Land Use Change and Driving Forces in Guangzhou City during 1996－2012

Yiying YAO，Dafang WU*，Yanyan LIU，Yihua LIU，Qixian CHEN，Haolong CHEN，Jiaxin WU，Jialiang ZHONG

1.School of Geographical Sciences，Guangzhou University，Guangzhou 510006，China；2.Civil Architecture Science Research and Design Institute of Guangzhou，Guangzhou 510055，China

1 Introduction

LUCC（Land-Use and Land-Cover Change）is an important part causing global change，and many scholars lay great emphasis on the study of drivingmechanism of LUCC［1］.In 1995，the International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme（IGBP）and the International Human Dimensions Programme（IHDP）jointly proposed the scientific research project on LUCC to which the experts and scholars from various counties attached importance［2-8］.Currently，LUCC researchmethods have developed towards the direction of comprehensive development，and emphasize integrated treatment of a variety of methods.3S technology is used to analyze LUCC aswell as its driving forces［9-12］.With the rapid development of China's economy，many experts and scholars have explored LUCC of China's cities［10-21］.Luo Ya uses three indicators（land-use change importance index，land-use change area proportion，and vegetation change index）to analyze the land use change in Hekou Town-Tongguan during 1998-2010［10］.Based on regional land use change，Gao Zhiqiang uses the dynamic environmentalmodel to simulate land use situation in China［11］.Fang Xiuqin uses decision tree and SVM method to analyze the land use change in Laohahe River basin over the past four decades［12］.Ye Xin et al.analyze the land use change trend and driving forces based on CAmodel［13］.Taking Guangzhou City for example，Zeng Juan analyzes the carbon emission effect of land use change in Guangzhou City［14］.Gong Jianzhou etal.［15-16］analyze the optimization of land use structure in Guangzhou City and land use potential.Liao Jiwu et al.［17］use GIS technology to analyze the influence of ocean on land use change in coastal zone.Chen Minghui［18］takes Nantuo Districtof Guangzhou City for example to analyze the dynamic changes in land use structure on the urban fringe.The existing studies focus on the correlation analysisof urban land use change，because the data is difficult toobtain，and it often lacks the comparative analysis of long time series land use data.Therefore，for the Pearl River Delta，carrying out long time series land use change analysis is of important practical significance to local socio-economic development［22-24］.Based on the survey data on land use change，this paper analyzes the overall situation and characteristics of land use change in Guangzhou City during 1996-2012，and explores the factors influencing land use change in Guangzhou City in order to promote sustainable land use in Guangzhou City.

2 Study area and data sources

2.1 Study areaGuangzhou（112°57′-114°3′E，22°26′-23°56′N）also known as Canton，is the capital and largest city of Guangdong Province in South China.Located on the Pearl River，about120 km north-northwest of Hong Kong and 145 km north of Macau，Guangzhou serves as an important national transportation hub and trading port.One of the five National Central Cities，it holds sub-provincial administrative status.Guangzhou is the third largest Chinese city and the largest city in South Central China.Some estimates place the population of the entire Pearl River Delta Mega City built-up area as high as 44 million including Guangzhou's nine urban districts，Shenzhen（10.36 million），Dongguan（8.22 million），Zhongshan（3.12 million），most parts of Foshan（7.20million），Jiangmen（1.82million），Zhuhai（0.89 million）and Huyang County of Huizhou（0.76million）adjoining Dongguan and Shenzhen，with an area of about 17573 km2［16］.Located in the south-central portion of Guangdong，the city is part of the Pearl River Delta and the city center is situated next to the Baiyun Mountain.The total area under the city's administration is 7434.4 km2.The elevation of the prefecture generally increases from southwest to northeast，withmountains forming the backbone of the city，and the ocean comprising the front. In 2012，Guangzhou's GDP reached 1355.121 billion yuan，ranked first in the nation.With the growing population，Guangzhou is facing environmental degradation，resource shortages，rapid expansion of construction land，irrational land use structure and other issues.The analysis of land use change and its driving forces in Guangzhou City can better promote the sustainable development of Guangzhou.

2.2 Data sourcesThrough a review of relevant literature on land use data in Guangzhou City，we study the land use change and its driving forces，and use the base period data of overall land use planning in Guangzhou as auxiliary data，for the analysis and comparison of land use change data over the years in Guangzhou City.Through processing，the land use data（1996，2000，2005，2012）and data analysis chartof various land use types in Guangzhou City are obtained.

Table 1 Land use change in Guangzhou City during 1996－2012

3 Analysis of land use structure in Guangzhou City

3.1 Analysis of changes in land use amountIn 1990，the total land area of Guangzhou was706799 ha，including 129344 ha of arable land，212 ha of grassland，285547 ha of woodland，12722 ha of transportation land，95418 ha of land for residential，industrial and mining use，and 21911 ha of unused land.Compared with 1990，the total land area was 728655 ha in 2005，including 104198 ha of arable land，110756 ha of garden plot，219 ha of grassland，269602 ha of woodland，128243 ha of land for residential，industrial and mining use，16759 ha of transportation land，and 9473 ha of unused land.With the further development of the economy，the total land area was 731260 ha in 2012，and there were great changes in the land use amount.The area of arable land was84567 ha，accounting for11.8%；the area ofgarden plotwas 108114 ha，accounting for 15.1%；the area ofwoodland was258937 ha，accounting for 36.2%；the area of grassland was 126 ha，accounting for 0.01%；the area of land for residential，industrial and mining use was139973 ha，accounting for 19.6%；the area of transportation land was 20648 ha，accounting for 2.9%；the area of unused land was 8978 ha，accounting for 0.6%.Table 1 shows thatwith the acceleration of social development and urbanization，the overall trend of land use structure change in Guangzhou City during 1996-2012 was that construction land increased year by yearwhile agricultural land and unused land continued to decline.In 1996-2012，there were significant changes in the land use amount，and arable land and woodland were reduced greatly，which had some adverse effects on sustainable development and ecological city construction.At the same time，the increase of land for residential，industrial and mining use and transportation land indicates that the city continues to grow，and we needmore rational planning and guidance.In 2012，the used land area was 702210 ha，and the land utilization rate reached 96%.During1996-2012，the area ofarable land greatly decreased，down from 129286 ha in 1996 to 84567 ha in 2012，and the proportion declined from 17%to 11%；woodland also decreased，from the original 39%to 36%in 2012；the area of garden plot rose，from 11%in 1996 to 15%in 2012.Meanwhile，the area of other land in unused land decreased from 66978 ha in 1996 to 4599 ha in 2012，and the proportion fell from 3%to the current 0.6%；the area of construction land significantly increased，and the area of land for residential，industrial andmining use constantly increased，from the original13%to 19%in 2012.

3.2 Analysis of rate of land use changeThe dynamic degree of land use change refers to the rate of annual change in land use amount，and it can be used tomeasure the rate of land use change according to the change in the amountof a certain land use type in a certain area at a certain time［25-26］.The dynamic degree of land usemainly uses the dynamic change in land use in different periods for analysis［27-28］.The dynamic degree of land use can better reflect the change in land use type to some extent［30-32］.The dynamic degree of land use change in Guangzhou City during1996-2012 is calculated as follows［29］：

where K is the dynamic degree of a certain land use type in the study period；Uaand Ubare the amount of a certain land use type at the beginning and end of the study，respectively；T is the length of study period，and when T is year，the value of K is the rate of annual change in a certain land use type in the study area.

As can be seen from Fig.1，during 1996-2012，there was an increase in the land for residential，industrial and mining use，transportation land，irrigation works land and other agricultural land，while therewas a decline in other land types.In the agricultural land，arable land，woodland and grassland showed a downward trend，and the dynamic degree of pasturewas largest，which was related to the dwindling area of grassland.The arable land was also shrinking，and the dynamic degree of change was large.In the category of construction land，the dynamic degree of transportation land was high，approaching 7.1%，indicating that the transportation network continued to improve in Guangzhou City.In the category of unused land，the unused land area declined during 1996-2012，indicating thatGuangzhou further developed and utilized land to a certain extent.

4 Analysis of spatial structure of land use in Guangzhou City

From the spatial distribution of land use in Guangzhou City in 2005（Table 2），it can be found that there were obvious regional differences in the spatial distribution of land use type in Guangzhou City.The arable land was concentrated，and the area of arable land in Zengcheng，Conghua and Panyu accounted for 73.75%of totalarable land in the city（Table2）.Similarly，garden plotand woodland occupied a large proportion in Conghua and Zengcheng，accounting formore than 65%of garden plot in the city.Due to fast economic development and urbanization in Guangzhou，the proportion of the land for residential，industrial and mining use continued to rise.The proportion of land for residential，industrial andmining use and transportation land was high in Baiyun，Panyu and Zengcheng，and irrigationworks land was concentrated in Zengcheng，Conghua and Panyu［33］.From the spatial distribution of land use in Guangzhou in 2012（Table 2），it can be found that therewere obvious regional differences in the spatial distribution of land use types in Guangzhou City.The administrative division of Guangzhou was adjusted twice during1996-2012，and the adjusted administrative region included 10 districts（Liwan，Luogang，Panyu，Huadu，Yuexiu，Haizhu，Baiyun，Huangpu and Tianhe）and 2 cities（Zengcheng and Conghua）［33］.The area in some regions varies，and the horizontal comparison would produce a certain error，so this study lays greater emphasis on the horizontal comparison of the same year when analyzing the spatial structure of land use in Guangzhou.We can see that 76.14%of arable land in the city was concentrated in Luogang，Conghua，Zengcheng and Huadu，and the proportion decreased slightlywhen compared with 2005.The proportion of the land for residential，industrial and mining use and transportation land continued to increase.In various districts，the proportion of agricultural land declined，while the proportion of construction land，especially the land for residential，industrial and mining use increased.

5 Analysis of driving forces

Land use change，the result of many factors，reflects change in human and natural environment and socio-economic development［34］.In order tomake the analysis of driving forcesmore comprehensive and thorough，this paper compares Guangzhou with other developed cities such as Beijing，Shanghaiand Shenzhen.It can be found that the satellite city construction causes great land use changes in Beijing，and makes construction land substantially increase［35］；an important reason for land use change in Shanghai is the rapid developmentof the economy which leads to changes in land use patterns，andmigrant labor and policies are of great sig-nificance to its development［36-37］.

5.1 Econom ic factorsThe analysis of driving forces for urban expansion at home and abroad suggests that population growth and socio-economic development，are the major drivers of urban sprawl［38］.Themain influencing factorsare economic development and social progress，and the rapid urbanization and industrialization have resulted in the restructuring and development of relevant industries［39］.Fig.2 shows that Guangzhou's GDP rose steadily and rapidly during 1996-2012.The unit GDP rapidly increased from 146.806 billion yuan in 1996 to 249.274 billion yuan in 2000；the unit GDP reached 1355.121 billion yuan in 2012，9 times the GDP of Guangzhou in 1996.Meanwhile，affected by"development craze"and"realestate craze"，the changes in various types of land have been accelerated［40］.

Table 2 The proportion of land use types in Guangzhou in 2005 and 2012 Unit：%

In order to better reflect the relationship between GDP and land use，this paper uses the change in economic density of land for analysis.The economic density of land is the ratio of annual GDP in one region to land area in the region［41］.By land economic density calculation，we can measure the economic benefits of regional land to providemore guidance and help for regional development.Using the following equation（2），we can calculate the regional economic density of land：

where P is economic density of land；G isGDPof this region；L is the total land area in this region.

To better understand the changes in economic density of land，herewe use formula（3）to better reflect the annual changes in land density in one region.

where Pmis the economic density of land in year m；Pm-1is the economic density of land in year m-1；Pnis the rate of annual changes in economic density of land.

By calculation，we can get the change in economic density of land during 2006-2012 after the administrative adjustment of Guangzhou（Table 3）.According to the theory of Kuznets curve，the change in economic density of land is correlated with inverted U-shaped Kuznets curve.In the city's economic development，the change in economic density of land is increased with the economic development，butwhen it reaches a certain level，it begins to decrease and showsgradual improvementafter the first deterioration.From Table 3，we can see that during 2006-2012，the rate of change in economic density of land in Guangzhou first slowly rose and then gently decreased（upper part of inverted U-shaped curve），and it showed the variation similar to inverted Kuznets U-shaped curve［42］.We can see that the economic density of land significantly increases ata certain stagewhile Guangzhou's urbanization is accelerating.Overall，with Guangzhou's economic development and urban construction，the economic density of land will gradually rise and show a high level，buta series of problems also attract the attention of relevant departments.The land use change in Guangzhou City is restricted by economic factors，and the land use will further change with economic development and urban upgrading in Guangzhou，reflecting the close relationship between land use and economic development.

Table 3 The rate of change in econom ic density of land in Guangzhou City during 2006－2012 Unit：%

5.2 Demographic factorsAs an important part of the urban spatial structure，the urban population and its distribution changes will affect the economic development and people's living standards in Guangzhou City［43-44］.The study on spatial distribution of population density can reflect the level of economic development in one region，so the study on urban land use density has received much attention［45］.With the deepening of reform and opening up and geographical advantages in Guangzhou City，it has attracted a large population，and the population has grown rapidly since 1996.The total household population increased from 6560508 in 1996 to 8222969 in 2012.It can be seen from Table 4 that during 2000-2012，the population density rose in Guangzhou，from 942 persons／km2in 2000 to 1106 persons／km2in 2012（Fig.4）.The rate of change was greatest in Tianhe District（after administrative adjustment），reaching 68%，from 6433 persons／km2in 2005 to 10812 persons／km2in 2012.Population growthwill inevitably lead to the increase of housing and transportation land.When land area remains unchanged，the increase in construction land will cause reduction of other land，and make the land on the fringe of city change into urban construction land.The increase in population makes land use density increase，and the land use patternswill also change，having a profound effect on land use change and urban space layout of the entire city［46］.Thus，demographic factors also caused great land use changes in Guangzhou City during this period［47］.

Table 4 Population density in Guangzhou City during 2000－2012 Unit：persons／km2

5.3 Terrain factorsThe terrain is high in northeast but low in southwest of Guangzhou City，so Zengcheng and Conghua in northeast have a lotofwoodland.Tianhe District，Yuexiu District and Liwan Districtwith developed economy are in the central flat terrain，which is suitable for urban expansion and development.In the districtswith developed economy such as Yuexiu，Tianhe and Haizhu，the construction land elevation is low and the terrain is relatively flat.Zengcheng，Conghua and Huadu are in the north of Guangzhou，with high terrain，showing that topography has a certain impact on Guangzhou's land use patterns.During 1996-2000，the city first expanded in the northwestern plain，and a lot of agricultural land was changed into construction land.After 2000，the direction of expansion of construction land shifted from northwestern plains to southeastern hills，and the land use patterns changed in southeast，indicating that terrain factors have a significant impact on land use development and change in Guangzhou City.

5.4 Policy factorsLand use change is often closely related to government policies and requirements［48］.In Pearl River Delta Reform and Development Plan，it points out that it is necessary to develop and utilize land resources through scientific and rational approach to improve land use efficiency and utilization value［49］.National Urban System Plan（2005-2020）points out that it is necessary to take Guangzhou City as the core of Pearl River Delta city cluster，enhance the overall function of Guangzhou City，strengthen regional competitiveness and optimize the spatial structure to promote the development of Pan-Pearl-River-Delta［50］.Guangzhou needs to improve land use，in order to better adapt to the new time requirements［50］.There is also a need to protect land resources and constantly optimize the land use structure while developing economy to promote the sustainable development of land use in Guangzhou［51］.

6 Conclusions and recommendations

6.1 ConclusionsWith the socio-economic development and urbanization improvement，there were dramatic changes in land use types in Guangzhou City during 1996-2012［52］.In this period，construction land showed an increasing trend；affected by increase in construction land，agricultural land decreased，and especially the reduction of arable land was particularly evident；woodland always decreased while garden plot and waters increased slightly；there were significant fluctuations in unused land during the study period.During 1996-2012，arable land，woodland，grassland，irrigation works land and unused land decreased by 34.6%，9.4%，45.1%，24.9%and 78.9%，respectively；garden plot，other agricultural land，land for residential，industrial and mining use and transportation land increased by 27.4%，86.1%，46.7%and 62.8%，respectively.Economic factors and policy factors are themost important factors driving the change of land use in Guangzhou，and economic developmentand population increase have a significant impact on land use change in Guangzhou City［53］.

6.2 Recommendations

6.2.1Strengthening urban and rural coordination and steadily pushing forward the rural construction land consolidation.It is necessary to coordinate urban and rural development and promote the sustainable use of land resources in Guangzhou.There is a need to rationally use a variety of urban and rural land resources，strengthen rural land consolidation，integrate resources and funds，promote intensive land use，and improve farmers'production and living conditions.

6.2.2Strengthening the protection of arable land and farmland quality construction.In the process of vigorously promoting urban construction in Guangzhou City，many problems have occurred such as sharp decrease in the quantity and quality of arable land.Therefore，there is a need to better enhance protection and management of arable land and farmland quality construction，so that the quantity and quality of arable land can bemaintained at a certain level.It is necessary to protect high-quality arable land，to promote the sustainable development of land use in Guangzhou City.

6.2.3Improving the intensive and economical use of construction land.In the urbanization process，a lot of agricultural land and unused land transforms into construction land，leading to uncoordinated land use.Therefore，increasing the intensive and economical use level of construction land helps to improve the efficiency of land use，save land，effectively solve conflicts between increasing construction land and other land，and improve the overall quality of land use.

6.2.4Establishing land usemanagement system and improving the regulatory mechanism.There is a need to establish a sound land use management system，better improve the regulatory system，and strengthen overall management of land resources and land use.Meanwhile，it is necessary to strengthen strict scrutiny and oversighton standards，approval procedures，implementation，acceptance criteria and projectmaterials of land development and consolidation project，to improve scientificity of land usemanagement system.

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