A Looming Impeachment

By+Bai+Shi

Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff said she would fight to maintain power despite suffering a devastating blow from the countrys lower house， which voted to start impeachment proceedings against her on April 17.

Rousseffs opponents， spearheaded by lower house speaker Eduardo Cunha， won 367 votes， exceeding the two thirds of all 513 members needed to send the motion to the Senate. Politicians erupted with emotion after the decision was reached， chanting “I am Brazilian， with lots of pride and love” in Portuguese.

The impeachment proceeding will move to the upper house， the Senate， which is expected to suspend Rousseff if it approves a formal trial.

According to Brazilian law， if the Senate finds Rousseff guilty， she can be permanently removed from office. Rousseff has two opportunities to appeal during the whole process.

She told reporters， “I believe in democracy. This is not the beginning of the end—this is the beginning of a fight.”

Rousseffs quandary

These events seem to indicate that Rousseffs second presidential term， which began in 2015， is likely to come to an untimely end. What happened to the iron lady of Latin America who was able to secure the votes of 54 million people at one point？ Why is there such a strong atmosphere of hostility toward her materializing from the halls of congress to the streets of Brazil？

A variety of factors are at play， but the countrys dismal economic status， political chaos and corruption can be seen as main underlying causes. In particular， the opposition has singled out Rousseffs alleged juggling of federal accounts to make the governments economic performance appear better than it was in the 2014 fiscal year. That laid the foundation for her impeachment proceedings.

The Brazilian Government is required to meet the budget surplus targets set in Congress. Opponents claim that Rousseff gave the government permission to take loans from public banks to the treasury， which artificially enhanced the budget surplus. The illegal manipulation was supposedly conducted ahead of her re-election campaign in 2014， which， if true， probably helped consolidate her candidacy.

Another factor fueling the publics strong discontent comes from the Lava Jato—meaning “car wash”—corruption and money laundering scandal centered around the state oil giant Petrobras. The ongoing investigation， undertaken by the Federal Police of Brazil， started in 2014 and numerous highlevel officials have been implicated.

The investigation reveals that as much as $4 billion was embezzled from Petrobras， and as many as 50 politicians from six major parties have been put under investigation for their alleged involvement in the case. The width and breadth of the jaw-dropping revelations have inflamed the publics distrust of the Rousseff administration.

Although there is no evidence that Rousseff herself was directly involved， her position as former chair of Petrobras from 2003 to 2010 draws suspicion and tarnishes her image. Rousseff has vigorously denied allegations of her involvement in both the Lava Jato scandal and alleged illegal manipulation of the government budget.

This led to mass demonstrations and protests in the streets across Brazil on March 13. Around 3.5 million people took part in protests demanding Rousseffs resignation and expressing support for the Lava Jato investigation.

Rousseff drew further ire from the public when she announced her decision to appoint Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva as chief of staff in her cabinet on March 16. Lula， the former Brazilian president （2003-10）， has also been accused of being involved in the Petrobras corruption case. Due to strong opposition， the Supreme Court dismissed Lulas appointment two days later. Observers believe that Rousseff was planning to exempt Lula—the former leader of the governing WorkersParty—from police investigation.

A power struggle？

Corruption is a chronic problem in Brazilian politics. Many politicians in the Rousseff administration are accused of wrongdoing， including Speaker Eduardo Cunha and Vice President Michel Temer.

Temer is also implicated in the manipulation of government accounts. However， he and his Democratic Movement Party announced on March 29 that they were breaking their coalition with Rousseffs Workers Party and supporting the impeachment.

Cunha， too， is facing corruption charges. Should Temer gain the presidency following a successful impeachment， it is believed that he would seek to detach any culpability for alleged misdeeds as a reward for accelerating the proceedings.

Whats more， if both the president and Temer are suspended from office， the next in line to assume the presidency would be Cunha.

Reeling from the loss of two presumptive allies， Rousseff has denounced the impeachment proceedings as a “coup” and called Temer one of its ringleaders.

“The impeachment has become a power struggle，” according to Evandro Menezes de Carvalho， a research fellow with the renowned Brazilian think tank Getulio Vargas Foundation.

Menezes told Beijing Review that Rousseffs political enemies are trying to grab power. The corruption involves many politicians who are in different parties， but now the opponents want Rousseff and her party to bear all the responsibility.

“Whatever the outcome of the impeachment proceeding， the Brazilian people have been divided into two opposing factions. Domestic politics is facing increasing uncertainty，” Menezes said.

Menezes also claimed that the imbroglio would affect the countrys economic recovery efforts.

Economic challenges

Apart from charges of political corruption and the manipulation of government accounts， the countrys poor economic per- formance under Rousseffs government has also bred discontent throughout the nation.

According to statistics from the Brazilian Government， the countrys GDP contracted sharply in 2015 by 3.8 percent， the worst performance in 25 years.

Zhang Weiqi， a lecturer of Brazilian studies at the Shanghai International Studies University， commented that “2015 was the worst year for the Brazilian economy.”

Almost all economic figures went down due to external and internal reasons.

International oil and commodity prices including iron ore have plummeted in recent years. The Brazilian economy has been badly affected because it relies heavily on exports of those raw materials.

In 2014， the Brazilian Governments deficit accounted for as much as 10.3 percent of the GDP， the highest in its history. Last September， Standard and Poors downgraded the countrys sovereignty rating to BB+. Two other international rating organizations， Moodys and Fitch， also hold dim economic outlooks. As a result， it has become more difficult for Brazil to acquire foreign investment.

Rising unemployment and declines in living standards have also generated additional economic problems. Over 1 million people have lost their jobs. Against that backdrop， Rousseffs government has adopted austerity policies， including increasing tax levies and cutting expenditures.

These measures are necessary in theory. But in practice， its the people who end up footing the bill for the economic downturn. The middle class has taken the brunt of the hit， according to Zhang.

Peoples strong discontent with Rousseff and her coalition government has triggered a chain reaction in Brazil， Zhang said.

Rousseffs approval ratings have plummeted from 42 percent in October 2014 to a mere 8 percent in August 2015. The figure was even lower than Fernando Affonso Collor de Mellos， the first Brazilian president to be impeached in 1992.

Brazils potential as an emerging economy and a growing player in world affairs has been undermined by the brewing political and economic crisis.

For example， the Latin American major power has been in the global spotlight as host of the upcoming 2016 Summer Olympic Games. But now， the Olympic Games have been thrown into uncertainty.

The Organizing Committee of the Rio 2016 Olympic Games announced on March 24 the cancellation of a track cycling test event that was scheduled to be held on April 30 and May 1 due to delays in the velodromes construction. The test match had already been postponed for more than a month.

As Xinhua News Agency commented， no matter how Brazil resolves this crisis， the country must secure its economic recovery and political stability. To revive the emerging economy in Latin America， all political parties need to work together and make compromises rather than partake in a power struggle. They should work together to build a transparent and efficient government， allowing the country to get back on track.