The Chaos in Yemen

By+Ma+Xiaolin

Six Arabic countries， including Egypt， Jordan， Morocco， Sudan， Qatar and Kuwait， agreed on September 6 to join ground forces led by Saudi Arabia to try and defeat the Houthi militias in Yemen. With more multinational troops participating in ground battles to retake the Yemeni capital Sanaa， the situation in the war-torn country is expected to undergo decisive changes.

A critical country

The war against the allegedly Iranian-backed Houthi militias began about six months ago after Yemeni President Abd Rabbuh Mansur Hadi fled to Saudi Arabia on March 25. Saudi Arabia， the strongest Sunni state in the Middle East， has been trying to restore power for President Hadi. Saudi Arabia needs Yemen under Hadis rule to keep the Gulf a Sunni-dominated region. More importantly， Yemen is a key U.S. ally in the fight against al-Qaeda in the region.

The Yemeni domestic policy has been opposed by Houthi militias， a Zaidi group in north Yemen that is seeking greater autonomy for its home province. Hussein Badreddin al-Houthi， founder of the Houthi militias， criticized thenYemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh for allying with the United States in the 2003 Iraq War.

In 2004， al-Houthi started the Houthi in- surgency in its stronghold in north Yemen and advocated establishing an Iran-like theocratic regime in the country. He was reportedly killed by Yemeni government forces later that year. Now the group is reportedly led by his brother Abdul-Malik al-Houthi.

Since last year， Houthis have taken over the government in Sanaa and gained control of a significant part of Yemens territory.

As the war has escalated， the Saudi-led coalition forces have expanded their military interventions from an airstrike campaign to a ground operation in an attempt to recover exiled Yemeni President Hadis control in the country.

Despite 10 countries fighting in the coalition， most governments have only offered symbolic support. Egypt， which has the strongest military force in the coalition， is halfheartedly fighting as it is only returning a favor to Saudi Arabia. The latter gave Egypt billions of dollars of aid after Egypts former president Mohamed Morsi was ousted. In the meantime， Pakistans intervention plan was aborted due to stiff domestic opposition.

The air campaign has yet to strike a heavy blow to the Houthis because of lack of experience and accurate intelligence. In fact， civilian targets were often bombed in the airstrikes， triggering criticism of the joint military intervention. In retaliation， the Houthis launched cross-border missile attacks on Saudi targets.

Root of the chaos

The Saudi Government is fully aware that war is not the only option in solving the Yemeni crisis. Thus， it hasnt closed the door to negotiation. In the last couple of months， delegates from all parties， including the Houthi militias and the Yemeni and Saudi governments， have held talks in Geneva mediated by the United Nations. But the negotiation proved unfruitful because of the wide political differences between the parties. The Saudi and Yemeni governments allege the Houthi rebellion was incited by Iran. The real reason is far more complicated. The uprising in Yemen， in my opinion， is a result of the opposition parties long-term discontent with the countrys political power structure.

The chaos in Yemen started in 2004 during the reign of former Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh. As part of the Arab Spring movement， the Houthis participated in the 2011 Yemeni Revolution. However， the group rejected the November 2011 Gulf Cooperation Council deal that would transfer power from Saleh to his vice president on the grounds that it divided Yemen into poor and wealthy regions. In fact， it wasnt just the Houthis who participated in the uprising. Other political groups and tribes also took part in the revolution， including al-Qaedas Yemen affiliate. The groups tried to use the revolution to grow their forces.

In the months following the revolution， President Saleh was unable to control the domestic situation and compromised in November of 2011 by agreeing to hand over power in an early presidential election. On February 27， Saleh stepped down as president， a title he had held since 1978. His vice president Hadi won the election.

However， the newly elected president was unable to mend the countrys political divisions. The government and Houthi militias reached a temporary consensus and established a federal system， but the deal was soon broken.

Without a common ground for reconcili- ation， military intervention is unlikely to end the confused fighting in Yemen.

The wars prospects

Because of the airstrikes limited success， Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates dispatched ground troops in August to aid Yemeni government forces. The Saudi-led coalition is equipped with more advanced battle tanks and fighter jets than the Houthis. Yemeni President Hadi expects to defeat the Houthi rebels and retake the capital Sanaa with the help of his Gulf allies. This intervention could at least force the Houthi militias back into reconciliation talks.

But some analysts are not optimistic that the war will end soon. The political and social situation in Yemen is very complicated. First， the ground fight will lead to larger casualties， including soldiers and civilians. If the coalition forces suffer heavy losses during the street battles， the Gulf States will need to address stronger anti-war sentiments at home， which might lead to a withdrawal of their respective troops in Yemen. A prolonged war is not what the coalition would have hoped for.

Second， even if Houthi militias are forced to retreat back to their northern stronghold， other political factions are unlikely to completely follow Hadis government. Yemens future is even more uncertain if the coalition intends to prop up other proxies to replace Hadi.

The chaos in Yemen is filled with conflicts， including those between Hadis government and the Houthi rebels， Sunnis and Shiites， the Saudi-led Gulf coalition and Iran， and more than 200 tribes and al-Qaeda. Yemen has been pushed to the brink of collapse.

Under such circumstances， the prospect of a successful Saudi-led military intervention is not likely in the near future. Outside intervention will not bring a fundamental solution to Yemen. Peace in Yemen can only be realized through negotiation based on the interests of all parties in Yemen. But unfortunately， the warring factions are obsessed with the allure of the gun.