东盟成立50载，骄人成绩载青史

□ 文/ Pathom Sangwongwanich

东盟成立50载，骄人成绩载青史

□ 文/ Pathom Sangwongwanich

2017年8月将迎来东盟成立50年周年庆典。有位资深学者这样评价：素有“和平催化剂”之称的东盟，在世界大国激烈竞争中，为和平稳定提供了平台。

1967年东盟正式启动之初，人们甚至怀疑东盟至多只能维持3年。当时，政局动荡不稳，出现马来西亚、新加坡、泰国、印尼以及菲律宾5个创始成员国之间互不信任、“马印对抗”、新加坡与马来西亚联邦的分离、马来西亚与菲律宾之间的北婆罗洲争端以及越南战争等问题。

新加坡国立大学李光耀公共政策学院院长、公共政策教授马凯硕（Kishore Mahbubani）称，东盟的成功是多方面因素综合作用的结果。首先，忧患意识让东盟团结起来。其次，幸运的是，东盟国家早期有李光耀、马哈蒂尔·穆罕默德和苏哈托等杰出领导人的正确领导。再者，高尔夫球也有些许功劳，许多东盟政企领导都是在高尔夫球场上思考问题的对策、共叙发展大计。

“几乎没有东南亚人能想到可以在自家门口创造世界奇迹，取得骄人成绩。”他说：“世界上再也找不到第二个像东南亚这般多样化的地区了。作为世界上一个最为多样化的地区，东盟能够和平发展，实在令人难以相信。”

同时，马凯硕说，东盟的前景十分可观。这个由10个成员国结合而成的共同体， 现已成为世界第七大经济体，预计到2050年成为世界第四大经济体。

虽然不能确定东盟未来能否具有像今天这样的恢复弹力，但是从东盟独特的发展结构来看， 东盟是一个具有内在禀赋和智慧的组织。过去，东盟发展缓慢，步履蹒跚；如今，已实现跨越式发展，区域经济空前繁荣。

“东盟的智慧在于： 面对分歧，不是一味地消除， 而是能够包容、共存分歧。另外，东盟国家的实用主义文化深厚。”马凯硕引用东盟自由贸易区作为例子说明。

然而， 他补充道，对东盟期望不应太高，不要期待能立即创出辉煌成绩，东盟从来都不是一个完美的组织，今天的成绩已然是一个奇迹。

马来西亚第一大金融集团Maybank首席执行官约翰·庄（John Chong）称，东盟地区拥有和谐的政治社会环境，东盟各国之间的出口贸易恢复，该地区的经济增长也比较乐观。

金融集团Maybank总部设在马来西亚，期望马来西亚、新加坡、印尼、菲律宾、泰国及越南六个东盟国家，能将商品价格提升4.8%，同时提高电子产品的全球需求。

约翰·庄称，基础设施建设将成为东盟经济增长的主要推动力。未来5年内，需完成价值过百亿美元的项目。

他认为东盟各国的一体化已经进一步得到发展，区域内的直接对外投资增加足以说明这一点。

“我更愿意看到东盟国家之间贸易合作扩大。2016年，东盟国家之间的贸易占总贸易额大约24～25%，2017年仍保持着相同的水平。合作不仅局限于是各国政府，还应包括东盟各国的私营企业。” 约翰·庄说道。

“我们需要增加东盟跨国公司，也就是说， 我们不仅要在自己家里做生意，还要和其他东盟国家做生意。”

约翰·庄看到马来西亚、新加坡、泰国及菲律宾的企业已经将业务扩大到其他东盟国家，并与这些国家的企业进行合作。

他说：“我们应该鼓励各种规模的企业扩大与其他东盟国家的合作，但小公司以除外，因为小公司还需要先建立自己的市场。但是大中型企业在其他东盟国家已经发现商机, 并逐渐开设分公司，这些大中型企业在其他东盟国家都有着不同程度的发展。”

目前，贸易保护政策日益增加，出于对当前形势的担忧，东盟势必要重点关注“桥梁建设”（东盟各国之间贸易互通），加强一体化。

据约翰·庄介绍，2015年，东盟各国之间贸易占地区贸易总额大约24%，自2007年来，该数据一直维持在这个水平，相对不变。

“我们认为，通过加强东盟各国之间的贸易往来以及区域内的互联互通，东盟对地缘政治阻力的抗力能得到进一步提升。”

·毛誉晔 编译

·来源：《曼谷邮报》

·本文所持立场不代表本刊观点

As ASEAN prepares to celebrate its 50thanniversary this August, the regional organization is deemed a “catalyst for peace” as it provides a platform for stability amid the tug of war between major world powers, says a veteran academic.

“My message to both the US and China is think of your long-term interest and it is in your long-term interest to see ASEAN hold together rather than break apart,” said Kishore Mahbubani, dean and professor of public policy in the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy of the National University of Singapore.

“It is very important for the business community of the region to understand that if you want this region to continue to grow and prosper, you have to keep ASEAN together.”

At its inception in 1967, there were doubts that ASEAN could last more than three years given the challenges prevailing at the time. They included how the five founding members— Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand, Indonesia and the Philippines —distrusted each other, “Konfrontasi”between Malaysia and Indonesia, separation of Singapore from federal Malaysia, the North Borneo dispute between Malaysia and the Philippines, and the Vietnam War.

But ASEAN’s success has been a combination of factors, said Dr. Mahbubani. First, genuine fear is what holds the organization together. Second, luck played a role as there were capable regional leaders in theearly days such as Lee Kuan Yew, Mahathir Mohamad and Suharto. Even golf gets some credit, given the shared enthusiasm of so many political and corporate leaders in the region to hash out ideas on the links.

“It is shocking how few people in Southeast Asia appreciate the fact that one of the world’s greatest miracles is right here on our doorstep,” he said.

“You can go anywhere in the world —there is no corner of the world which is as diverse as Southeast Asia. To take the most diverse region on Planet Earth and make it peaceful is quite amazing. That is why ASEAN is a miracle.”

At the same time, the prospects for ASEAN’s future are amazing as the 10 members combined form the seventh largest economy in the world, which will become the fourth largest by 2050, said Dr. Mahbubani.

Although no one can tell whether ASEAN will be as resilient in the future as it is now, the organization has already developed one of its“hidden inner geniuses” through its distinctive development structure, he said. ASEAN’s development was slow “like a crab” in the past, he said, but progress suddenly leapfrogged, pushing forward regional economic prosperity like never before.

“The genius of ASEAN is that we do not try to resolve differences, [but] we live with them and we manage them on a daily basis. There is a very deep culture of pragmatism developed among the ASEAN countries,” said Dr. Mahbubani, citing the ASEAN free trade area as an example.

ASEAN will, however, always be an imperfect organization as one should not expect the bloc to do something brilliant immediately, he said. “Never seek ASEAN’s perfection. It achieved so far is a miracle.”

While there is hope for more political and social harmony, optimism for improved economic growth prevails, mainly due to the export recovery among ASEAN countries, said John Chong, CEO of Maybank Kim Eng Group.

The Malaysia-based financial services group expects the ASEAN-6 economies — Malaysia, Singapore, Indonesia, the Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam — to expand by 4.8% this commodity prices and improved global demand for electronic goods.

Infrastructure development is expected to be the main driver of economic growth for ASEAN, with tens of billions of dollars of projects to be developed over the next fve years, he said.

Mr. Chong believes integration among ASEAN economies has improved, as reflected in the increase in intraregional foreign direct investment in recent years.

“What I would like to see more is [greater] intraregional trade. It was around 24-25% (of total trade) last year and it is about the same level [this year]. It is not just about the governments, but it also has to be about the private sector and corporates as well,” he said.

“We need to step up to be ASEAN multinationals in a sense that we need to do business not just in our home countries, but also in countries within ASEAN.”

Mr. Chong has seen large corporate entities from Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand and the Philippines expanding into other regional countries and doing business with fellow ASEAN companies.

“We are seeing increasingly all levels of corporates, [but] I would not say the very small [companies] because they obviously still need to build their own markets. But definitely, the large corporates and mid-sized ones are branching out because there are obvious opportunities everywhere and, you know, in ASEAN every market has a different level of market development,” said Mr. Chong.

Amid concerns of increasing trade protionist policies, it is imperative that ASEAN continue to focus on “building bridges” and deepening integration, he continued.

In 2015, intra-ASEAN trade made up approximately 24% of the region’s total trade in goods and this number has remained relatively unchanged since 2007, said Mr. Chong.

“We strongly believe that ASEAN’s resilience to geopolitical headwinds can be further bolstered by improving intra-ASEAN trade and strengthening connectivity within the region.”

· Source: The Bangkok Post

At 50, ASEAN Urged to Take Pride in Achievements

By PATHOM SANGWONGWANICH