Improvements in US-Cuba Relations and Their Implications

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On December 17, 2014, US President Barack Obama and Cuban President Raul Castro delivered speeches announcing that the two countries will hold negotiations on the resumption of bilateral diplomatic relations. The speeches mark the beginning of a process for the normalization of relations between the US and Cuba.

The US and Cuba have varied motives and intentions for improving bilateral relations, yet this improvement is undoubtedly a “win-win” outcome.More importantly, the improved US-Cuba relations will have significant bearing on the US-Latin American relations, China-Cuba relations, as well as the future of Cuba.

US-Cuba Relations: From Nixon to Obama

Shortly after the victory of the Cuban Revolution in1959, the US recognized the interim government of Cuba. From April 15 to 26 of 1959, Fidel Castro visited the US in private, discussing bilateral relations with former Vice President Richard Nixon. At that time, nobody would have expected that the bilateral relationship would deteriorate, and certainly no one would have expected that the US would impose economic sanctions on Cuba.

How could the US-Cuba relationship deteriorate to such an extent? This sparked a debate in the US on “who lost Cuba” in the 1960s. The following two arguments are representative: one attributes the loss to Cuba’s socialist path. As we all know, during the Cold War, “fighting against the communist influence” was one of the US’ strategic objectives. The US, who rivaled the Soviet Union for global hegemony, was certainly unwilling to see a socialist country in the Western Hemisphere. The other theory claims that Cuban government policy impaired the interests of US capital. On May 17, 1959,Cuba began to implement land reform. According to a decree issued by the Cuban government, large tracts of land owned by American interests in Cuba would be subjected to the tax. The US did not accept the “compensation”program raised by Cuba, but Cuba refused to budge.

In May 1960, the US ceased to provide aid to Cuba. In October, the US levied a trade embargo on Cuba. On January 3, 1961, the US severed diplomatic ties with Cuba.

After President John F. Kennedy assumed office on January 20, 1961,the US accelerated the implementation of a military invasion of Cuba. Before dawn on April 15, American bombers, departing from pro-US Nicaragua,blasted several Cuban airports. The next day, at a mass rally to protest US imperialism, Fidel Castro declared that the Cuban revolution was a socialist revolution. Before dawn of April 17, 1,500 US-trained mercenaries landed at the Bay of Pigs, attempting to overthrow the Cuban government by force.After three days of fighting, Cuba defeated the invaders.

Beginning on February 7, 1962, the US imposed a trade embargo on Cuba. President Kennedy signed No.3447 announcement, declaring that the US embargo against Cuba lies in Cuba “violating the purpose of the pan-American system,” and “overtly forming alliances with Chinese and Soviet communism.” In July, the Soviet Union shipped missiles to Cuba, but this was discovered by the US later. President Kennedy declared a blockade of Cuba by force, and in the meantime demanded that the Soviet Union immediately remove offensive weapons deployed in Cuba. The “Cuban Missile Crisis”ended on January 7, 1963, with the Soviet Union’s eventual retreat. US-Cuba relations further worsened in the aftermath. In order to subvert the Cuban regime, the US even resorted to infamous assassination attempts, but Fidel Castro survived each time.

The world has undergone significant changes since the conclusion of the Cold War. Cuba was confronted with unprecedented economic difficulties after the interruption of aid from Soviet bloc. In October 1992, President George H. W. Bush, who was running for re-election, signed the “Cuban Democracy Act” (1992), also known as “The Torricelli Law,” in Miami, which has a large number of Cuban immigrants. Under the Act, vessels entering Cuban ports were not allowed to enter US ports within six months. American companies in a third country are not permitted to do business with Cuba. And the US imposed sanctions on any country providing aid to or trading with Cuba.President Bush said that the signing of “The Torricelli Law” was the US laying down the hammer. In Miami, some Cuban immigrants who were opposed to the Cuban government believed that Castro was about to step down, and they could go back to Havana for Christmas within two months.

The Clinton administration continued the policy of “promoting change through pressure.” In June 1996, the US implemented a more stringent Helms-Burton Act. Its main contents were: forbidding any third country to sell Cuban products in the US market; forbidding personnel who have investment in or trade relations with Cuba to enter the US; permitting Americans whose property was expropriated by the Cuban government after the Cuban revolution to prosecute in American courts; and forbidding international agencies to provide loans to Cuba.

The international community was strongly opposed to the US’ actions.On July 16, 1996, President Clinton announced the suspension of the provision in the “Helms-Burton Act” relating to suing foreign companies in US courts. So far, this provision has repeatedly been suspended.

On May 12, 2002, former US President Jimmy Carter arrived in Cuba,becoming the first US president to visit Cuba. When Carter’s private plane landed at the airport, Fidel Castro waved to pay tribute to Carter. During his visit to Cuba, Carter visited the Research Center for Genetics Engineering and Biotechnology in Havana, to confirm whether or not Cuba had transferred biotechnology to “rogue” countries. In addition, he also met with some“dissidents” with the permission of the Cuban government, and played base-ball together with Castro. Carter said on live Cuban state television: “Our two countries have been stuck in a destructive state of hostility for as long as 42 years. Now it is time to improve our relations, change the way of thinking and dialogue between us. […] Because the US is a superpower, we should take the first step for this purpose.” However, the US’ hostile policy toward Cuba has not changed.

After Fidel Castro was hospitalized on July 31, 2006, the US stepped up its plan to subvert the current Cuban regime. For the US, in the post-Castro era, Cuba cannot have a power succession, but rather a power transition to democracy. In other words, the US does not want to see Raul Castro as a new Cuban leader who will lead the Cuban people down the same socialist path.

After Obama became President, US policy toward Cuba began to change.On April 13, 2009, the Obama administration announced lifting restrictions on the Cuban Americans traveling to Cuba to visit relatives and sending remittances to Cuban relatives; allowing US telecommunications companies to enter the Cuban telecommunications network construction and satellite broadcasting services markets, authorizing US telecommunications network providers to cooperate with Cubans in building fiber-optic and satellite communications facilities connecting the two countries, allowing US telecommunications service providers to sign a roaming service agreement with the Cuban side,allowing US satellite radio and television service providers to deliver services to customers in Cuba, allowing some personal telecommunications equipment to be donated to Cuba without censor. On June 3, the 39th OAS General Assembly abolished its resolutionin1962 to expel Cuba from the organization,paving the way for Cuba’s return to the OAS. The US changed its original position by expressing support for the resolution. The Cuban government said in a statement via the official Cuban newspaperGranmathat the Cuban government thanked the “Latin American governments for solidarity, the spirit of independence and impartiality, defended Cuba’s right to return to the OAS,” but Cuba will not return to the OAS, because “the organization has been hostile to the implementation of the Cuban policy and the US plays an active role.” Moreover, for Cuba, returning to the OAS would mean denying the US’ chapter of criminal history.

On March 28, 2011, former US President Jimmy Carter visited Cuba again. According to the Carter Center, Carter’s trip was a “private visit,” not an official one. He visit to get well informed on Cuba’s new economic policy and the forthcoming General Assembly of the Cuban Communist Party, and to explore ways to improve bilateral relations between the US and Cuba. Some international media speculated that the purpose of Carter’s trip might include persuading the Cuban government to set free American citizen Alan Gross,who was held in custody in Cuba.

Whether “sperm diplomacy” prompted the improvement of US-Cuba relations has aroused huge attention from international media and critics.On December 10, 2013 the handshake between President Barack Obama and President Raul Castro in Johannesburg, South Africa at former South African President Nelson Mandela’s funeral ceremony also became a major international event. This was a handshake between leaders of two countries with hostility dating back over half a century. US government officials said the handshake was “unplanned,” and it had no connection to any change in the US’ policy towards Cuba.

US Motives to Revamp US-Cuba Relations

It is reported that the US and Cuba have engaged in secret negotiations to improve relations for roughly a year and a half. During this process, the Vatican and Canada made fruitful attempts at mediation between the US and Cuba. The motives for the US to revamp the US-Cuba relationship may be connected to the following factors:

First, President Obama recognizes that US sanctions against Cuba were unsuccessful. During the 2008 presidential election campaign, Obama and his rival John McCain focused more on the Iraq war and the international financial crisis in their debates on US foreign policy, and Latin America was rarely mentioned. However, as early as May 23, 2008, in a speech organized by the Cuban American National Foundation, Obama promised that he would adjust US policy towards Latin America if he were elected president.He said: “It’s time for a new alliance of the Americas. After eight years of the failed policies of the past, we need new leadership for the future. After decades pressing for top-down reform, we need an agenda that advances democracy,security, and opportunity from the bottom up. So my policy towards the Americas will be guided by the simple principle that whatever is good for the people of the Americas is good for the US. This means measuring success not just through agreements among governments, but also through the hopes of the child in the favelas of Rio, the security of policeman in Mexico City, and the answered cries of political prisoners heard from jails in Havana.”1“Renewing U.S. Leadership in the Americas”, Remarks of Senator Barack Obama Cuban American National Foundation, May 23, 2008.

In his speech, Obama elaborated on his policies toward Latin America,including the relaxation of sanctions against Cuba. Obama regards the US’policy towards Cuba over the past 50 years as a failure. Now the US should chart a new chapter in bilateral relations to promote freedom and democracy in Cuba. In order to achieve this goal, the US must abandon partisan interests and instead prioritize national interests. The US should help Cuba achieve a stable, democratic transition, because any turmoil will lead to a huge number of Cuban emigrants and may possibly postpone Cuba’s so-called “dictatorship.”

Obama said he would take the following measures after he assumed the presidency: give the Cuban people access to power, and allow Cuban-Americans unrestricted abilities to visit their relatives in Cuba and remit dollars to Cuba. He remarked that if the “post-Castro regime” begins to implement democratic reforms, release “political prisoners” and hold general elections, the US will take measures for the normalization of bilateral relations and relax its embargo against Cuba.

Second, the US no longer wants to lose the Cuban market. The US’economic blockade against Cuba is by far the longest example of economic sanctions in modern history. The sanctions are called an “embargo” in the US, and they are called a “bloqueo” in Cuba. International sanctions area“double-edged sword.” The sanctions against Cuba have caused huge losses to the Cuban economy, but US economic sectors, especially tourism, transport,manufacturing and agriculture, also lost the Cuban market. The US Chamber of Commerce estimates that the sanctions led to a loss of between 1.2 and 3.6 billion USD to the US economy. Some argue the loss might be as high as 4.84 billion USD, much greater than the loss suffered by Cuba.

Third, there are mounting calls in international and domestic society for the US to improve relations with Cuba. In the US, some people insist that their government continue its strategy of advancing change through pressure,but some people hope that the US government will be bold enough to face the failures of sanctions against Cuba and improve relations as soon as possible.For example, on March 30, 2009, US Senator Richard Lugar sent a letter to President Obama asking him to change the US’ policy toward Cuba in order to achieve the goal of improving US relations with other Latin American countries. The Republican senator, who served as chairman of the US Senate Foreign Relations Committeebetween1985 and 1987, as well as 2003 to 2007,argued that at the Summit of the Americas to be held in Trinidad and Tobago in April 2009, President Obama should strive to achieve above-mentioned objective.2Karen DeYoung, “Lugar Urges Obama to Open Talks With Cuba, Ease Restrictions”, Washington Post,April 2, 2009.

In May 2014, dozens of American celebrities released an open letter to President Barack Obama, calling on the US government to extend greater freedom to private organizations and individuals to directly and indirectly serve as catalysts for meaningful change in Cuba.3“Open Letter to president Obama: ease Cuba trade and travel embargo”, Posted on May 19, 2014, http://havanajournal.com/politics/entry/open-letter-to-president-obama-ease-cuba-trade-and-travel-embargo/

Some think tanks and NGOs in the US are relentlessly urging the US government to abandon sanctions and initiate a normalization of relations with Cuba.

International pressure also cannot be underestimated. In October 2014,the UN General Assembly adopted a non-binding resolution on the fivedecade embargo for the 23rd consecutive year with 188 in favor and three abstentions. The US and Israel voted against it. Alicia Barcena, who is the United Nations Executive Secretary of the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean, said: “Today, it seems that the US is losing more with the embargo than even Cuba is.”4“UN Votes to Condemn US Embargo against Cuba,” China Radio International, October 29, 2014, http://english.cri.cn/12394/2014/10/29/3123s849871.htm.

Wang Min, China’s Deputy Permanent Representative to the UN, stated before voting that “the Chinese Government has always maintained that the international community should base the development of mutual relations on the purposes and principles enunciated in the Charter of the United Nations,should respect the right of all countries independently to choose their social system and path of development, and should oppose the unilateral imposition on countries of military, political, economic or other sanctions.” For its own part, China has always strictly observed and implemented relevant General Assembly resolutions. China and Cuba maintain normal economic and trade relations and conduct personnel exchanges. Overall, the relationship is mutually beneficial, and friendly cooperation continues to grow. This approach is both consistent with the aspirations of the two peoples and conducive to Cuba’s economic and social development. Like most countries, China hopes that the US, in accordance with the purposes and principles of the Charter of the United Nations and the relevant General Assembly resolutions, will put an end to its blockade against Cuba as soon as possible, and China also hopes that relations between the two countries will continue to improve. This will help promote stability and development in the entire Latin American and Caribbean region.5http://www.china-un.org/eng/hyyfy/t1205070.htm.

Cuba’s motives and intentions to improve relations with the US are more easily understood. Under the US sanctions, Cuba cannot obtain capital or technology from the US, the world’s most developed country, nor can it export to the US. It is estimated that the US’ sanctions on Cuba over half a century have caused economic losses of 1.1 trillion dollars to Cuba.6“Cuba says embargo costs nation $3.9b”, China Daily, September 11, 2014, http://usa.chinadaily.com.cn/world/2014-09/11/content_18585180.htm.Currently, Cuba still implements a policy of rationing food and other daily necessities. Among the factors leading to this economy of shortage, the deterioration of Cuba’s external environment resulting from the US sanctions should by no means be downplayed.

The Impact of Improved Relations

Cubans welcome improved ties with the US. Many Cubans say it is good news that they have anticipated for years. But the US has mixed feelings regarding improved relations.

Those who favor the Obama administration’s efforts to improve US-Cuba relations argue that the embargo is now nothing but a remnant of the Cold War.The sanctions, which did not lead to the collapse of the Castro government,have proved ineffective and unnecessary. Moreover, the sanctions against Cuba hit the Cuban people hard and ultimately damaged the US economy. These people argue that the US keeps close economic and trade relations with China,Venezuela and Vietnam, and that the US should therefore also treat Cuba on equal terms. It does not even bear mentioning that Cuba is harmless to the US.

But there are numerous people who oppose Obama’s policy adjustment toward Cuba. They argue that the prerequisites for the US to conclude sanctions are for the Cuban government to release political prisoners, legalize political activities, hold free and fair elections, allow freedom of press, respect human rights and permit trade unions to organize activities. The Cuban government,however, surely has not yet met these conditions. As a result, these people feel that abandoning the embargo will send the wrong signal that the US is weak.It will also “embolden” Cuba: the beneficiaries will not be the Cuban people,but rather the Cuban government and the military. The “surrender” of the US will boost Cuba and other anti-American countries (such as Venezuela,Nicaragua, Bolivia, China and Iran) to unite for the spread of socialism in the Western Hemisphere.

There are 2 million Cubans in the US, and two-thirds of them live in the state of Florida.7Toluse Olorunnipa, “Cuban-Americans Gear Up for Business as Embargo Thaws”, December 18,2014, http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-12-17/cuban-americans-in-miami-gear-up-for-business-asembargo-thaws.html.In 1991, 87 percent of Cuban-American supported the US government’s sanctions on Cuba. By 2011, this percentage had dropped to 53 percent.8http://cuba-embargo.procon.org/A recent poll conducted by Florida International University in June 2014 showed that 68 percent of Cuban-Americans approve the normalization of US-Cuba relations, while 52 percent of respondents want the US to abandon its sanctions on Cuba.9http://www.npr.org/blogs/thetwo-way/2014/06/17/323027358/most-cuban-americans-oppose-embargopoll-finds.

It should be noted that although President Obama pledged to improve the relationship between the US and Cuba, it is uncertain if the US Congress will repeal the laws that legalize sanctions against Cuba, which were first implemented during President Kennedy’s term.

Either way, the US and Cuba have taken a hard and important step,and the two countries will not withdraw from this process. More importantly,the new US-Cuba ties will exert a huge impact on the wider relations in the Western hemisphere and on China’s relations with Cuba.

Latin American countries have opposed US sanctions against Cuba for years. Since December 2011 when the Community of Latin American and Caribbean countries was established, the call for the US to abandon sanctions against Cuba has been growing. As a result, the major adjustment in US policy toward Cuba will not only help the US enter the Cuban market, but also help improve the US’ image in Latin America.

On April 23, 2013, Secretary of State John Kerry said at the House of Representatives Foreign Affairs Committee that Latin America is the US’backyard. On November 18 of the same year, Secretary Kerry emphasized in a speech delivered to the Organization of American States: “Gone are the times of the Monroe Doctrine.” These goodwill gestures of the Obama administration can be viewed as a major move to improve US relations with Latin American countries. Leaders of Latin American countries have all expressed their appreciation for the speech on improving US-Cuba relations.

Over the past several dozen years, with the surge of Latin American leftist forces, there has often been remarkable discord within Latin American countries. On the question of how to deal with US-Latin America relations,“anti-American” and “pro-American” stances are unmistakably clear. Venezuela, Cuba and some other countries joined hand to forge a camp of so-called“anti-American” countries. The improvement of relations between the US and Cuba may weaken the anti-American forces in this camp, and it will probably prompt relations between these countries and the US to develop and grow.This implies that the US and Latin American countries will reduce their divergences within the Organization of American States, and that the role of the organization in coordinating US-Latin America relations and overseeing Western hemisphere affairs will be strengthened.

In April 2015, the 7th OAS Summit will be held in Panama, and Panama has extended an invitation to Cuba. The enhanced US-Cuba relationship will pave the way for the Cuban leader Raul Castro to attend this meeting. This suggests that the upcoming OAS Summit could be the first meeting attended by the leaders of all 35 countries on the American continent.

The half-century of sanctions against Cuba by the US have leveled an indelible hurt on the Cuban people. In the foreseeable future, it will be impossible for Cuban-American relations to return to their state before the Cuban Revolution, when Cuba was a “bridgehead” for the US in the Caribbean region.

That said, the improved US-Cuba relations will not only enhance the sense of victory and pride of the Cuban people, but also effectively expand Cuba’s international flexibility, helping Cuba integrate into the international community. This will help Cuba play a greater role in international and Latin American regional affairs, but will also be conducive to Cuba expanding its international influence. Cuba will have a greater voice in multilateral institutions, especially in the Group of 77, the Non-Aligned Movement, Latin America and the Caribbean Community and the Organization of American States.

Cuba will get more foreign investment, including investment from the US, and receive more assistance from international financial institutions. Cuba is also likely to speed up reform and become more open and integrated into world economy as well.

In this process, Cuba will not give up its socialist path, nor will it relinquish the leadership of the Communist Party. The Cuban people believe that it is precisely because Cuba adheres to the socialist path and upholds the leadership of the Communist Party that the US sanctions failed in Cuba.

After the improvement of US-Cuba relations, the expanded openness will increase the difficulty for the Cuban government to control the press and information, and the difficulty of fighting against peaceful evolution cannot be underestimated.

China and the US are working towards a new model of major-power relations, while China maintains a special friendly relationship with Cuba,who is grateful for China’s unwavering support. Given that China pursues the diplomatic concept of a harmonious world and opposes hegemonic practices,China is glad to see an improvement in US-Cuba relations.

For China, it can take less account of the “American factor” when dealing with Cuba. China can be bolder in its cooperation with Cuba in strategic areas. In this regard, enhanced US-Cuba relations are helpful for China to further develop bilateral relations with Cuba.

Since the normalization of US-Cuba relationship will improve Cuba’s external environment and accelerate its integration into the world economy, its economic openness will further deepen and the investment environment will further improve. All of this will expand China’s economic presence in Cuba.

However, as American companies gain opportunities and the convenience of entering the nearby Cuban market, Chinese companies will have to face the fierce competition of American companies in the Cuban market. US companies will have a distinct edge in the Cuban market for both geographical and historical reasons.