Climate Talks Lack Weight

By WANG RUIBIN

Climate Talks Lack Weight

By WANG RUIBIN

WARMING WOES: Ice sculptors work on a polar bear sculpture in Sydney on June 3 during an event aimed at raising public awareness of global warming

Countries argue over climate issues holding little hope for the Durban climate change conference later this year

Representatives from around the world have been gathering in Bonn, Germany, for a 12-day UN climate change conference from June 6 to 17. But given the difficulties in getting the countries to reach agreement, the talks may end up yielding few, if any, results.

Shortly before the conference, the International Energy Agency released a report saying energy-related carbon dioxide emissions increased to hit a record high of 30.6 billion tons in 2010. These emissions make it impossible to keep temperature increases below 2 degrees Celsius by 2020, a target set by the 2009 Copenhagen Accord.

In May, data from an observatory at the Mauna Loa Volcano in Hawaii showed the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere rose to 395 parts per million, a new high. The observatory has the earliest continuous records and analysis of this fi gure. In 1957, when data collection at the facility started, the fi gure was only 315 parts per million.

Kyoto

The Kyoto Protocol is the only legally binding document that the international community has reached in the process of tackling climate change. Next year is the end of its first commitment period (2008-12). But countries such as Japan, Canada, Russia and the United States have refused to renew it,arguing the protocol should be replaced with a new one.

Developing countries, still, continue to view it as the basis of international negotiations and cooperation on climate change.Abandoning the Kyoto Protocol, they agree,will set back climate talks and measures aimed at addressing climate change.

Whether the Bonn conference or the climate change conference in Durban, South Africa, later this year can save the Kyoto Protocol is still in question. Maybe we can do nothing but watch it be abandoned. If so, the principle of “common but differenti-ated responsibilities” will be abandoned with it. Calls for developed countries to ful fi ll quanti fi ed emissions reduction targets and developing countries to take voluntary emissions reduction actions, which were reaf fi rmed by the 2010 Cancun Agreements,will also be rendered invalid.

If this happens, the international community will no longer have any legally binding regulations on emissions reduction.Greenhouse gases will then be able to be emitted without punishment, bringing the future of this planet into question.

Financing

Indeed, the Cancun conference at the end of last year gave people hope, prompting many to develop high expectations for the upcoming Durban conference. The Cancun Agreements set up a Green Climate Fund,while calling for measures to improve technology transfer mechanisms and enhance developing countries’ ability to adapt to climate change.

But efforts to launch the Green Climate Fund have met difficulties due to disagreements on the membership of the transitional committee for the design of the fund and the World Bank’s quali fi cation as a trustee.Many people expected the Bonn conference to push developed countries to honor their commitments and bring the Cancun Agreements into practice, only to fi nd themselves disappointed.

At the 2009 Copenhagen conference, developed countries promised to give $30 billion from 2010 to 2012 to help poor countries handle climate change. So far, only $12 billion has been given. But of this $12 billion, much was faked by changing the name of existing assistance funds, said a World Resources Institute report. Let’s not forget the$100 billion a year by 2020 that was promised to the least developed countries and developing countries to enhance their abilities to tackle climate change and realize green development.

Differences

During the first round of negotiations this year, held in Bangkok in April, signs of a lack of motivation for international climate talks were evident. Participating parties argued on almost every issue, from emissions reduction targets to assistance funds.

Like previous conferences, the Ad Hoc Working Group on Long-Term Cooperative Action Under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change managed to come up with an agreement on its 2011 agenda at the last minute, paving the way for the Bonn conference.

But differences remain. On topics like the future of the Kyoto Protocol, debate between developed and developing countries is fi erce. There’s no sign of compromise in sight. Major negotiating parties also lack motivation to establish a new international climate cooperation mechanism.

Although the United States is not a party to the Kyoto Protocol, it has always played an important role in international cooperation on climate change. At the 2007 UN climate change conference in Bali,Indonesia, U.S. support at the last minute ensured the passage of the Bali Action Plan. Again, at the Copenhagen conference two years later, the United States played a dramatic role in helping forge the Copenhagen Accord. At the Cancun conference last year, the United States reached an understanding with other major parties.They deliberately avoided arguing on issues where there were great differences and thus reached the Cancun Agreements. But given the stagnation of the U.S. economy,President Barack Obama may postpone efforts to address his ambitions on climate change to a possible second term as his fi rst term draws to an end.

CLIMATE CONUNDRUM: Representatives attend the UN climate change conference in Bonn on June 7

After its frustration at the Copenhagen conference, the EU’s interest in promoting international cooperation on coping with climate change sharply declined. The sweeping global financial crisis and economic recession have also played a hand in changing the EU’s negotiation behavior. Since some EU members are caught in national debt crises,they are under pressure to adjust their climate policies.

The European Parliament passed an energy and climate change package in 2008.The package displayed its image as a pioneer in tackling climate change, but could not save its weakening status in the negotiations.At the Bonn conference, the EU has been unsure about its stance on the Kyoto Protocol,which it once promoted.

China, India, Brazil and South Africa,known as BASIC countries, have presented a more distinctive image as a new force in international climate change talks. The four countries held their seventh ministerial meeting on climate change in Durban on May 28-29, where they exchanged information and coordinated positions before the Bonn conference.

Although BASIC countries stress unity among all developing countries, differences within this huge developing camp are already apparent. It becomes more difficult for them to strike a balance with developed countries as well as other developing countries. Developed countries say BASIC countries are responsible for two thirds of the current rise in greenhouse gas emissions, and they will not pay for this. Meanwhile, small island countries, the least developed countries and African countries do not think BASIC countries can represent their interests.

After Bonn, differences on the negotiating texts being prepared for Durban will remain. As the host country, South Africa will try its best to push for positive results. It is expected to adopt a more fl exible and inclusive manner in the negotiations and build a bridge between developed countries and developing countries. But it is unrealistic to expect the Durban conference to adopt a comprehensive,balanced and legally binding political treaty.

The Kyoto Protocol may come to an end amid delays of negotiating parties. Major differences between developed and developing countries are also unlikely to be narrowed in the near future. Hopefully, the Durban conference will make progress on the Green Climate Fund and other speci fi c issues, which have been discussed over and over and witnessed an overall consensus.

The author is deputy director of the Department for World Economy and Development of the China Institute of International Studies