国际科技信息

国际科技信息

World Population To Pass 7 Billion On October 31

The world's population is projected to pass 7 billion on October 31 as it heads toward 10 billion or more by the end of the century, a new U.N. report said on Tuesday.

The report also predicted that the global population would be higher by midcentury than its last edition forecast two years ago, reaching 9.31 billion instead of 9.15 billion. It attributed this to fewer deaths as well as more births than it had anticipated.

The October date for reaching the 7 billion mark is based on calculations from current trends and Hania Zlotnik, head of the U.N. economic department's population division, said it should be taken "with a grain of salt."

Nevertheless, the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) announced it would start a seven-day countdown on October 24 that would include a series of events. The world reached 6 billion people in 1998 and was 6.89 on July 1.

The report, "2010 Revision of World Population Prospects," projected there would be 10.1 billion people on the planet by 2100, the first time it has looked that far ahead. But it said that if global fertility was just half a child more per woman than it expected, that figure could be almost 16 billion.

U.N. officials said their figures were based on the assumption that fertility would taper off during the century.

But Zlotnik told a news conference, "Stabilization of the population doesn't seem to us as very probable at this moment."

Nations face a delicate balance between high fertility and booming populations, which strain food and other resources, and low fertility, which leads to aging populations and stress on social services, as some European states are already finding.

"All countries are going to age if their populations are not to explode even more than they are exploding now," Zlotnik said.

Another U.N. official,

地球人口突破70亿大关

Gerhard Heilig, told the news conference that China's population, currently about 1.34 billion, would drop back below 1 billion by 2100. Russia's population would fall from 143 million now to 126 million by 2050 and 111 million in 2100, he said.

But UNFPA chief Babatunde Osotimehin said the latest global figures "underscore the urgent need to provide safe and effective family planning to the 215 million women who lack it," a point echoed by pro-birth control advocacy groups.

Suzanne Ehlers, president of Washington-based Population Action International, called the new projections "a wakeup call for governments to fulfill the global demand for contraception."

法国国家人口研究所的最新研究报告显示，地球人口自1800年以来已经增长7倍，现在已经突破70亿大关。估计到下世纪初，地球人口能够稳定在90亿到100亿左右。

该研究报告指出，1999年地球人口超过60亿，而2011年这个数字已经超过70亿，在短短十多年内地球人口增加了10亿。虽然目前地球人口增长幅度逐渐趋缓，但趋缓的程度十分有限，据估计，2025年时地球人口将达到80亿。

联合国预测本世纪末地球人口即可达到90亿到100亿，而法国国家人口研究所的报告稍显乐观，认为直到2100年地球人口才会达到90亿至100亿。

人口之所以快速增长，主要是因为医疗卫生条件的改善，特别是婴儿死亡率的大大降低。19世纪初时人类的平均寿命仅为25岁，而今天人类平均寿命已达到68岁。从各大洲的情况看，亚洲人口占世界人口的比例超过60%，而非洲目前虽然只有10亿人口，但是由于这一地区的生育率较高，到本世纪末，非洲将经历一个人口急速增长阶段，预计到2100年，仅非洲大陆人口将达到36亿。

Telescope to spot aliens: World's largest eye on the sky to join quest for signs of ET

Housed in a dome almost the size of Big Ben and containing a mirror nearly half the length of a football pitch, it wasn’t exactly rocket science for astronomers to find a name for this telescope.

And, sure enough, they came up with the European Extremely Large Telescope —just about the only routine thing about the world’s largest and most powerful‘eye on the sky’.

Astronomers reckon it may finally shed light on whether there really is life somewhere out there by helping them find Earth-like rocky worlds that are home to other beings.

And British scientists might be among the first to find out — as their work is crucial to the project.

Key instruments for the telescope will be developed thanks to £3.5million funding from the Science and Technology Facilities Council.

The device in the Atacama Desert, Chile, will be built in a dome that covers an area the size of a stadium.

It has a sensitivity to visible and infrared light tens of times greater than any previous telescope, and is designed to help astronomers peer back to the first galaxies 14billion years ago.

This could unlock secrets of dark matter and dark energy — little-understood forces in space — to help explain how the universe evolved, according to the plans.

The British instruments are being developed by the universities of Durham and Oxford, with the UK Astronomy Technology Centre and Rutherford Appleton Laboratory.

They will include spectrometers to analyse the light received from space, as well as gadgets to help remove blurring distortions caused by the Earth’s atmosphere, a process known as adaptive optics.

This will produce pictures 15 times sharper than those taken by the Hubble space telescope, which has been in orbit since 1990.

Professor Isobel Hook, E-ELT project scientist at the University of Oxford, said: ‘This new financial commitment from the STFC means that UK astronomers will have access to the earliest scientific results from this revolutionary telescope — an exciting prospect.’

It is believed the telescope will bring hundreds of millions of pounds of benefits to British companies involved in building it.

They include a consortium based at the OpTIC Technium in North Wales, which is developing prototypes for the huge segments needed to make the 43-yard mirror.

Engineers will have to blast the top off Chile’s 9,900ft Cerro Armazones mountain peak to build the telescope if final approval is given by the European Southern Observatory’s 15 international partners in December. It is hoped the observatory will be operating by 2020.

The E-ELT will be the latest tool to join observatories operated in Chile by Europe.

The Atacama is a favoured location because the dryness and clarity of the air provide exceptional observing conditions.

Established telescopes include the Atacama Large Millimeter Array, a set of dishes that forms the highest observatory in the world at 16,000ft.

世界最大望远镜将在智利建造 或能助寻找外星人

欧洲南方天文台将在智利阿塔卡玛沙漠建造世界最大的天文望远镜。该望远镜镜片直径是一座足球场长度的一半，它对可见光和红外线的灵敏度将是现存望远镜的十倍。天文学家希望，这座望远镜能帮助人们破解有助于解释宇宙演化的暗物质秘密，甚至能探测到外星人的行踪。

这座世界上最大望远镜算是目前最强大的“天空之眼”了。牛津大学教授伊索贝尔·胡克表示：“英国的天文学家将获得最新的天文科研成果，这是一项令人激动的建造计划。”

天文望远镜的选址需要晴天数高、水气量少、空气稳定（天文上称为视相度佳）；此外还必须考虑建造、运作与维修的成本，以及和其它主要望远镜和仪器进行联合观测的方便性。广袤的阿塔卡玛沙漠是全世界最干燥、光害最稀少的地点之一，因此是全球最佳的天文观测点之一。据悉，工程师们将炸掉阿塔卡玛沙漠中海拔3017米高的赛罗阿玛逊斯山的顶部，在这里安放望远镜。如果建设顺利，超大望远镜将在2020年前投入使用。

Italy scientists on trial over L'Aquila earthquake

The trial of six Italian scientists and a former government official for manslaughter over the 2009 earthquake in L'Aquila has opened in the city.

The 6.3 magnitude quake devastated the city and killed 309 people.

Prosecutors allege the defendants gave a falsely reassuring statement before the quake after studying hundreds of tremors that had shaken the city.

The defence argues that there is no way to predict major earthquakes even in a seismically active area.

The prosecutors accuse the seven of "negligence and imprudence... of having provided an approximate, generic and ineffective assessment of seismic activity risks as well as incomplete, imprecise and contradictory information".

As the trial opened, L'Aquila prosecutor Alfredo Rossini told reporters: "We simply want justice."

The defendants face up to 15 years in jail. Lawyers for civil plaintiffs - who include the local council - are seeking damages of 50m euros (£45m). The civil portion of the case will be heard alongside the criminal case.

Only one of the seven defendants - who include some of Italy's most distinguished geophysicists and members of the country's civil protection agency - was present on the opening day of the trial, which has now been adjourned until 1 October.

"I thought it was important to be here because this is my land, and I also wanted to underline the professionalism and the quality of the other public officials," said Bernardo De Bernardinis, former vicepresident of the Civil Protection Agency's technical department.

"I am from Abruzzo and I owe it to the people of this area."

It can talk, see, and weave through traffc on its own: 'Car of the future' controlled entirely by computer hits the roads

It can talk, see, drive and no longer needs a human being to control it by remote.

Scientists have unveiled a 'car of the future' which weaves through traffic on its own and is completely computer-controlled.

The vehicle has even been allowed on to public roads, after being tested by researchers from Berlin's Free University around the German capital.

The vehicle maneuvers through traffic on its own using a sophisticated combination of devices, including a computer, electronics and a precision satellite navigation system in the trunk, a camera in the front, and laser scanners on the roof and around the front and rear bumpers.

Raul Rojas, the head of the university's research group for artificial intelligence, said: 'The vehicle can recognize other cars on the road, pedestrians, buildings and trees up to 70 meters (yards) around it and even see if the traffic lights ahead are red or green and react accordingly.

'In fact, the car's recognition and reaction to its environment is much faster than a human being's reaction.'

The scientists have worked on their research car, a Volkswagen Passat worth 400,000 euros ($551,800) with lots of built-in special technology, for four years.

Several other groups have also been working on such technology recently, notably Google, which has been testing a robotic Toyota Prius in Nevada.

Ferdinand Dudenhoeffer, a professor for automotive economics at the University of Duisburg-Essen, said: 'There's a big trend for completely computer-controlled cars— many companies and research centers in several countries are working on it and it is hard to say, who's got the most-developed vehicle at the moment.'

Dudenhoeffer estimated that with the technology advances, it could only take another decade for the fully automatic cars to start becoming available for consumers.

'Even today's cars are often partially computercontrolled, for example when it comes to parking or emergency brakes.'

However, he said, that besides the technological issues, the legal challenges would be another issue that needed to be regulated: 'Who will be responsible when there's an accident — the owner or the passenger of the computer-controlled car or the company that produced it?'

'However, all in all, one can definitely say that computer-controlled cares will be much safer than human drivers,' Dudenhoeffer said.

'Especially if you keep in mind that most of today's accidents are caused by human error.'

a special permit from the city's security and safety controllers in June to use it in regular traffic —under the condition that a safety driver sits behind the steering wheel, even if he doesn't touch anything — not the steering wheel, gas pedals nor brakes.

On a special testing ground, the team has also been allowed to let the car run without anyone on board.

'This kind of technology is the future of mobility,' Rojas said, who had a more conservative estimate than Dudenhoeffer, saying that it may be 30 to 40 years before they become available to the average consumer.

The key to the automobile's intelligence is in the way the computer program runs.

'In the beginning we had trouble with the robotic driving style of the car,' said Rojas. 'But we've worked on the programming and now its driving style is as smooth as a human being.'

Rojas estimates that once the technology — specifically the sensors — gets less expensive, such cars will eventually conquer the roads.

'It is similar to the beginnings of the computers: 40 years ago, only research labs could afford computers, now everybody is walking around with a computer in his pocket.'

Ideally, the car will respond to orders by remote control, for example on an iPad or an iPhone. With a click or a touch, the passenger can call the car to his personal location and then order the car to drop him off at his desired destination.

'This kind of car is actually perfect for car sharing,' said Rojas. 'There will be no more need for owning a car — once the automobile has dropped off its passenger it will drive on to the next passenger.'

德国成功测试全自动汽车 无人驾驶穿行自如

从前只有在影视作品中才能见到的全自动汽车已经成为现实。据英国《每日邮报》9月20日报道，德国科学家近日刚刚在柏林的街道上试验了一款完全由电脑控制的汽车，并且取得了成功。

德国首都柏林的大街上近日出现了一辆不寻常的大众帕萨特。从表面上看，它与路上的其他车辆没有任何差异，但仔细观察你就会发现，这辆车没有驾驶员，而是完全由电脑控制的。

这辆被认为是“汽车未来发展方向”的无人驾驶汽车出自柏林自由大学的研究人员之手。它在柏林的大街小巷中自如穿行，完全与其他汽车一样。柏林自由大学的研究小组花了整整4年的时间对一辆价值40万欧元（348.7万元人民币）的普通帕萨特进行了彻底的改造，不仅在车厢中安装了电脑、电子设备和精密卫星导航系统，还在车前部、车顶和前后保险杠分别安装了摄像机和激光扫描设备。

柏林自由大学人工智能研究小组的负责人劳尔•罗雅斯接受采访时表示：“这辆车可以自动识别70米之内的其他车辆、行人、建筑和树木，还可以分辨出交通指示灯的颜色，并相应地作出反应。事实上，这辆车辨别环境和作出反应的速度比人更快。”

包括谷歌在内的其他企业和机构也在积极开发电脑控制汽车的技术。杜伊斯堡-埃森大学的教授费迪南德·杜登霍夫认为：“其实现在人们驾驶的汽车的某些功能已经由电脑控制了……而全电脑控制汽车是一个大趋势，很多国家的公司和研发机构都在进行这方面的研究。目前还很难判断谁的技术更先进。”他预计照目前的速度发展下去，全自动汽车十年内就可以投放市场，但更重要的是法律方面的问题：“出了事故谁负责——车主？乘客？还是制造全自动汽车的公司？”不过杜登霍夫教授认为，电脑控制的车辆总体上比有人驾驶的车辆更为安全，毕竟目前大多数的交通事故是由人为因素引起的。

罗雅斯对自动汽车市场前景的预期持谨慎态度。他认为，随着控制技术和感应元件价格的下降，全电脑控制汽车将在未来30到40年中与普通消费者见面，“就像是电脑逐渐普及那样”。罗雅斯教授预计，全电脑控制汽车将能实现远程控制功能，即使用者只需轻敲一下iPhone或者iPad屏幕，汽车就能赶到使用者所在位置，为其提供服务。“这种无人驾驶车其实最适合大家共用。汽车把一个乘客送到指定地点之后还可以去接另外一个乘客，这样一来就没必要买私家车了。”

意大利数名科学家因未警告地震出庭受审

6名意大利科学家和1名前政府官员因2009年拉奎拉地震被控“误杀”罪名，定于9月20日出庭受审。

2009年，拉奎拉发生里氏6.3级地震，309人在地震中死亡。

检控官称，在研究了拉奎拉数以百计的地震资料后，几名被告（6名科学家、1名前政府官员）在地震前声称未来不会发生地震。被告表示，即使在地震活动频繁的地区，也没有可能预测大地震是否即将发生。

这一案件引起了科学界的关注。逾5000名科学家联名致函意大利总统纳波利塔诺，表示对几名被告的支持。

据悉，这七名被告均为意大利政府组建的一个地震评估小组的成员。在拉奎拉大地震发生前，意大利当局要求他们对地震发生的可能性进行评估。

这几名被告当时曾向公众发表声明，让大家放心；但该声明同时表示，几乎没有可能对是否将发生大地震进行预测。

不过，他们建议当局加强采取应对地震的措施，包括强化建筑标准等。

英国广播公司记者威利在罗马说，由于这几名被告发表了上述声明，2009年地震发生当晚，很多意大利人都在家中睡觉，地震发生后，不少人来不及逃走因而遇难；那些没有理会声明，坚持留在室外过夜的人则大多幸存下来。

另据报道，拉奎拉地区的民众在地震发生前几个月曾感受到地面的轻微震动。这7名被告被指控“向当地民众传递了不准确、不完全以及错误的信息，未能对地震的发生提出警告”。

据悉，一旦被裁定有罪，这7名被告将面临最长15年监禁，并支付高达3000万美元的赔偿金。

Nitrate Levels Rising in Northwestern Pacifc Ocean

Changes in the ratio of nitrate to phosphorus in the oceans off the coasts of Korea and Japan caused by atmospheric and riverine pollutants may influence the makeup of marine plants and influence marine ecology, according to researchers from Korea and the U. S.

"Normally in a marine environment nitrate is the limiting factor, but increased nitrate in the ocean can spur growth and create a situation where phosphorus becomes the nutrient in short supply," says Raymond G. Najjar, professor of oceanography, Penn State. "This change in nutrients could favor organisms that are better suited for high nitrate and low phosphorus."

According to the researchers, the effects of anthropogenic nitrate pollution from the air have been shown to be significant in local lakes, streams and estuaries in Norway, Sweden and the U.S.

"This is the first evidence of increases in nitrate in ocean waters not in an enclosed estuary like the Chesapeake Bay," said Najjar. "These are large, very deep bodies of water and it is surprising to see increased nitrate in these large seas."

Najjar and his Korean colleagues, Kitack Lee, professor, and Tae-Wook Kim, graduate student, School of Environmental Science and Engineering, Pohang University of Science and Technology; Hee-Dong Jeong, National Fisheries Research and Development Institute; and Hae Jun Jeong, professor, School of Earth and Environmental Science, Seoul National University, studied trends in nitrate and phosphate in the coastal waters of Korea and Japan since the 1980s. They also compared the amount of nitrogen deposited from the air between 2002 and 2008 for Korea and Japan with the amounts of nitrate in the water during that same time period to show that the increased levels in the water are directly correlated to an increase in human-generated atmospheric nitrogen.

The area studied included the Yellow Sea, the Sea of Japan and the East China Sea. The researchers found that the phosphorus levels in the ocean water remained the same through time.

"The abundance of nitrogen relative to phosphorus in northeastern Asian marginal seas has increased significantly since 1980," the researchers report in the Sepembert 23 online edition of Science Express. "Anthropogenic atmospheric nitrogen deposition has narrowed the deficiency of nitrogen relative to phosphorus across the study area and has even resulted in a nitrogen surplus in the East China Sea, Yellow Sea and East Sea, commencing in the mid-1990s."

The other source of nitrate into the oceans is from runoff from industry and agriculture that reaches the seas via rivers. In most cases, this nitrogen is quickly diluted.

"In areas located downstream of the Changjian River plume, contributions from both anthropogenic atmospheric nitrogen and riverine nitrogen fluxes appeared to be of equal importance in governing trends in seawater nitrate," the researchers report.

The researchers also looked at the area in the North Pacific on the south and east of Japan, but while nitrate in these waters did increase slightly, the increase was not significant except close to the Japanese coast. The highest level of increase seen was in the Yellow Sea east of China, where the Changjian River enters the sea. Other areas of significantly increased nitrates include the area east of the Korean peninsula and an area in the north of Japan south of Sapporo.

The researchers suggest that their results have broader applicability. "The observed trends may be extrapolated to the coastal seas of the North American Atlantic Ocean and the North, Baltic and Mediterranean Seas, which have received ever-increasing amounts of anthropogenic atmospheric nitrate deposition and riverborne nitrate, comparable to those absorbed by coastal and marginal seas of the northwestern Pacific Ocean."

NASA, the Korea National Research Foundation and the Korea Meteorological Administration Research and Development Program supported this work.

Panasonic to unveil communication assistance, hair-washing robots

Panasonic Corp on Monday announced the development of an innovative communication assistance robot named HOSPI-Rimo and new models of its Hair-Washing Robot and RoboticBed. These robots are designed to support people who need assistance to lead safe, comfortable and pleasant lives. Panasonic will showcase prototypes of these three robots at the 38th International Home Care & Rehabilitation Exhibition (H.C.R.2011) to be held Oct 5-7 at the Tokyo Big Site.

HOSPI-Rimo serves as an intermediary to enable comfortable communication between people who are bed ridden or have limited mobility to communicate with other people, for example, their attending doctor in a separate room in the hospital or friends who live far away, as if they were interacting face to face. Panasonic developed HOSPI automatic medication delivery robot, which is used in hospitals in Japan and other countries. HOSPI-Rimo employs HOSPI’s autonomous mobility technology and high-definition visual communications technology.

The new Hair-Washing Robot can complete the entire process of hair washing automatically, from wetting to shampooing, rinsing, conditioning and drying. When the first model was unveiled at the same exhibition last year, it received great response, including requests for additional functions and commercialization. The new model features washing arms with more fingers and improved mechanics than the previous model to give more comfortable washing experience.

RoboticBed, an electric bed transformable into an electric wheelchair and vice versa, also attracted much interest, including commercialization, when it was first introduced at H.C.R. 2009. Since then, Panasonic has made constant improvements by incorporating requests from both caregivers and recipients, as well as by finding solutions for practical and safety issues identified through its activities under the Project for Practical Applications of Service Robots coordinated by NEDO (New Energy and Industrial Technology Development Organization), an independent Japanese administrative agency. Panasonic has been developing safety technologies and guidelines under the project.

The Robotic Canopy, introduced together with the RoboticBed, also received a number of requests, including easier installation and more user-friendly way of communication. These requests have led the company to develop the new communication assistance robot, HOSPI-Rimo.

Combining its expertise in robotics and information technology, Panasonic aims to meet the needs of both of those who give and those who receive care by offering robots as well as robot system solutions that provide total support through collaboration between robots and humans.