力克制自己的情况下,我可以不用推特和脸书之类的社交软件,但其他诸如打车、叫外卖等日常需求则成了大问题。我给一些我在旧金山最喜爱的餐厅打电话叫外卖,他们却让我使用Postmates和Caviar订餐,因为店家自身已经不提供外送服务了。我似乎已经习惯了某种行为模式:轻轻点一下屏幕,打开某个软件,然后干些什么,比如用Spotify听听音乐,调一下Nest温控器,查查我走过的步数。你的新款大疆Mavic无人机需要iPhone。要是没有手机上的GPS导航我们几乎找不着路。从汽车到我们使用中的各种设备,iPhone是一切的钥匙,现在如此,不久的将来也一样。最近,波士顿咨询公司向1,003个美国人进行的一项调查显示,三分之一的受访者表示他们宁可一年没有性生活,也不愿忍受没有手机的生活。在最近闭幕的美国拉斯维加斯消费电子展上,亚马逊推出的Alexa语音助手可能是最受关注的,但iPhone和其他智能手机的重要性也不可否认。物联网下的许多可穿戴设备与装置,比如有联网功能的梳子或者可调控的灯泡,仍然需要通过手机软件来控制。
起到奠基作用的技术(比如蒸汽机和内燃机),一旦配上合适的用户体验(比如火车、轮船、汽车和飞机上的载客环境),就会产生时光机一般的作用。这些技术重构了我们对距离、空间与时间的理解,模糊了近与远的差别,让一切变得更加迅速,从而给人们的行为和社会产生影响。每一项奠基技术在为世界多提供一点便捷的同时也带来了一丝不安。
iPhone和其他智能手机重新定义了我们对时间和空间的理解,为我们的世界加速。在电脑变成小到可揣进口袋之前,我们必须用笔记本电脑(或是艰难地用Treo手机或黑莓手机)联网才能浏览网站。联网过程的繁琐让某些服务——从即时商品配送到网上银行——无法在规模上和效率上发展起来。iPhone系列和其他智能手机解决了这个难题,如今一切都易如反掌,只需轻轻一点。这些产品让我们朝“即时满足”型社会更进了一步。
我还记得等待晨报的经历,而如今任何重大新闻只需要通过一条推特消息,几乎瞬间就穿越网络呈现在我们眼前。10年前,叫车等上个20分钟还可以接受;如今,要是优步约车迟到了两分钟,我们就会不耐烦了。找对象现在也简化到只需要向左滑或是向右滑。“所有一切,现在就要”成了我们当下社会的口号。
iPhone也催生出一系列新的性能。iPhone问世之前,手机只有非常少的芯片,所以基本不需要陀螺仪、加速计、数码照相机、触碰功能元件和其他这种类型的传感器。但iPhone问世之后,就很难找到一台没有装置这些或者其他元件的手机了。独立元件的价格大幅下降,因此小型机器人、无人机和其他此类设备才得以走向市场。
苹果与谷歌(还有高通公司)之间的竞争让今天的手机具备强大的计算能力,而手机内置的芯片让我们可以在手机上处理复杂的任务,比如编辑视频以及玩电子游戏。这些iPhone无意间带来的结果被《连线》杂志前主编与供稿人克里斯·安德森称为“智能手机红利。”
从医疗保健到交通出行,iPhone已经几乎涉及并改变了所有领域。在iPhone发布之初,有位手機行业分析师曾打趣道,手机世界会分为两大时期:iPhone前和iPhone后。10年过去了,我们可以放心地说:认为只有手机世界会被改变未免也太不敢想了。
1. hype: 大肆的广告宣传。
2. tipping point: 临界点。
3. tune out: 关掉,不理睬;hassle:麻烦,困难。
4. Postmates: 美国同城按需快递公司,还提供送餐服务;Caviar: 一个在线订餐网站。
5. Spotify: 全球最大的正版流媒体音乐服务平台;Nest thermostat: Nest恒温器,是美国Nest Lab智能家居设备商推出的具有自我学习功能的智能温控装置,用户可用手机对其进行远程遥控。
6. DJI: 大疆,成立于2006年,是全球领先的无人机研发和生产商;drone: 无人机。
7. buzz: 骚动。
8. wearable: 可穿戴设备;Internet of Things: 物联网,指把任何物品与互联网相连接,进行信息交换和通信,以实现智能化识别、定位、跟踪、监控和管理的一种网络。
9. combustion: 燃烧。
10. friction: 摩擦力。
11. descendant: 后代,派生物。
12. Uber: 优步,是美国硅谷的一家科技公司,主打叫车app及自动驾驶汽车。
13. 此处应指的是社交软件Tinder。Tinder会根据地理位置为用户推荐附近的异性,这些推荐都是根据用户在Facebook上的共同好友、兴趣等众多因素分析而来。用户对推荐人选感兴趣则右滑,否则则左滑。两人同时感兴趣才可以开始发送消息。
14. gyrometer: 陀螺仪;accelerometer:加速计。这两个元件都可以检测到用户常见的操作设备的动作移动,加速计可以检测到线性的变化,比如晃动手机,陀螺仪则可以更好的检测到偏转的动作,手机里的很多体感游戏控制都会用到,比如运动类游戏、飙车游戏等等。
15. Qualcomm: 美国高通公司,是全球3G、4G与下一代无线技术的领军企业,并致力于引领全球5G之路,目前已经向全球100多位制造商提供技术使用授权,涉及世界上所有电信设备和消费电子设备的品牌。
16. dividend: 红利。
17. quip: 说俏皮话。