LOOMING SOLAR TRADE WAR？

By Deng Yaqing

LOOMING SOLAR TRADE WAR？

By Deng Yaqing

The EU’s anti-dumping investigation casts a gloom y shadow over China’s PV industry

V isitors to the New City District of Baoding, north China’s Hebei Province, are always captivated by a grand building, whose mazarine reflection on its glass curtain walls were glistening w ith mysterious luster. Ablaze w ith lights, the building was completely powered by solar energy, which was generated by the row upon row of PV cells laid on the titan’s surface.

The building is Power Valley Jin jiang International Hotel, a landmark building in the Baoding High-tech Industrial Development Zone, built by Yingli Green Energy Holding Co. Ltd., the frontrunner in the photovoltaic (PV) industry. From 2005 to 2008, Yingli experienced a period of explosive expansion w ith a grow th rate of 1,260.18 percent, and is the industry’s top player.

But the solar pow er business in China is under duress. M iao Liansheng, CEO of Yingli Green Energy and the fi rst man to ring the opening bell in the New York Stock Exchange w ithout wearing a tie,creased his forehead on September 6 when the European Comm ission launched an investigation into the suspected dumping of solar panels and key components by Chinese producers. The investigation into the biggest import sector ever targeted by the European Comm ission stems from a complaint by a group of European solar companies, led by Germany’s SolarWorld.

“It’s totally groundless,” Yingli said in its statement follow ing the EU’s announcement. How ever,Yingli should cooperate w ith the European Commission’s investigation and at the same time undergo a trans

formation in its business model, said Liang Tian, Director of Public Relations for Yingli Green Energy. The company w ill shift from simply making PV modules to expanding its participation into the design, development and operation of PV power stations as well as providing financial lease services and solar power generation solutions. Furthermore,Yingli plans to enhance its marketing capabilities and will team up with other mutually interested enterprises.

CHECKING UP: A worker exam ines silicon ingots in the Hainan m anufacturing base o f Ying li Green Energy Ho ld ing Co. Ltd.

It’s not the first time the Chinese solar industry has hit a trade barrier. On November 9, 2011, the U.S. Department of Commerce started its anti-dumping and countervailing duty investigation against Chinese solar products. In May, the United States decided to impose tariffs ranging from 31.14 percent to 249.96 percent on PV products imported from China. The U.S. market is now off lim its to Chinese solar cell makers.

“Every year, roughly 70 percent of the solar panels and key components made in China go to the EU market,” said Liang. “W ith the 10-percent loss from the U.S. market, what we are confronting now is whether China’s PV industry can survive.”

Reac tions

Responding to the EU’s statement on September 6 that it w ill decide whether penalties should be imposed if the investigation finds Chinese m akers w ere dum ping, China’s M inistry of Commerce (MOFCOM)quickly issued a response, saying that it “deep ly regrets” the EU’s course of action.

MOFCOM spokesman Shen Danyang said that restricting Chinese PV battery products would harm both sides and damage the healthy development of the global PV industry and clean energy.

On September 11, the Chinese Government sent a delegation led by Chong Quan, deputy representative for China’s international trade talks, to meet w ith relevant government departments in Germany and France, as well as the European Comm ission.

In negotiating w ith Jean-Luc Demarty, the European Commission’s Director General for Trade, Chong said that in the face of a severe global economic slowdown “both of us will become losers if a trade war occurs.”

In fact, European enterprises,which hold 50 percent of the silicon market in China, now control both ends of the PV industrial chain—raw materials, manufacturing equipment and the installation of PV power system—while China dominates the m iddle part of the chain—the production of solar cells.

Chong argued the EU should pay attention not only to trade issues regarding China’s solar panels but also to the more than 200,000 jobs related to the installation of PV power systems.After all, if the EU levies high tariffs, the global solar industry as a whole w ill suffer a heavy blow.

During the 15th China-EU Summ it held in Brussels on September 20, Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao urged the EU to recognize China’s full market economy status and expressed his hope the dispute would be re-solved through ongoing dialogue, as the EU’s launch of the anti-dumping investigation had triggered strong reactions in China and also raised concerns among EU businesses.

Solar strength

In the past five years, China’s PV industry has undergone rapid capacity expansion, partly due to the boom in installation of solar panels in Europe as the EU looks to increase its share of renewable energy, such as solar and w ind,to 20 percent. In 2011, China exported $20.4 billion of PV products to the EU, accounting for 73 percent of its total export volume, according to statistics from the MOFCOM.

At present, China occupies 60 percent of the global polycrystalline silicon market, 70 percent of the polycrystalline silicon panel market and 70 percent of the solar module market. The Chinese Government included renewable energy in its development plan for strategic emerging industries and it is one of the few industries worldwide in which China is a leader.

“Three factors contribute to the alleged‘dumping price’ by Chinese solar cell makers—the price cut for raw materials, lower production costs and oversupply,” said Liang.“The price of silicon dropped from $400-500 per kg to $20 per kg in recent years.”

Given lower labor costs in China, it seems irrational to impose punitive actions on Chinese manufacturers. Moreover, lower solar panel prices w ill help downstream enterprises cut costs and make solar power more affordable. That’s why the Association for Applied Solar Energy has called on the European Comm ission to uphold free trade in order to secure jobs and support industry grow th.

Two fatal weaknesses make China’s PV industry vulnerable to external factors.Chinese solar cell makers export nearly 90 percent of their products to other countries,so every little move from the outside w ill put Chinese makers on tenterhooks. Over dependence, in many cases, is dangerous. In addition, Chinese enterprises should prioritize developing core technology rather than act as low-priced module producers. Currently,core technologies regarding the purification of polycrystalline silicon and the manufacturing of PV equipment are dominated by countries like the United States, Norway, Germany and Japan.

“Solar power w ill be an indispensable energy resource in the near future, and it also may be the engine that spurs a third industrial revolution,” said Liang. “As China is gradually taking a predom inant position in the global PV industry, the EU’s anti-dumping investigation may ruin a promising future.”