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辽宁洪涝灾情统计分析

2016-08-15王永宁辽宁省防汛抗旱指挥部办公室辽宁沈阳110003

东北水利水电 2016年2期
关键词:统计辽宁

王永宁(辽宁省防汛抗旱指挥部办公室,辽宁 沈阳 110003)



辽宁洪涝灾情统计分析

王永宁
(辽宁省防汛抗旱指挥部办公室,辽宁 沈阳 110003)

[摘 要]根据近年来辽宁省区域内洪涝灾害频繁发生的实际情况,有针对性地指出了辽宁省当前洪涝灾情统计工作中存在的重点问题;同时,结合辽宁省防汛工作的主要特点,提出了进一步做好洪涝灾情统计工作的几点措施和建议。

[关键词]洪涝灾情;统计;辽宁

洪涝灾情统计是一项专业性、科学性、连续性、时效性较强的工作,是防汛应急管理、指挥决策、灾后恢复重建等的重要基础性工作,是研究制定洪涝灾害应对措施、统计分析洪涝灾害发生规律和社会经济建设中开展防灾减灾工作不可或缺的基础性资料,是各级防汛指挥者准确、及时了解掌握灾情信息,实行科学指挥决策、指导抢险救灾的重要依据。洪涝灾害信息的及时准确与否,直接关系到各级防汛抢险工作的有效实施,关系到各级防灾减灾指挥机构的高效运作和正确指挥,甚至关系到整个防汛工作的成败。

1 洪涝灾情统计的作用

辽宁省位于中国东北地区的南部,是中国东北经济区和环渤海经济区的重要结合部,是东北地区通往关内的交通要道,也是东北地区和内蒙古通向世界、连接欧亚大陆桥的重要门户和前沿地带。辽宁省属于温带大陆性季风气候区,中部为平原地区,东西部为山地丘陵地区。陆地面积14.59万km2(山地面积8.72万km2,平地面积4.87 万km2,水域面积1万km2),海域面积15.02万km2(渤海部分7.83万km2,北黄海7.19万km2)。海岸线东起鸭绿江口,西至山海关老龙头,大陆海岸线全长2178 km,占中国大陆海岸线总长的12%。

洪涝灾害是威胁人民生命财产安全的主要自然灾害之一。独特的自然地理条件和不断变化的气候环境,决定了辽宁省是一个洪涝灾害频繁发生的省份;其中,东部地区和西部地区极易发生山洪泥石流灾害,中部地区极易发生内涝事件,沿海地区容易受台风影响发生洪涝灾害。近年来,随着全球气候变暖和环境变化,辽宁省极端性天气事件频次加剧,洪涝灾害呈现了多发、突发的态势。据统计,2010年以来辽宁省区域内共发生各类洪涝灾害24次,其中2010年的6次强降雨、2012年的“8.04”洪水、2013年的“8.16”洪水等洪涝灾害,均给辽宁省部分地区造成了不同程度的经济损失。灾害发生后,在充分利用已经建成的洪涝灾情统计报送系统平台的基础上,通过各级洪涝灾害统计人员的积极努力,对每一次洪涝灾害造成的险情、灾情进行了及时统计,对人口受灾、房屋倒塌、农作物损失、基础设施损毁等重要灾情信息进行了充分分析核实并开展了逐级报送工作,在第一时间为各级防汛抢险和指挥决策提供了第一手资料,也为及时降低受灾地区洪涝灾害损失提供了基础信息,为区域经济社会持续发展奠定了坚实基础。

2 存在的问题

多年来,辽宁省洪涝灾情统计工作取得了一定的成绩,圆满完成了2010年6次强降雨过程、2012年的“8.04”大洪水、2013年的“8.16”大洪水等重大洪涝灾情统计报送工作,积累了许多经验。但是,也存在一些不容忽视的突出问题,主要表现在:

一是基层报灾时效性差。近年来新闻媒体对防汛工作宣传力度加大,信息传播节奏加快,给防汛信息报送带来新的压力。报灾不及时是当前洪涝灾情报送工作中存在的主要问题,一些地区对突发洪涝灾情不敏感,应急反应能力不强,信息报送不及时,造成灾情信息上报迟滞。

二是灾情数据存在出入。洪涝灾情统计表包含项目多,既包括水利设施的损失,还包括受灾范围、人口、倒塌房屋及农林牧渔业、工业、交通运输业等损失。灾情统计数据涉及部门多,且灾害发生后,各部门关注的重点不同,造成不同部门掌握的同一类别数据常存在一些差异。

三是虚报瞒报时有发生。统计数据是洪涝灾害的客观记录,一些地区对洪涝灾情统计的严肃性缺乏正确认识,洪涝灾情统计中虚报瞒报的情况时有发生,出现“小灾报大,大灾报小”的情况。

四是基层统计力量薄弱。个别市县缺乏专职灾情统计人员,除灾情统计工作外,统计人员仍兼顾其他工作;另外,洪涝灾情统计专业性较强,个别统计人员对洪涝灾情统计制度掌握不够透彻,对洪涝灾情的统计范围、统计内容、报送制度、工作方式理解不深,在灾情统计质量等方面还存在不足。

3 措施和建议

针对当前辽宁洪涝灾害统计存在的突出问题,结合辽宁防汛工作的实际情况,提出做好辽宁洪涝灾害统计工作的几点措施和建议如下:

一是严格落实灾情统计报表制度。各级防汛指挥机构应认真贯彻洪涝灾情统计制度,切实坚持做好“四报”,①实时报,及时在灾情发生后第一时间上报灾情报表;②过程报,及时在每次灾情过程结束后上报经过核实的灾情报表;③月报,及时上报当月发生灾害过程的累计报表;④年报,及时上报全年发生灾害过程的累计报表。

二是及时准确报送重大险情灾情信息。各级防汛指挥机构应认真执行国家防总防汛突发险情灾情报告管理相关规定,对水库、江河堤防垮坝、决口或失事、重大山洪泥石流,或者出现垮坝决口前兆的危险状况、重大人员伤亡等重大险情信息,要在迅速报告本级党委、政府的同时,必须在第一时间把简要情况上报上级防汛指挥机构,同时继续收集整理补充新情况,及时做好续报工作。

三是严肃灾情信息报送纪律。各级防汛指挥机构应强化信息报送,上报信息要及时准确,既不能谎报,也不能瞒报;应严肃报送纪律,各级政府主管领导必须对报送的信息严格把关,各级防指、防办领导对报送的信息要确认签字,尤其是人员伤亡的信息,必须校准核实;更不能发生私自发布信息、小题大做、无事生非等现象。

四是强化灾情调查核实工作。对于重大灾情,应组织人员深入灾区实际调查,全面搜集有关情况,核实灾情统计数据,分析灾情成因,做好减灾评价工作。同时,涉及非水利的灾害损失,要加强与民政、国土、农业、交通等有关部门的沟通联系,建立统计信息互报机制,避免发生信息渠道不一、数据矛盾的情况发生,保证灾情统计数据的准确性和权威性。

这种潜移默化的规范和引导,营造了良好的励志教育的校园环境。思政工作者要善于抓住学生课余、自习时间,对学生可能存在的理想信念模糊、价值取向扭曲、艰苦奋斗精神弱化、社会责任感缺乏的现象进行分析与解决,为励志教育增添光彩。通过对典型人物或先进事迹的宣传,增强学生的竞争意识,带动学生“学比赶帮超”的热情,通过榜样的力量促使学生的道德观、价值观、人生观得到提升。励志成才,燃起学生心中希望之火;树立榜样,让学生朝着目标果敢前行。

五是建设完善灾情分析评价体系。各级防汛指挥机构应提高洪涝灾情统计水平,加强灾情统计分析研究,科学编制各个区域洪水风险图,建设包括人口、房屋、道路、农作物、工矿企业、电力通信等重要信息的洪水风险分析平台,形成集基础数据分析、洪涝灾情信息分析、防汛指挥决策分析、防灾减灾效益分析等为一体的防灾减灾分析评价系统,进一步完善洪涝灾情建设体系,为科学研究判定各类险情灾情提供保障。

六是加强灾情统计能力建设。各级防汛指挥机构应按照灾情统计工作的要求,大力加强灾情统计基础设施建设,配备必要的信息处理采集设备,改善灾情统计软件使用环境;应加强灾情统计队伍建设,稳定灾情统计队伍,强化灾情统计人员培训工作,提升统计人员能力水平,确保灾情统计工作顺畅。

七是加强对灾情统计工作的组织领导。各级防汛指挥机构应进一步强化对洪涝灾情统计工作,专门对洪涝灾情统计工作进行安排部署,切实实行防办主要领导负总责、分管领导具体抓的工作体制,具体落实好统计责任人,严格落实工作职责和任务,进一步规范统计报表填报、审核、审查程序,确保洪涝灾情统计工作的质量和效果。

[Abstract]The paper introduces the main technique measures in the construction of cast-in-place girder with the movable module in the Beijing-Shanghai high-speed railway,which include the technique index,assembly technique,cross span control,cast-in-place girder construction and safety control.Furthermore,the effect analysis,the new technique and method in the construction and the safety management measure are introduced.

[Key words]movable module,cast-in-place girder,construction technique

[Abstract]The surface pre-grouting treatment measure with single cement slurry is used in construction of project. Based on the actual terrain and the geology condition,the construction scheme of surface grouting is adopted to reinforce the surrounding rock of cavern.Because the grouting range and drilling layout are similar to the slab culvert shape of the highway,this construction scheme of surface pre-grouting is named the slab culvert type grouting.The paper introduces in detail the design parameter and the range of grouting,the drilling layout,the construction technique,the quality inspection method and result,and so on.

[Abstract]Nierji reservoir and Fengman reservoir are the important control water conservancy projects in Songhuajiang river basin.The great floods which frequency is less than 2%happened sequentially for the two reservoirs in 2013.The two reservoirs play the great role in retaining flood,cutting down flood peak,shifting flood peak and decreasing the flood control pressure of the lower reaches.Through the effective regulations of the two reservoirs,the flood frequency of middle and lower reaches of Nenjiang river basin has been decreased to between 5%and 10%,the flood frequency of lower reaches of the second Songhuajiang river basin has been decreased to more than 20%,the flood frequency of Songhuajiang river basin has been decreased to between 5% and 10%.

[Key words]Songhuajiang river basin;Nierji reservoir;Fengman reservoir;flood retaining effect

[Abstract]The underground powerhouse of Huanggou pumped storage power station is the underground cavern group with about 300m buried depth.The largest working head of pressure pipe with reinforced concrete lining is about 700m.Therefore,the rational test method must be adopted to carry out the high pressure water pressure test for the water diversion branch pipe,the seepage characteristics,seepage stability and critical pressure of the surrounding rock of high pressure branch pipe are determined under the high water head.

[Key words]Huanggou pumped storage power station;high pressure water pressure test;critical pressure

[Abstract]The paper studies the influence of different varieties air entraining agents on the concrete water reducing ratio,the gas content,the variation of gas content in 1h,the compressive strength ratio and the frost resistance effect,analyzes the differences of the various air entraining agents,which could provide the basis for the selection and application of air entraining agent.

[Key words]air entraining agent;water reducing ratio;gas content;compressive strength ratio;frost resistance

[Abstract]Mercury is a persistent and extremely toxicity pollutant in the global cycle and has great damage to water environment and human health.At present,there are mainly three methods of the determination of mercury in surface water,which are the thermal atomic fluorescence method,the cold atomic fluorescence method and cold atomic absorption method.The three methods have respective characteristics in mercury determination. Based on the large number of experimental data,the optimization conditions of each method are summarized. Through the comparative analysis of three methods,the most suitable method of mercury determination in surface water of Liaohe river basin is obtained

[Key words]mercury;thermal atomic fluorescence;cold atomic fluorescence;cold atomic absorption

[Abstract]The paper demonstrates reservoir inflow volume,peak discharge and peak time in different conditions of soil water content and precipitation and calculates the anti storm capacity of reservoir in different conditions of soil water content and regulation priming level.The study shows that water storage of reservoir is more than average water storage after flood period for many years and the volume of detention flood is more after reservoir forecasted flood operation.Combining reservoir simulation forecast with reservoir forecasted flood operation,taking forecast flood volume of reservoir inflow as criterion condition,taking flood control level as control condition,the flood could realize the uniform discharge in advance through the reservoir operation.The maximum utilizable benefit of reservoir is satisfied under the premise of ensuring flood control benefit,which could improve flood water utilization efficiency to realize flood water utilization.

[Key words]Huludao;reservoir;flood water utilization;reservoir flood control operation

[中图分类号]F4

[文献标识码]B

[文章编号]1002-0624(2016)02-0069-02

[收稿日期]#2015-06-23

Influence of fault on arch dam abutment deformation

JIN Hui,XIA Hui,LIU Li,DU Wen-cai

[Abstract]Concrete arch dam of Gaixiaba hydropower station is built on limestone of the lower series of Triassic Jialingjiang formation.The limestone is hard,integrated and uniform,with the high deformation modulus.The fault number is less and scale of the fault is small,their shapes are all narrow and long and there are many fragment and debris in the faults.Through the calculation analysis of fault compression by using the plane finite element,the result shows that the compression of fault is limited and has little impact on arch dam abutment deformation due to the factors of high deformation modulus of arch dam abutment rock and small scale fault,and so on.

[Key words]abutment fault;compression deformation;elliptic double-curvature arch dam;Gaixiaba hydropower station

Construction technique of cast-in-place concrete simple-supported box girder with bridge fabrication machine

TAN Jun-ning

Technique of slab culvert type surface grouting for water conveyance tunnel crossing river

ZONG Zhao-bo

Analysis of retaining effect of Fengman reservoir and Nierji reservoir in Songhuajiang river basin

XUE Mei,FENG Yan,ZHOU Xuan,SUN Qi-wei

Method discussion and result analysis of high pressure water pressure test for tunnel branch pipe

LIU Lu-jun,JI Cong

Difference study on influence of different kinds of air entraining agent on concrete performance

LI Yuan,GAO Kuan

Comparison study on mercury determination method in surface water

ZHENG Guo-chen,PENG Jun,ZHAO Zhe,LIN Guang yu

Simulation study on reservoir regulation of flood water resources utilization in Huludao area

JIN Xin

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