US-Japan Containment against China Can Only Make China Rise Faster

ZOU ZHIBO

Research Professor and Deputy-Director, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences

US-Japan Containment against China Can Only Make China Rise Faster

ZOU ZHIBO

Research Professor and Deputy-Director, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences

President Obama pointed out that the US, South Korea, and Japan would enhance cooperation in coping with nuclear threat posed by North Korea when he held talks with South Korean President Park Geun-hye and Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. The photo shows Obama (Left) in discussion with Abe (Right) during the US-South Korea-Japan trilateral talk on March 31, 2016.

Recently, the US-Japan strategic containment against China has become unprecedentedly forceful, not only instigating disputes over the South China Sea between concerned ASEAN countries and China behind the scene and getting involved in the disputes in a high profile, urging the Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA) to deliver an award to the disadvantage of China and keeping up with political, diplomatic, military and security pressures on China, but also eventually facilitating the ROK to decide for deploying the THAAD antimissile system to the detriment of geosecurity situation in Northeast Asia and seriously impairing China’s strategic security interest. In fact, as China develops rapidly, the United States and Japan have always taken encirclement of China for the axel of their China policy in order to maintain the US-led Asia-Pacific order and protect their strategic interest, continuing to build up their strategic containment against China’s development.

However, though the strategic design of the US and Japan seems to be in their strategic interest, such a containment strategy, in face of the megatrend of history, can produce corresponding counterforce, that is the US-Japan containment against China, an adversary on par with them, will conversely make the country rise faster,. Ultimately, this will produce a result running counter to their strategic conduct and strategic objective.

HISTORICAl LOGIC OF STRATEGIC CONTAINMENT AGAINST CHINA

In historical perspective, the rise of any country will necessarily impact and influence the world pattern, world order, geo-politics and regional situation. The status quo powers and forces of maintaining the existing order will necessarily constrain and contain the rising powers, some of which will directly lead to conflicts and war and some will bring about strategic antagonism and contests. The rising powers in the process of ascendance will necessarily encounter such strategic bashes and containment, which is a normal in the evolution of historical development, and is also a test that the rising powers must face and must pass. The dilemma China faces in its neighborhood now is but a reflection of the law governing historical development.

China’s rapid ascendance over the past decades and particularly the series of strategic measures it has taken in recent years, such as the Belt and Road initiative, the establishment of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank and the construction on the isles and rocks in the South China Sea, happening one after another, have posed a challenge to the US leadership in the Asian-Pacific economic and security order and to Japan’s position as the primary economic power of Asia, seriously threatening the US hegemony in the Asia-Pacific and Japan’s role as a regional power. It is necessary for the US and Japan to intercept and contain China in strategic terms and even to get into direct struggle with China over the rights to write rules. At present, the illegal award of the PCA on the South China Sea and the ROK’s decision for deploying the “THAAD”anti-missile system are nothing but strategic reflections of US-Japan efforts in containment against China. The US has speared no efforts to put in place the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement, excluding China. Obama vowed that China must not be allowed to write the rules for global trade and the US must write those rules, which were a heart-felt wish of his and also a true reflection of the US struggle against China over the regional and international order.

COUNTERFORCE OF STRATEGIC CONTAINMENT AGAINST CHINA

The US and Japan have carried out strategic containment against China and gradually stepped up their efforts in so doing, which cannot contain the momentum of China’s development, nay, but will produce exactly opposite results, namely quickening the ascendance of China. Such a strategic logic and its results are determined by two factors as follows. One of them is the“hardware” factor, pertaining to the fact that China is a strategic player on par with the US and Japan, possessing not only the strength of a major country but also the all-factor qualification to go for political, economic, military and science and technological self development, which is not possessed by all the major countries of the day. It is the Achilles heel for the countries to be in lack of such all-factor qualification, placing them at the disposal of others. The other is the “software” factor, pertaining to the national personality of the Chinese people and the social system with Chinese characteristics. With a history of continued civilization for thousands of years, it is in the tradition and the genes of the Chinese people to rise to the occasion and turn crisis into opportunity. The country is under firm leadership of the CPC and the nation possesses strong centripetal force. Although the US and Japan being engaged in strategic containment against China and increasing their efforts in so doing will put considerable pressure on China in terms of overall development of the country, safeguarding its sovereign rights and interests and realizing military modernization, this will at the same time also provide the country with great driving force and significant opportunities.

1.Making China Rise Faster

The development of objects is dialectical, force producing counterforce and crisis breeding opportunity. Since the 18th CPC National Congress, the CPC Central Committee with Xi Jinping as its General Secretary has put forward the “Chinese Dream” for the great renewal of the Chinese nation, starting a new historical march of the Chinese people. The increasing strategic containment against China by the US and Japan can only give China, entertaining great ambition and objectives, a sense of urgency and mission and great drive, making the Chinese Government work out and implement policies and measures to quicken the process of ascendance of the country, enhancing China’s national force of cohesion and mobilization and uniting all the people of China in exerting concerted efforts to achieve their goal.At the same time, under great external pressure, it will be easier for the country to reach consensus on existing political, economic and social issues within the country and to resolve them more effectively and faster.

So far, the US-Japan containment against China has not produced strategic results, and it will take a world war or a war waged in China’s neighborhood with direct participation of the US and Japan to truly intercept or reverse the ascendance of the country, a containment measure at an extremely high price, too dear to pay for the US and Japan.

Based on rational judgment of national interest, US policy makers will most likely to opt for interfering, obstructing and delaying the process of China’s ascendance by political, military, diplomatic, economic and cultural means. To this end, the US will conduct a strategic contest with China in the latter’s neighborhood, its implementation and results to be determined by the structure and form of China-US strategic contest on issues in China’s neighborhood. In fact, there are three“asymmetries” in such a China-US strategic contest, namely “interest asymmetry”, “strategic-will asymmetry” and“geographical position asymmetry”.“Interest asymmetry” is referred to the fact that such neighborhood issues as Taiwan, the South and the East China Seas issues are at the stake of China’s core national interest whereas they only involve important interest of the US. Such asymmetry in interest has important bearings on pertinent national strategic decision, mobilization of resources and mode of conduct.“Strategic-will asymmetry” is referred to differences between China and the US in the bottom-line of the strategic contest on China’s neighborhood issues and in determination of strategic show-down at a crucial moment, having decisive bearings on results of the contest. “Geographical position asymmetry” means that all those issues happen in China’s neighborhood rather than near the US homeland, which has great bearings on strategic transfer, consumption, sustainability and persistence of the strategic contest. The three asymmetries determine that although there is a considerable gap between China’s comprehensive national strength and that of the US, China has sizable strategic advantage over the US on contest in its own neighborhood.

2. Urging China to Be More Aggressive in Safeguarding Its Sovereignty, Rights and Interests

The external conduct of a country is not only driven by its national interest but also trained by its philosophical thinking and traditional culture. By nature, China’s strategic culture is introversive and defensive. In fact, China has all along been a passive victim of territorial disputes with its neighbors, its sovereignty, rights and interests having been continuously violated and encroached upon. But it is precisely this point that gives China the opportunity to restore its inherent sovereignty, rights and interest, particularly as China’s strength and national selfconfidence are on the increase. China will seize the opportunity to take more active and aggressive policy measures to safeguard its sovereignty, rights and interest. The disputes on sovereignty happening now over the islands of the East China Sea and the South China Sea and their results are best examples of this logic.

In September 2012, the Japanese Government made rash advances on the sovereignty issue over the Diaoyu Islands, implementing a plan of socalled “nationalization by purchasing the islands”, which severely violated China’s sovereignty but also presented an opportunity for China to counterattack and strengthen its exercise of sovereignty over the Diaoyu Islands. The Chinese Government resolutely sent warships and warplanes of its navy and air-force on patrol of the water and air space of the islands and demonstrated its sovereignty therein, which ultimately realized normal patrol of the Diaoyu Island and its attached islands and waters, significantly strengthening China’s maintenance of sovereignty over the islands. Furthermore, in face of US-Japan challenges and threats on the issue of Diaoyu Islands, China announced the East China Sea Air Defense Identification Zone, increasing its capacity of strategic early warning and military response in the East China Sea. By then, Japan’s provocation on the issue of Diaoyu Islands had led to the result of reduced Japanese power of administration and strengthened China’s sovereignty over the Diaoyu Islands, ending in Japan “going for wool and coming back shorn”.

Similarly, upon the PCA delivering the illegal award on the South China Sea, the Chinese Government immediately issued a statement, which for the first time comprehensively, thoroughly and clearly announced China’s sovereignty, rights and interests in the South China Sea, drawing a clear-cut red line not to be crossed for the US and Japan behind the scene and for the Philippines and Vietnam up front. At the same time, China has taken a series of major measures in safeguarding its sovereignty, rights and interest in the South China Sea, conducting a large-scale military exercise jointly participated by all of the three fleets of its navy in the waters of the South China Sea whereas its air-force sending long-range bombers on patrol over the Huangyan and other islands and their adjacent air space, which shows China’s mighty capabilities in safeguarding its sovereignty, rights and interest in the South China Sea and its determination to be active and aggressive in so doing. It is worth noting that this time around, instigated by the US and Japan, the Philippines taking the lead in submitting the South China Sea to international arbitration ultimately only has served China to take a major step forward in safeguarding its sovereignty, rights and interest in the South China Sea.

3. Urging China to Accelerate Military Modernization

The military exists for fighting and goes to war for national survival and security. Without external threats and enemy, the military building would be aimless and lacking dynamics. It is precisely the US as its mighty adversary, the strategic threat for its securityand development from the US and Japan and the encroachments upon its territorial sovereignty in the neighborhood that give a sense of urgency and dynamics to the development and construction of the Chinese military and China’s modernization in national defense, providing clear targets and direction for China to accelerate the process of its military modernization.

Guided by the thinking of Chairman Xi Jinping of the Central Military Commission that the military should be able to fight and win wars, the Chinese military has, since the end of 2015, conducted the most important transformation in institutions and mechanisms since its founding, replacing the establishment of military regional commands with five commands of Eastern, Western, Southern, Northern and Central battle zones, newly establishing the ground force, the rocket force and the strategic support force and turning the People’s Liberation Army into a modern military for joint operation of five service branches of the ground force, the navy, the air-force, the rocket force and the strategic support force with a five-area operation system for ground, naval, air, space and cyber warfare. Guided by“winning wars”, the Chinese military has realized a leap-forward development in weaponry and equipment. It is reported that the Chinese Navy will not be limited to Ship Liaoning the first aircraft carrier in its possession but will have several aircraft carrier groups and a number of new-type warships, moving from “light blue” waters to “deep blue” waters. As new equipment like a new generation of warplanes, longrange bombers and tanker aircraft take service, the airspace under operational control of the Chinese air-force has extended significantly, and an operational mode of “air and space integration with combined offensive and defensive capabilities” is in the making. The rocket force possesses new-type and quite a number of medium-and-short-range missiles, forming a flexible and multimode strike system that combines nuclear and conventional capabilities with payloads matching one another and a sequence of ranges linking one another. With the successful implementation of its space program including spaceship, moon lander and the Beidou Navigation Satellite System, and successes of anti-satellite and mid-course missile interception tests, China also possesses world-class space operational capabilities.

STRATEGIC OPTIONS FOR THE US AND JAPAN TO DEAl WITH CHINA’S RISE

Judging by the logic and inertia of historical development, it is in line with the strategic culture of the US and Japan for them, in consideration of maintaining the US led international and regional order and protect their interest, to carry out containment against the rise of China, which seems to be in their national strategic interest. However, in view of China’s national strength and quintessence, such a containment strategy will not be successful, nay, it will accelerate China’s rise, a result to the opposite of their strategy. Then, in order to protect their strategic interest to the maximum, what should be their strategy? For this, there are two strategic options for the US and Japan, one being to continue to implement the above mentioned containment strategy against China and to step it up gradually, and the other, to change the mindset and readjust their thinking and to take a cooperation strategy with China. As for how to treat China’s ascendance and how to look at its effects on the world, one should have two big pictures in view. One big picture is that the development and rise of China is unstoppable, that is to say that in the not so distant future, China as a world power will become a fact of life and the country will have an important say on the international and regional order, rules and affairs, which perhaps is known very well even to the US and Japan. The other big picture is that China has all along pursued a “kingly way” rather than hegemony, which is fundamentally different from the traditional Western culture, believing that it is necessary for a strong country to seek hegemony. In view of the two big pictures, by taking either of the two different strategic options, the US and Japan will pay different strategic costs and harvest different strategic gains.

In long-term and overall perspective, the US-Japan containment strategy will be unable to stop China’s ascendance, nay, it will produce a strategic outcome detrimental to their interest. A rising China in strategic antagonism with the US and Japan will experience more of the narrow-mindedness and defects of the US and Japan led international and regional order. It will not yield to the order and system established and controlled by the US and Japan, but rather will necessarily come up with strategic resistance and counter measures against the US and Japan and will seek to remarkably readjust and even to change the international and regional order and system through increasing national strength, which for the US and Japan is absolutely no good news.

Conversely, if the US and Japan change the mindset and readjust their thinking so as to adopt a cooperative strategy to China, integrating the country into the existing international and regional order of their own making and under their leadership, having an attitude of equality and respect toward China, and readjusting and improving unreasonable aspects of the order and system to move along with the time, then they will join hands with China in establishing a more equitable and reasonable international and regional order and system accepted by more of the countries, and in so doing their strategic interest will be kept to the maximum, and so also are their positions in the world. In fact, both China’s historical tradition and practical interest decide that China will not, of its own accord, challenge the existing international order. Neither will it take the beaten track of Western countries for a strong country to necessarily seek hegemony and chase interest by force. Rather, China will take a road of ascendance through development that is to be inclusive with other countries and cultures, to be integrated into the existing international order and to live in harmony with the rest of the world.