An Empirical Study of the Influence of Migrant Workers' Individual Decisions concerning＂Change from Rural Residents to Urban Residents＂in Chongqing City

Xiaoyang LI，Yunlei PENG *，Junbo LIU

1.College of Economics and Management，Southwest University，Chongqing400715，China；2.School of Economics and Resource Management，Beijing Normal University，Beijing 100875，China

1 Introduction

Household registration system is the sum of a series of political，economic and legal rules established for household management.Since the founding of New China，China’s household registration system has gradually evolved into an important means to maintain social order and achieve resource allocation and reallocation of benefits（Lu Yilong，2002）.As the urban-rural comprehensive reform experimental zone，Chongqing City has promoted the reform of household registration system since August2010.As of September 26，2012，the cumulative number of people becoming urban residents reached 3.455 million，however，a survey shows that 70%of rural migrant workers are unwilling to change the registered residence（Li Xiaohong，2013）.In China’s particular socioeconomic institutional arrangements，the＂change from rural residents to urban residents＂has become a hurdle that migrant workers must step over in the course of urbanization.The famous urban-rural transfer theory mainly includes Ranis-Fei model（Taylor，1969；1970），urban bias theory（Lipton，1977），Jorgenson model and Todaro model（Stark，Taylor，1989），cost-benefit theory（Sjaastad，1962），double gradient cross transfer mode（Kong Xiangzhi，2006），and random migration theory（Liu Chuanjiang，2008）.Among them，the famous Todaro model shows that farmers’decisions to migrate to city depend not only on the expected urban-rural income gap，but also on the the urban employment rate（Tan Chongtai，2008）.In fact，China’s urbanization process is different from the Western countries’synchronization process of urbanization and industrialization.During the development process of China’s urbanization，farmers’non-agricultural activities are first promoted and then farmers are driven to become urban residents so as to promote farmers’citizenship.In this special two-step transfer process，the institutional constraints regarding household registration system have become the most serious obstacle.The reform of household registration system should not be just simply＂a paper change＂，but a key means to break the household barriers and promote urbanization.In the main studies on the reform of household registration system，the Chinese scholars are mainly concerned about the urban-rural dual household registration structure as well as the path to the reform of household registration system.Liu Chuanjiang（2009）uses the concept＂double census registration wall＂to expound the invisible barrier of household registration system that household registration has become the social division system to deprive some people of social welfare.He Fei（2005）and Zhu Yu（2004）believe that in the urban-rural dual management system due to insufficient supply of public services，the dual household management reflects the state’s discriminative treatment and impedes population migration between urban and rural areas.Wang Taiyuan（2009）thinks that it is necessary to break the urban-rural dual structure，gradually reduce house-hold threshold，and restore the original role of household management.Peng Xizhe et al.（2007）insist that we should not remove the household registration threshold but use devious tactics to gradually peel off the welfare attached to the top of household registration.In the analysis of the factors influencing migrant workers’willingness to stay in the city and their decisions to change census register，Sheng Yinan（2009）maintains that migrant workers’individual factors and family factors have a great impact.Through the analysis，Wang Guixin（2011）finds that the urban social factors have a significant impact on migrant workers’willingness to stay in the city.The above domestic scholars have conducted fruitful systematic studies on the reform of household registration system from different levels，but in general，most of studies are the institutional change studies based on the angle of government.It is worthy of the further expansion on the study of factors influencing migrant workers’willingness to＂change from rural residents to urban residents＂.In view of this，with the migrant workers in Chongqing as research object，from the perspective of city integration，this paper uses SPSS19.0 as analytical tool to perform the statistical analysis and build Logistic regression equation model for the empirical research of factors influencing migrant workers’individual decisions to＂change from rural residents to urban residents＂，and puts forth the policy recommendations based on relevant conclusions.

2 Research ideas

2.1 Basic situation of the surveyFrom July to October，2012，the survey team selected the main city zone of Chongqing as the survey area，and the survey was carried out in Beibei District，Yubei District，Jiangbei District，Banan District and Shapingba District.A total of 700 questionnaires were handed out，and 573 valid questionnaires were obtained after excluding unqualified questionnaires，with validity rate reaching 81.86%.The survey results show that the proportion of male migrant workers interviewed is highest，reaching 63.2%；the married respondents account for 73.5%of the total samples；in terms of the age，the respondents aged between 36 and 45 account for 40.8%，the respondents aged between 18 and 25，between 26 and 35 account for 20.4%and 21.2%，respectively，the respondents aged between 46 and 60 account for15.3%，and the respondents aged below 18 or above 60 account for about1%；54.3%of the migrant workers interviewed have received the junior high school education，while less than 25%of migrant workers interviewed have received senior high school education and above；the respondents with personal monthly income of 1000－3000 yuan，account for 78.3%of the total sample size，while the respondents with monthly income of over 3000 yuan only account for 17%.

Table 1 The basic personal information of respondents

2.2 Research hypothesis and variable descriptionIn the current existing household registration management system，census register is the benchmark for redistribution of social welfare.The migrant workers’willingness to change the census register is primarily affected by the extent of urban integration and rural connection.Migrant workers’urban integration depends on their urbanization capacity and the rural connection also affects the extent of urban integration and final decisions to change census register.Therefore，migrant workers’willingness to＂change from rural residents to urban residents＂is set the dependent variable.Assuming the factors influencing migrant workers’individual decisions to＂change from rural residents to urban residents＂include urban employment，urban life and rural production and living.The urban employment includes three secondary variables（working time outside in one year，annual family income level，length of stay in city）.Assuming the longer the working time outside in one year，the higher the annual family income level，the shorter the length of stay in city，then the greater the willingness to＂change from rural residents to urban residents＂.Urban life includes five secondary variables（urban housing conditions，family’s move into city，participation in pension insurance，participation in medical insurance，participation in unemployment insurance）.Assuming the migrant workers with better urban housing conditions and whole family moving into city，having participated in pension insurance，medical insurance and unemployment insurance，are more willing to change from rural residents to urban residents.Rural production and living indicator includes two secondary variables（rural land contracting situation，rural housing construction time）.Assuming the longer the time of the construction of rural housing，the migrant workers with rural land having been transferred，are more likely to change from rural residents to urban residents.The specific variable description and value assignment can be shown in Table 2.

Table 2 Variable description and value assignment

3 Empirical analysis

3.1 Correlation analysisThe selected dependent variables are qualitative variables，so the Crosstabs analysis method in SPSS19.0 is used to analyze the correlation between the independent variables and migrant workers’willingness to＂change from rural residents to urban residents＂.The results are summarized in Table 3.

3.1.1 Crosstabs analysis of urban employment and migrant workers’willingness to＂change from rural residents to urban residents＂

Pearson chi-square value and progressive Sig（bilateral）in Table 3 show that working time outside in one year，annual family income level and length of stay in city，have a significant impact on migrant workers’willingness to＂change from rural residents to urban residents＂，and the linear combination of the three and migrant workers’willingness to＂change from rural residents to urban residents＂is also significant.

3.1.2 Crosstabs analysis of urban life and migrant workers’willingness to＂change from rural residents to urban residents＂

The Pearson chi-square and significant test data in Table 3 show that urban housing conditions，family’s move into city，participation in pension insurance，participation in medical insurance and participation in unemployment insurance，have a significant impact on migrant workers’willingness to＂change from rural residents to urban residents＂.Except the variable of participation in medical insurance，the other four variables all have a highly significant impact on migrant workers’willingness to＂change from rural residents to urban residents＂.And the linear combination of the five variables and migrant workers’willingness to＂change from rural residents to urban residents＂is significant.

3.1.3 Crosstabs analysis of rural production and living and migrant workers’willingness to＂change from rural residents to urban residents＂

The Pearson chi-square and significant test data in Table 3 show that rural land contracting situation and rural housing construction time have a significant impact on migrant workers’willingness to＂change from rural residents to urban residents＂.And the linear combination of the two factors and migrant workers’willingness to＂change from rural residents to urban residents＂is significant.

3.2 Econometric modelThrough the Crosstabs analysis of various independent variables and migrant workers’willingness to＂change from rural residents to urban residents＂，we understand the degree of impact of urban employment，urban life and rural production and living on migrant workers’willingness to＂change from rural residents to urban residents＂.To further understand the degree of influence from interaction between variables on migrant workers’willingness to＂change from rural residents to urban residents＂，we build the Logistic model for regression analysis of variables，in order to get a more accurate analysis.

Table 3 Correlation analysis between variables

The original equation of Logistic regression model is as follows：

Here we mainly consider the linear correlation of variables，so formula（1）can also be written as follows：

From equation（2），we get the Logistic regression model of migrant workers’willingness to＂change from rural residents to urban residents＂.

wherePis the probability of migrant workers’willingness to＂change from rural residents to urban residents＂（willing whenP＝1 and unwilling whenP＝0）；kis the number of factors that influence the probability；xi is independent variable i；αis the regression coefficient of constant；βkis the regression coefficient of independent variable；δiis the random disturbance term.

4 Measurement result analysis

Using SPSS19.0，we perform the Logistic regression analysis of relevant data，select the variable standard levelα＝0.05 and exclude the standard levelα＝0.10.Using Wald method，we select seven variables such as annual family income level，and exclude three variables（length of stay in city，participation in medical insurance，participation in unemployment insurance）.Working time outside in one year，family’s move into city，urban housing conditions，participation in pension insurance，rural land contracting situation，rural housing construction time，are significant at 1%confidence level；annual family income level is significant at 5%confidence level；length of stay in city，participation in medical insurance and participation in unemployment insurance，do not pass the test at 10%confidence level.The residual of regression model is 231.614，and degree of freedom is 7.By consulting the table，the corresponding Sig value（Pvalue）is 0.00，less than 0.05，indicating that under the 0.05 significance level，the regression equation passes the test，with statistical significance（See Table 4）.In Table 4，－2LL value is 548.853，and NagelkerkeR2reaches 0.447，indicating that the goodness of fit of model is not bad.The overall prediction accuracy rate of model is77.8%，indicating that the prediction effect of model is good.The specific Logistic model regression results are shown in Table 4.

Table 4 Logistic model regression results

5 Conclusions and recommendations

5.1 Conclusions

5.1.1 Urban employment has a significant impact on migrant workers’willingness to＂change from rural residents to urban residents＂

Working time outside in one year has a significant positive impact on migrant workers’willingness to＂change from rural residents to urban residents＂，that is，the longer the working time outside in one year，the greater the willingness to＂change from rural residents to urban residents＂，which is consistent with the previous hypothesis.Annual family income level has a significant positive impact on migrant workers’willingness to＂change from ru-ral residents to urban residents＂，that is，the higher the annual family income level，the greater the willingness to＂change from rural residents to urban residents＂，which is also consistent with the previous hypothesis.From the influencing factor，it is found that the factor of annual family income level has a limited impact on migrant workers’willingness to＂change from rural residents to urban residents＂，possibly because during consideration from the perspective of urban integration，migrant workers’decisions to＂change from rural residents to urban residents＂are deeply affected by other factors.Length of stay in city has a certain negative impact on migrant workers’willingness to＂change from rural residents to urban residents＂，but the impact is not significant，failing to pass T test，and this variable is not selected into equation.The greater the length of stay in city，the greater the unwillingness to＂change from rural residents to urban residents＂，which deviates from the previous hypothesis.It can be found from Table3 that the respondents with 5－10 years of stay in city are most likely to change the census register，because the shorter the length of stay in city，the lower the degree of urban integration，the weaker the urbanization capacity.

5.1.2 The city life status has a significant impact on migrant workers’willingness to＂change from rural residents to urban residents＂

Family’s move into city has a significant positive impact on migrant workers’willingness to＂change from rural residents to urban residents＂，which is consistent with the previous hypothesis.The family with all members moving into city has weak ties with rural areas，and the urban integration willingness is very strong，so they are more willing to be urbanized.Urban housing conditions have a significant positive impact on migrant workers’willingness to＂change from rural residents to urban residents＂，which is consistent with the previous hypothesis.With a fixed residence in the city，the urban integration will be easier and migrant workers are willing to become true city resident.Participation in pension insurance has a significant positive impact on migrant workers’willingness to＂change from rural residents to urban residents＂，which is consistent with the previous hypothesis.At present，there is a large difference in the expected return between pension insurance for urban workers or residents and＂new agricultural insurance＂in rural areas，and this difference in the expected return is the potential power to promote the urbanization of migrant workers.Participation in medical insurance has a certain negative impact on migrant workers’willingness to＂change from rural residents to urban residents＂，but this impact is not significant，which is inconsistent with the previous hypothesis.It does not pass T test in the regression process and the variable is not selected into the equation.It may be related to the low premium rates and higher reimbursement in the currently implemented new rural cooperative medical insurance.Participation in unemployment insurance has a small impact on migrant workers’willingness to＂change from rural residents to urban residents＂，possibly because there is a gap between previous hypothesis and reality.Unemployment insurance is a unique link in the urban social security system，and it can guarantee the basic living of urban residents under unemployment.This can dissipate the migrant workers’worries about employment instability and promote their citizenship.

5.1.3 Rural production and living have a significant impact on migrant workers’willingness to＂change from rural residents to urban residents＂

Rural land contracting situation has a significant positive impact on migrant workers’willingness to＂change from rural residents to urban residents＂，which is consistent with the previous hypothesis.For the migrant workers who still cultivate the rural contracted land by themselves，they are deeply attached to land，and the urban integration is not deep.The contracted land which is not cultivated by migrant workers is divided into two categories：one is the land given to relatives and friends for planting，involving too many rural social relationships，and the other one is the land transferred for commission，involving weak rural connections.Thus，for the migrant workers whose land has been transferred，the willingness to become urban residents is stronger.Rural housing construction time has a significant positive impact on migrant workers’willingness to＂change from rural residents to urban residents＂，which is consistent with the previous hypothesis.The migrant workers who built rural houses recently will not make quick individual decisions to＂change from rural residents to urban residents＂out of sunk cost considerations.

5.2 Recommendations

5.2.1 Increasing investment in affordable housing construction.Housing stability is built on employment stability.In the context of current robust employment policy for migrant workers in Chongqing City，ensuring the migrant workers’residential stability in city is particularly important.It is necessary to increase investment in affordable housing to ensure the migrant workers’housing stability and living conditions in city and promote migrant workers to live together.In the meantime，it is necessary to think about the housing area and educational resources，transportation，industrial parks and other factors，to create more favorable conditions for migrant workers to live.By matching the educational resources and housing area，the migrant workers’children can get fair opportunity.In view of the shortage of finance for affordable housing construction，the government can choose to unite with enterprises.The enterprises raise part of the funds，choose the construction area and get priority in the allocation of housing for outstanding migrant workers so that the workers conscientiously work and the enterprises feel at ease to provide human capital investment.

5.2.2 Including the migrant workers into urban housing provident fund system and giving priority to distribution rights.Similar to the significance of rural house and contracted land for farmers，the urban housing property rights are the accumulation of wealth in the city for migrant workers.Government should promptly include the migrant workers changing the census register into urban housing provident fund system，and the government and businesses share some of the costs of migrant workers living in cities.For the migrant workers having changed from rural residents to urban residents，it is necessary to give them the purchase privilege and preferential prices after they have rent the affordable houses for a certain time.In the allocation of affordable housing，the migrant workers living with the elderly can enjoy preferential allocation rights and purchase rights.On the one hand，the rural elderly get the deserved support and the social piety is carried forward；on the other hand，the families of migrant workers are promoted to move into the city，and the transfer of rural contracted land and reclamation of idle homestead are also promoted.

5.2.3 Improving the land elasticity exit mechanism and creating a harmonious employment environment.As previously described，the economic interests included in rural contracted land and homestead affect migrant workers’decisions to change census register.The land elasticity exit mechanism implemented in Jiulongpo District of Chongqing City in 2007 is an ideal model.Although the implementation of this mechanism is not continued due to the lack of supply of urban public infrastructure services and too much financial pressure，it is still necessary to improve elastic land exit to transform migrant workers’rural wealth into urban wealth in order to reduce their cost of living in the city and improve the happiness.At the same time，the small town construction must not be ignored，and it is necessary to develop township enterprises or agricultural leading enterprises to create employment opportunities.The small towns here are not necessarily the small towns formed due to industrial agglomeration，and they can be the densely populated small towns.Through rural reconstruction，there is a need to promote farmers’centralized residence.On the one hand，it is conducive to the homestead reclamation and land transfer；on the other hand，it is conducive to the development of new nonfarm economy.

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