Development Trend of“16+1 Cooperation”after the Suzhou Summit: A Response from Central andEastern European Think Tanks

LIU ZUokUI

Research Fellow，Institute of European Studies，Chinese Academy of Social Sciences and Director of its Central and East Europe Research Center

Development Trend of“16+1 Cooperation”after the Suzhou Summit: A Response from Central andEastern European Think Tanks

LIU ZUokUI

Research Fellow，Institute of European Studies，Chinese Academy of Social Sciences and Director of its Central and East Europe Research Center

Between November 24 and 25， 2015， the 4th Summit of China-Central-East Europe Leaders' Meeting was held in Suzhou， Jiangsu Province， which issued the Suzhou Guidelines for Cooperation between China and Central and Eastern European Countries and the Medium-Term Agenda for Cooperation between China and Central and Eastern European Countries framing the development objectives of both sides and priority cooperation areas between them. On December 16， 2015， over 200 officials and think tanks scholar-experts from China and 16 Central-East Europe countries held in Diaoyutai State Guest House， Beijing the 3rd China-Central-East Europe High-Level Think Tanks Workshop， an exclusiveworkshop to make contributions to the “16+1 cooperation”. Combined with the author's research on Central-East European countries， this essay is to explore the response from Central-East European countries to “16+1 cooperation” after the Suzhou Summit and to make a few pertinent policy recommendations.

CEnTRAL AnD EAsTERn EURoPEAn THInk TAnk's REsPonsE To“16+1 CooPERATIon” AFTER THE SUZHoU SUMMIT

1. The “16+1 cooperation” has greatly enhanced mutual perception and understanding between China and Central and Eastern European countries.

The Central and Eastern European countries as a whole have expressed positive and affirmative attitudes to the “16+1 cooperation” in enhancing mutual perception and understanding between China and Central and Eastern European countries. Ambassador Vladimir Petkovski， the first Maltese Ambassador to China， remarks that in the past four years， the 16 Central and Eastern European countries have become a group of countries that attracts a lot of international attention because of China's framework of “16+1 cooperation”. Within the framework， it is believed that future cooperation will surely be sustainable and will enjoy forceful support from the 16 countries. Such a new example of practical cooperation has become a very eyeball catching mechanism in global and regional cooperation. Professor Patryk Kugiel， Senior Fellow at Poland's Institute of International Studies and an expert in Asian affairs observes that the Central and Eastern European countries are undergoing a change in their perception of China. From 1900s to around 2000， they all saw China through colored glasses of human rights and Tibet issues. However，thanks to the framework of “16+1 cooperation”， their perception of China gets closer to the fact. They welcome China to participate in Central and Eastern European affairs. Countries including Poland and the Czech Republic have experienced a major change in perception of China.

Ambassador Ksawery Burski， formerly Polish Ambassador to China and a sinologist remarks that promoted by the “16+1 cooperation”， China-Poland political relations is at its best since Poland's transformation. Jan Kohout， former Foreign Minister of the Czech Republic emphasizes that the “16+1 cooperation” is a unique platform for cooperation between the two sides and conducive to mutual benefit cooperation and that the Belt and Road Initiative and the “16+1 cooperation” are complementary to each other and help enhance mutual understanding and common development.

2. The “16+1 cooperation” and the 16 pairs of bilateral relationships are mutually complementary and it is necessary for both to rely on one another.

From the perspective of the Chinese Government， the “16+1 cooperation”and the 16 pairs of bilateral relationships are not deemed as purely an addition. As Assistant Foreign Minister of China Liu Haixing remarks，China is ready to further an organic synthesis between the “16+1 cooperation” and 16 pairs of its relations with the 16 countries in order to achieve the effects of 16 plus one being greater than 17. It is worth noting that China is mindful of the differentiation of its policy relations with the 16 countries and also sets great store by wholeness of developing relations with the 16 countries. China wishes to organically synthesize them both. From the establishment of the Secretariat of China-Central-East Europe Cooperation to the annual leaders' meetings between the two sides and to fora for economic and trade cooperation， all are of the same consideration. In the establishment of mechanisms of all kinds（such as infrastructural construction，agriculture， investment and tourism），there have been considerations of integrating Central and Eastern European resources of various sectors in order to enhance the “16+1 cooperation”.

Judging by concrete conditions，there is fairly large room for cooperation at deep level based on the “16+1 cooperation” and the 16 pairs of bilateral relationships. The region has always been a domain of Europe-Russia rivalry， where the eastward expansion of the EU and the NATO has already kindledcontest between Europe and Russia. Comparing with Europe and Russia， China occupies a relatively detached position there and the development of its cooperationwith the 16 countries mainly led by economic，trade and investment will not be met with strategic， substantial obstruction of the EU. As Slobodan Soja， a historian of Bosnia and Herzegovina，observes， the 16 countries in the Central and Eastern European region are a much diversified group， there being issues even within its internal bilateral relations. Thanks to China's project arrangements， some permanent channels of communication have been in place among the 16 countries，inner connections getting closer. At the same time， the overall relations between China and the 16 countries are expected to surge forwardwith the help of “comparing” and “running after” effects.

3. Though important in geographical location， Central-East Europe is not the only access to Europe and the Central and Eastern European countries should have the awareness of “running after” major EU countries.

All of the 16 countries have been put within the framework of Belt and Road cooperation， their geographical location being immensely important. Having long been a hub area in the Eurasian continent， it plays a very significant role in the European layout of the Belt and Road. However， in the eye of some of the Central and Eastern European countries， it is far from enough for them to rely on location advantage alone in developing relations with China in the future.

As Ksawery Burski， former Polish Ambassador to China observes， there are some people in Poland who believe that the country can be a main entrance for China to get into Europe，but this assessment is less than accurate， as China holds influence on many European countries and has many assesses and waysinto Europe. Though Poland can take the advantage of its geographical location， but it is only one of entrances for China to get into Europe. Judging by the rapid development of China-UK， China-France and China-Germany relations，China's influence has already reached all over Europe. This is a fact we must recognize when talking about the framework of “16+1 cooperation” and all cooperative projects wherein. Some of the media allege that Germany is worried by the “16+1 cooperation” as China attempts to get into the European market via the side entrance of Central-East Europe. On this， I wouldlike to say that China has already got into Europe， that it no longer needs to gain some side entrance or some main entrance into Europe， and that such arguments are meaningless. It remains an arduous task for China and the Central and Eastern European countries to achieve cooperation on a more profound level， and in this regard， we still lag behind major EU countries in cooperation with China as cooperation between China and major EU countries like the UK， France and Germany is on a very profound level，ways and meansof cooperation being much more than us. It will take a lot of efforts for us to catch up with them.

4. Actively support the interface between EU and respective national strategies and the Belt and Road Initiative.

A survey of four dimensions of European understanding of the Belt and Road Initiative （that is， that by East Europe， West Europe， North Europe and South Europe） reveals that the Central and Eastern European countries are fairly advanced and， to a certain degree， better understand the mode of layout for the Belt and Road Initiative. They try to interface the EU and their respective national strategies with the Belt and Road Initiative.

The EU's Danube Strategy attracts much attention from countries like Romania， Serbia， Slovakia， being a connectivity strategy with sizable EU spending. Those countries along the Danube actively support and push for the interface between the Danube Strategy and the Belt and Road Initiative. Well-known think tanks of the Central and Eastern European countries， including those of Romania and Serbia， have expressed to the Chinese side through various channels that they would like to conduct co-feasibility studies with Chinese think tanks in actively promoting the effective interface between the two major connectivity strategies of China and Europe and advancing people-to-people exchanges. As Geanina Puscasu， Executive-Chairperson of Romanian Black Sea Projects Association， observes， I believe that there are better opportunities for cooperation between the Danube Strategy and the Belt and Road Initiative and that the future will bring about more opportunities to all the 17 countries of ours.

5. Upgrade the openness of the“16+1 cooperation” and actively encourage the participation of stakeholders in Central-East Europe.

There are a number of stakeholders that are active in Central-East Europe such as the EU， Russia， the US and Germany. To a certain degree， the EU affects the space for development of the “16+1 cooperation” in institutions and rules whereas the US affects the direction of development of most of the Central and Eastern European countries in political and security terms. From the perspective of the layout of the Belt and Road in Central-East Europe， Russia cannot be neglected， and the Russia-led Eurasian Economic Union will partially affect the process， model and prospect of building the Belt and Road across the Eurasian continent. The presence of German interest is extensive in Central-East Europe， which by tradition is its“sphere of influence”. Germany has a considerable say there and to a certainextent affects the EU attitude towards Central-East Europe. Besides， through the influence of Austria， Greece， Italy and Nordic countries is not as significant as the above， they cannot be overlooked. As in the Central-East Europe，there are numerous active interest and stakeholders， some of the think tanks suggest that the “16+1 cooperation” be kept open and attract more interest and stakeholders to participate.

As KsaweryBurski， former Polish Ambassador to China observed， we need China to stand up and explain why the “16+1 cooperation” will not be a matter of concerns in EU-China relations and， of course， we will also come in to help. We should welcome countries beyond the 16 like Austria to take an active part in the cooperation，to understand the development of relations between China and Central and Eastern European countries and to seek opportunity for cooperation.

REcoMMEnDATIons FoR THE“16+1 CooPERATIon”

1. It is necessary to base the“16+1” platform on guiding the development of the 16 pairs of bilateral relationships to bring about two “running after” effects.

One is to bringabout “running after”effects within the 16 countries on their relations with China. The other is to bring about “running after” effects between the Central and Eastern European countries and major EU countries such as the UK， France and Germany on their relations with China within the framework of China-EU relations. Heterogeneity among the 16 countries will not necessarily become an obstacle to further developing the “16+1 cooperation”， cooperation between China and the other BRICS countries being a case in point. Heterogeneity among the five of the BRICS countries is far greater than that among the 16 countries， but on the basis of mutual respect for national interest， the five countries are trying to overcome difficulties from heterogeneity and have achieved many results in cooperation.

To a certain extent， heterogeneity among the 16 countries creates space and opportunity for developing the framework of the “16+1 cooperation”，as the effects of integration and aggregation in the region are unprecedentedly powerful， a point to be neglected by neither the EU nor China. Most of the 16 countries are small countries，most lacking the capacity to provide sizable public goods. Through providing a platform or public goods， China has come in to help create opportunity for the developmentof 16 countries，which can learn from each other， cooperate with each other and compare with each other in tapping the gigantic potential of the Chinese market，ultimately resulting in a multiple win situation.

Within the framework of China-EU cooperation， comparing to the 16 countries， development of China-UK，China-France and China-Germany relations are markedly more comprehensive and on a deeper level， the development model and routes providing driving force and reference for the“16+1 cooperation”. In the future， major EU countries like the UK， France and Germany can help advance the “16+1 cooperation” as important participants，resolve misgivings within the EU and bring about the running after effects among the EU countries as a whole，especially the running after effects on the 16 countries in relation to China relations of the UK， France and Germany.

2. Enhancing the strength in advancing strategic interface between the two sides and enlarging the cake of cooperation.

In accordance with the Medium-Term Agenda for Cooperation between China and Central and Eastern European Countries， both sides are actively creating conditions in advancing the projects of Hungary-Serbia Railway and China-Europe land-Sea Express Line and actively advancing the three-sea harbor district cooperationconcerning the Adriatic Sea， the Black Sea and the Baltic Sea. The cooperation in Hungary-Serbia Railway， China-Europe land-Sea Express Line and three-sea harbor district cooperation is linked in a chain， in which a good job at the construction of Hungary-Serbia Railway will make a good start for that of China-Europe land-Sea Express Line， and a good job at the construction of China-Europe land-Sea Express Line will promote the three-sea harbor district cooperation. The implementation of such important flag-ship projects will help a more profound and from-direct-perceptionunderstanding of the Belt and Road Initiative on the part of the Central and Eastern European countries and the EU countries at large. China can also actively explore the interface of major projects， especially those attract general attention of the Central and Eastern European countries， such as the interface with the Danube Strategy as an important channel for deepening China-EU strategic partnership.

3. Attaching importance to stakeholders and handling relations with them appropriately.

Since most of the Central and Eastern European countries have adopted the development model of open and export-oriented economy，which means that it is necessary for them to have relations with a number of players that gives rise to a series of important stakeholders. The “16+1 cooperation” should take an open and inclusive attitude towards the stakeholders and actively enhance cooperation with them. At the Suzhou Summit， Austria， Greece and the European Bank of Reconstruction and Development were there as invitees and the EU continued to attend as an observer，such openness having won extensive praises. To promote cooperation with interest and stake holders， it is imperative to create necessary channels for cooperation， both to avoid diluting the wholeness of the “16+1 cooperation”and to increase the space and channels for cooperation. For instance， it is advisable to advance third party cooperation within the framework of the “16+1 cooperation” so much so that many of the interest and stake holders can be included for multi-party cooperation.