India’s Electoral Endeavor

By+lou+Chunhao

the longest election in Indias history will take place over nine phases from April 7 to May 12 as 815 million eligible voters cast their ballots. Having prepared for the campaign years in advance， Indian political parties will vie for power in a contest that will draw international attention to Indias domestic and foreign policies in the coming five years. Major changes may be in store as the nation battles a host of pressing challenges， but many fundamental features of Indian political life will remain unchanged.

Changing political pattern

Currently， there are two major national-level political powerhouses in India： the incumbent Indian National Congress （INC）-led United Progressive Alliance and the Hindu-nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party （BJP）-led National Democratic Alliance. Starting in the 1970s， Indian politics bid farewell to the one-party dominance of the INC and entered an era of multi-party coalition rule， mainly composed of the two alliances.

However， recent polls hint at an impending shake-up of Indias political pattern， with the BJP winning out and a third force increasingly asserting its growing influence. Indias mainstream newspaper The Indian Express recently forecasted that the BJP alone will win 245 seats in the coming election. The share of the BJP alliance will easily exceed 272 seats， which are required for a majority in the 543-seat lower house. The seats of the INC alliance are likely to total only 79， significantly lower than the lowest ever seats acquired by the INC alone—114 in 1999.

While the BJP and the INC continue their ups and downs， a more compelling story is that of the sudden rise of a third force in Indian politics. In the 2013 Delhi legislative assembly election， the year-old Aam Aadmi Party （AAP） surprisingly emerged as the second largest party of the Delhi local parliament and formed a minority government replacing the INC， which had ruled the city over the past 15 years. At present， AAP leader Arvind Kejriwal has already resigned from the post of the Delhi chief minister， devoting himself to the national campaign behind the potential new dark horse of the general election.

The possible change in Indias political pattern and reshuffle of political forces have several motivating factors， chief among which are inadequate economic growth， severe corruption and anemic reform caused by the poor governance of the INC in the past five years.

Under the impact of the U.S. and European economic crisis， Indias economy has lost its prior vigor and slowed drastically since 2009. Particularly since 2011， it has seen a notable drop in its growth and high inflation， foreshadowing an era of stagnation. Meanwhile， the economy has also seen a coexisting fiscal and trade deficit as well as a rapid drop in the exchange rate of its currency. Even the normally optimistic Western media have expressed doubts， declaring，“Farewell to the Indian miracle.”endprint

Rife corruption cases in the past several years have precipitated a dramatic loss of public support for the ruling INC. If the INC was high-spirited and vigorous when it won the general election in 2004， its repeat victory in 2009 coincided with a fall to a vested interest group burdened with corruption. Corruption allegations against the Organizing Committee of the 2010 Commonwealth Games， the 2010 mobile license scandal and the 2012 coal allocation scam comprised a damaging string of public scandals. A wave of unprecedented anti-corruption protests have swept India in the past two years， aggravating peoples distrust of the INC， as evidenced by the partys provincial election losses.

Whats more， the INCs insufficient progress in reform has dealt a crippling blow to public confidence in the ruling coalition. As the most time-honored political party in India， boosted by the political charm of the Nehru family as well as Prime Minister Manmohan Singhs hailed performance as the chief designer of the countrys economic reform， the INC should have recovered enough to field strong candidates. But the INC economic reform plan released in 2012 was a lackluster effort， with many reform initiatives being shelved. In addition， Rahul Gandhi， the heir of the Nehru-Gandhi political dynasty， shows a clear lack of political experience and skill and has been unable to attract wide support.

In sharp contrast with the poor performance of the INC， the BJP and the AAP have comparative advantages. The BJP has a sound primary-level organization building system and is less tainted by scandals. BJP prime ministerial candidate Narendra Modi is known for his high efficiency， diligence and skilled governance. Though his handling of the Gujarat religious conflict in 2002 drew skepticism， Modis outstanding political capability is universally recognized. Under Modis leadership， Gujarat developed at a breakneck pace in the past decade. It has been dubbed Indias Guangdong， one of the fastest growing provinces in China. The AAP， though a relatively young political force， is popular among middle-class and youth voters as it champions the banners of anti-corruption and populism.

Unchanged election culture

Even amid busy campaigning of the election season， as political parties fight for power and party platforms are reorganized， some fundamental features within the Indian political system remain unchanged. No matter which party wins the 2014 general election， it is certain that political opportunism， money politics and coalition politics will reign supreme.endprint

Political opportunism is very prominent in Indian elections. All major parties turn to populist policy platforms that may clash with economic laws in order to cater to voters. This “competitive populism” ends up hurting national development in the long run. For instance， shortly after the AAP won the Delhi election， it adopted a decision to ban foreign investments in the citys supermarkets. Though the move was intended to save the numerous “family stores” in the city， it ultimately damaged the normal economic development and fundamental interests of customers.

The cost of the 2014 Indian general election is estimated to reach $4.9 billion—about three times that of the last general election， and second only to the 2012 U.S. presidential elections total cost of $7 billion. With the growing amount of election spending， the Indian election system is becoming a game for the rich. Meanwhile， money politics also creates money-oriented politicians， aggravating the nations corruption problem. Data from the 2004 and 2009 elections show that the poorest 20 percent of candidates， in terms of personal financial assets， had a 1 percent chance of winning parliamentary elections. The richest quintile， in contrast， had a greater than 25 percent shot.

Coalition politics will continue to be a major feature of Indian elections. At present， as the number of competing social forces and interest groups grow， many different political forces have emerged in Indian society—often divided by religion， caste and region. Neither of the two national-level forces—the INC and the BJP—can rule alone， or will they form a coalition government with each other. Thus， they need to align with other small parties to form a governing coalition， and as a result， small parties， as the“vocal minority，” will have a greater influence on the policy making of the future Indian Government.

China policy

Judging from the current situation， chances are high that the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance could win the upcoming general elec- tion and Modi is likely to take the post of Indian prime minister. Indias China policy under the new government is expected to remain stable for the most part. However， fine-tuning of the relationship cannot be ruled out.

On the one hand， Indias overall China policy is not set for any big changes. In the past decade， China-India relations have forged ahead stably and become more mature. Even during the border standoff in 2013， the two countries remained calm and handled the incident properly. All the political parties of India recognize the importance of positive China-India relations and multidimensional cooperation. Thus， no matter which party wins the election， cooperation and stability will be the mainstay of bilateral relations.

On the other hand， as the BJP is widely known as a nationalist party， some potentially challenging changes in its China policy are foreseeable. However， we should note that as there are fewer political burdens on the BJP than on the INC when handling relations with China， breakthroughs on sensitive issues are possible. When BJP leader Atal Bihari vajpayee served as Indias prime minister a decade ago， though his administration conducted nuclear tests on the excuse of the “China threat，” New Delhi explicitly acknowledged that Tibet is an inalienable part of China for the first time.endprint