A Delicate Transition

By+Bai+Shi

Afghanistan stands at a histori- cal crossroads. Although the outcome of its third presidential election is still up in the air， its only a matter of time until the landlocked and rugged country will see off President Hamid Karzai who has been in power since 2001 and will step down after a new government takes office. Meanwhile， combat troops led by the North Atlantic Treaty Organization （NATO） are due to finish their withdrawal before the end of this year， leaving the Islamic republic and her people to determine their own destiny.

Afghanistans future is highly important for the security and stability of the region. During his visit to Kabul in February， Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said the international community—including neighboring China—hopes to see a united， stable， prosperous and friendly Afghanistan. To achieve this objective， China and other states will continue to offer aid， Wang added.

But Afghanistan has been torn by decades of conflict， terrorism and poverty. Hua Liming， a senior researcher with the Beijing-based China Institute of International Studies， said that Afghanistans future depends on whether it can tackle the three major challenges spanning political， security and economic fronts.

Triple challenges

Afghanistans first challenge is to undergo a power transition. The process， however， has not gone as smoothly as many hoped. Voting for the third presidential election since the Talibans fall in 2001 was held as early as on April 5. Neither of the two candidates—former Foreign Minister Abdullah Abdullah and former Finance Minister Mohammad Ashraf Ghani Ahmadzai—surpassed the winning threshold by receiving over half of the total votes， but Abdullah secured the lead.

The presidential run-off election took place on June 14 in line with the election law， with a preliminary count showing that Ghani took 1 million votes more than his rival Abdullah. But Abdullah refused to acknowledge the outcome and made claims of electoral rigging. At the request of the Independent Election Commission of Afghanistan and the two candidates， the run-off election results were audited under UN oversight. Due to the complicated audit work and disputes between the two candidates， the Independent Election Commission has repeatedly postponed announcing the result. Fears have grown that Afghanistans political system will suffer if the election is not resolved promptly.

Security is another uncertainty. In most areas of Afghanistan， the NATO-led International Security Assistance Force （ISAF） undertook security duties in the past decade since the fall of the Taliban regime at the end of 2001. Moreover， U.S. and other NATO combat troops played a crucial role in major battles against the Taliban. Another important task of the ISAF was to train Afghan military forces.endprint

After U.S. President Barack Obama announced the withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan in 2009， ISAF has been handing over security duties to Afghan troops. In his final address to the parliament in March， President Karzai said that Afghan security forces had protected 93 percent of the country and were prepared to take over entirely.

But it is still uncertain whether Afghanistans fledging security forces are capable of preventing the resurgence of extremist militants who hide in remote mountainous areas near the border between Afghanistan and Pakistan.

Though the security situation in Afghanistan was notably stable during the presidential election， the Taliban is reportedly preparing for a comeback after foreign combat troops leave the country.

In recent years， a string of deadly attacks against the U.S. and NATO military installations have been carried out by insiders in Afghan security forces. NATO officials estimated that about 25 percent of these attacks were the result of Taliban infiltration into the security forces， the BBC reported.

Furthermore， Afghanistan has not signed a bilateral security agreement with the United States. According to a previous agreement reached by the two countries， some foreign special forces would stay in Afghanistan to conduct counterterrorism operations in addition to the support and training of Afghan forces. President Obama warned that all U.S. troops would withdraw by the end of the year if the bilateral security agreement remains unsigned.

Chaos and disorder could once again plague Afghanistan if the United States and international community cannot provide adequate aid in security and development after the withdrawal of U.S. and NATO troops， Karl W. Eikenberry， former U.S. Ambassador to Afghanistan， said in an interview with Beijingbased Caijing Magazine.

Despite challenges， Afghan Ambassador to China Qiamuddin Rai Barlas said， “With the support of the international community， Afghanistan has made achievements in political， economic and social issues in past years.”

Examples of success noted by Barlas include the creation of a new constitution and the holding of three presidential and parliamentary elections after 2001. In addition， thousands of kilometers of asphalt roads have been built in Afghanistan， more than 11.5 million children and youth have been enrolled into schools and universities， and the government has provided healthcare services for more than 89 percent of the Afghan population. The nations income per capita increased five times in the past decade.endprint

Chinas role

China and Afghanistan share a border totaling 92 km. As Afghanistans neighbor， China is willing to help reconstruct the country and develop its economy. In fact， China has always provided support in various forms for Afghanistan since the government led by Karzai took office.

On July 10， the Senior Officials Meeting of the Heart of Asia-Istanbul Process was held in Beijing. By hosting the meeting， China demonstrated its willingness to play a constructive role in promoting Afghanistans peace process， Hua said.

The Asia-Istanbul Process is an international cooperation mechanism consisting of 14 member states， including Afghanistans neighbors and countries that are deeply concerned about its future， such as China， Russia and India. The mechanism is irreplaceable in promoting the Afghan peace process， said Qu Xing， President of the China Institute of International Studies.

Compared with other cooperation mechanisms dominated by big powers， the AsiaIstanbul Process provides a platform for regional countries and developing countries to discuss Afghan issues， Qu said.

War is not a universal solution to all issues； rather， economic development is a fundamental prerequisite for relieving poverty and preventing extremism， said Hua. He added that China has committed to supporting infrastructure construction in Afghanistan and expanding bilateral trade and investment links.

In recent years， China and Afghanistan have made frequent exchanges of high-level visits and further deepened mutual trust， said Chinese Ambassador to Afghanistan Deng Xijun. Today， the two countries have achieved remarkable strides in cooperation in trade， energy and resources， communication， agriculture and anti-drug operations.

China has provided much aid to facilitate economic development and improve peoples livelihood in Afghanistan. In addition， China encourages her enterprises to invest in Afghanistan. For example， Chinas oil giant China National Petroleum Corp. won a bid to develop the Amu Darya oil field in north Afghanistan in 2011， and China Metallurgical Group has been permitted to mine copper in Aynak. Chinas huge investments in the two projects shows its resolution to support Afghanistans economic development as well as its confidence in the political and security situation of Afghanistan after the 2014 transition， said Zhao Minghao， a researcher at the China Center for Contemporary World Studies.endprint