A Failed Coup

By+Zhang+Bo

A military coup was staged by a faction within the Turkish armed forces in the nations capital， Ankara， and its largest city， Istanbul on the night of July 15. Shots were heard in Parliament， the Presidential Palace and major airports， while at least 290 people have died and more than 1，000 were injured.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan delivered a speech on social media， calling on the people to protest against the coup， and within a day the attempted takeover had failed.

Domestic turmoil

Multiple factors underpin the coup： the relationship between Erdogan and the military has been deteriorating； the ruling Justice and Development Party （AKP）， an Islamic party led by Erdogan， is criticized by secularists for the increasing role of religion in politics； and the Turkish military， which considers itself to be the guardian of secular democracy and constitutional order， believes it is now necessary to intervene.

To compound matters， stability in Turkey is faltering， with terrorist attacks increasing in frequency. Regional Kurdish issues remain a source of tension too， while Erdogans intention to change Turkeys parliamentary system to a presidential one faces opposition domestically.

Despite these factors， the attempted coup was still defeated within a day， underscoring， to some degree， the level of power of， and public support for， the AKP. Besides， the coup was not unanimously backed by the military， with the attempted takeover being staged by a small number of army officials rather than by its mainstream. In recent years， Erdogan has become astute at dealing with the military and has successfully wiped out many high-level personnel who opposed him.

The Turkish public has become less accepting of military intervention in politics. As the domestic economy develops， Turks have become more favorable toward civilian politics. Aside from many citizens， opposition parties and the global community have also tended to reject the coup. Countries such as Russia， Pakistan and Greece， along with international organizations such as NATO and the EU， have expressed concern over the incident. There is widespread condemnation of the coup and support for the president， who has been actively reaching out to Turkeys former adversaries in the Eurasia region.

Erdogans international reach

In May， Binali Y？ld？r？m took office as the new Turkish Prime Minister （PM） and head of the AKP， vowing to cooperate more closely with the president.

After gaining more support， the new Turkish Government is reevaluating its foreign policy， starting with the objective of building fruitful relationships with Russia and Israel so as to be less isolated on the international stage.

Many European countries are highly critical of Erdogans dictatorial presidency， while the EU-Turkey deal on refugees remains precarious despite being struck several months ago. The country is also trying to thaw its frosty relationship with the Kremlin since gunning down a Russian jet on the SyrianTurkish border last November.

On June 27， Erdogan wrote an apology to Russian President Vladimir Putin for the Russian pilots death in the jet incident. In the letter， Erdogan called Russia “a strategic partner” of Turkey and expressed his desire to resume the bilateral relationship and cooperate on regional crises and anti-terrorist endeavors. Putin asserted that Russia would resume a mutually beneficial trade relationship with Turkey and lift its sanctions on the Turkish tourist industry following the first phone conference with Erdogan since the downing of the Russian warplane.

On July 1， Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov met his Turkish counterpart， Mevlut Cavusoglu， as the two states moved quickly to normalize relations. Both sides agreed to restart an anti-terrorism group and strengthen military cooperation. Erdogans timely apology had much to do with the necessity to pursue a more fruitful relationship with Russia， since its sanctions on many key Turkish industries had crippled the alreadysluggish economy.

The reason for Erdogans change of heart can be found in the deteriorating external relations faced by the country. Turkey is at odds with the United States， which has repeatedly asked the nation to stop shelling American-backed Kurdish （the largest ethnic minority in Turkey， many of whom desire separation） fighters in northern Syria. It is also on bad terms with Germany， which in June recognized the 1915 massacre of Armenians by then-Ottoman Turkey as“genocide.” Turkeys chances of joining the EU appear extremely slim for a number of reasons， including its cold relationship with Germany.

The nation is in effect at war with Syria. In many ways， this is the worst-case scenario for Turkey right now： Bashar al-Assads re- gime， with the support of Russia， continues to rule Syria， which Turkey openly opposes. The Kurds， backed by the United States， have consolidated their domination on the Turkey-Syria border.

The beleaguered state is in dire need of allies. Aside from repairing relations with Russia， it is also keen to defuse six years of tension with Israel that grew in the wake of Israeli attacks on the Freedom Flotilla， a group of civilian ships attempting to provide supplies to break the Gaza Strips Israeli blockade， in international waters in the Mediterranean Sea on May 31， 2010. According to the normalization deal signed on June 28， Israel will provide $20 million worth of compensation to the families of victims in the flotilla raid， while Turkey will not seek legal measures against the Israeli commandos involved.

Energy is perceived to be a key reason for reconciliation between Turkey and Israel. Since November 2015， Russia has cut much of its energy supply to Turkey， leaving the nation facing a great power shortage. However， this can be negated by Israel transporting energy though the Mediterranean Sea. For natural gas， Israel is seeking potential buyers， while Erdogan is trying to resolve the shortage caused by the standoff with Russia. The Syrian crisis is also an area where Turkey seeks to forge closer ties with Israel， as the two countries can start to share information on the troubled area， which gives substantial weight to their bilateral relations.

Erdogan has sought greater powers for the presidential post in recent years. After the failure of the recent coup， the Turkish militarys influence on the domestic political agenda may eventually come to an end. Erdogans regime will also hope to garner more support for transforming the cabinet system into a presidential system， revising the constitution and further restricting military power.

Simultaneously， the Turkish leader， with the help of Y？ld？r？m， should continue to improve Turkeys relations with strategic partners， particularly in the region， to create a stable and sound environment for the countrys domestic development.