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No Risk of Breakdown

2015-09-30

Beijing Review 2015年36期

Bearish sentiment concerning the Chinese economy has been said to constitute a driving force behind the recent slump in the worlds major stock markets. This is nothing less than scapegoating and hyperbolic scapegoating at that. Viewed from a detached perspective, the Chinese economy is healthy by any reasonable set of standard and certainly is not at risk of dragging down the global economy.

The present economic scenario will see China comfortably reaching its growth target of 7 percent set at the beginning of this year. Despite a decline in the past two years, Chinas economic growth remains head and shoulders above other major economies in the world.

Many positive factors in the Chinese economy remain unchanged: the countrys long-term economic outlook continues unabated, a solid foundation exists to support sustainable economic growth, and efforts are being made to push forward economic restructuring. In addition, new growth points are emerging.

Consumption, investment and export are collectively known as the “three engines” for Chinas economic growth. As a result of the ongoing urbanization drive as well as projects such as the construction of underground utility tunnels in cities, the demand for investment is still strong. In addition, the new land and maritime Silk Road programs will boost input in basic infrastructure construction. Investment in hi-tech manufacturing sectors in China is also picking up.

With regard to consumption, in the first half of 2015, Chinas total retail sales of consumer goods experienced an accumulative growth of 10.4 percent over the same period last year. The tertiary industry has become the major contributor to economic growth. With a relatively stable growth in employment and household income, consumption is likely to maintain stable growth for the foreseeable future.

Whats more, Chinas international trade has begun to rebound. With related supportive policies having begun to take effect, exports are projected to grow at a steady pace.

Of course, challenges still remain ahead. In the process of transforming Chinas economic growth model, some enterprises have experienced difficulty in operating their businesses, struggling against the current decline. However, these problems will not have a lasting impact on the overall economy.

Having entered a phase of slower but steadier growth, the Chinese economy will continue to play a positive role in promoting world economic development.