Talks Instead of Threats

By YU YAN

Talks Instead of Threats

By YU YAN

Restraint and discussion are required to relieve tensions on the Korean Peninsula

Military measures will not help to reach a solution to disputes on the Korean Peninsula, and will only make the situation worse. All related parties, especially the United States,should exercise restraint and advocate sixparty talks, analysts said.

It is unlikely military threats from the United States, Japan and South Korea will force North Korea to surrender, said Shi Yuanhua, Director of the Center for Korean Studies at Fudan University in Shanghai.Only a soft-landing tactic, like an emergency session of the suspended six-party talks, can solve the problem effectively.

China, North Korea, South Korea, Japan,Russia and the United States initially started the six-party talks in 2003 to address security concerns resulting from North Korea’s nuclear weapons program. The talks were discontinued in 2009.

Tensions on the Korean Peninsula spiked after a recent exchange of fire. On November 23, a North Korean shelling of the Yeonpyeong Island, home to more than 1,000 South Koreans, killed two marines and two civilians. Pyongyang claimed its attack was prompted when, during a scheduled naval exercise, Seoul’s shells fell on the northern side of a disputed maritime border.

Soon after, the United States held largescale naval drills with South Korea and Japan,separately, in waters near the peninsula.

A trilateral alliance

“It seems that a trilateral military alliance is being institutionalized between the United States, Japan and South Korea,” said Chen Xiangyang, an associate research fellow with the China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations.

In the recent U.S.-Japan joint military exercise, for the fi rst time, South Korea attended as an observer. And Japan was invited to watch the U.S.-South Korea exercise in July.

The strengthening of the U.S.-Japan-South Korea military alliance reflects a change in the United States’ Asia Paci fi c strategy. The focus has shifted from bilateral alliances to a multilateral framework, featuring sub-regional security mechanisms, Chen said.

The increasing scope of these alliances is conducive to a U.S. domination of the Asia Paci fi c security pattern, added Chen.

Two days after a joint naval exercise with South Korea ended on December 1, the United States began an even larger weeklong exercise with Japan.

MILITARY MIGHT: Japanese and U.S. soldiers participate in the opening ceremony of a major ground training exercise in southern Japan’s Miyazaki Prefecture on December 7, as part of the largest Japan-U.S. joint military exercise in history

Altogether more than 40,000 soldiers participated in the U.S.-Japan military exercise, which was the largest ever between the two nations and was estimated to be six times bigger than the U.S.-South Korea exercise.

In 2010, the United States conducted a total of five military exercises with South Korea and two with Japan. These exercises strengthened the U.S.-South Korea and U.S.-Japan military alliances and indirectly consolidated the triangular military relations of the three countries.

Then the three countries held a trilateral meeting among their chief diplomats in Washington, D.C. on December 6 in order to coordinate their positions on Korean Peninsula issues. The meeting illustrates a further strengthening of both military and political ties among the three countries.

A joint statement issued after the meeting said the three countries “reaf fi rmed their mutual bilateral responsibilities and steadfast commitments under U.S.-South Korean and U.S.-Japanese security treaties, which serve as foundations for the two alliance relationships.”

The three chief diplomats also pledged to maintain and enhance coordination and consultation on Korean Peninsula issues, the statement added.

BOLSTERED ALLIANCE: U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, South Korean Foreign Minister Kim Sung Hwan(right) and Japanese Foreign Minister Seiji Maehara attend a press conference after their trilateral meeting in Washington, D.C. on December 6

The U.S.-Japan-South Korea military alliance has reached a level not seen since the Cold War, said Tao Wenzhao, a professor at the Center for U.S.-China Relations at Tsinghua University in Beijing.

He said the key reason for this is the continual escalation of tensions on the Korean Peninsula.

In reality, though, a U.S.-Japan-South Korea military alliance is not a new development. Since the end of World War II,the United States has maintained a military presence in the Asia-Paci fi c region by sending troops, signing defense agreements and establishing military alliances.

Although the U.S.-Japan and U.S.-South Korea military alliances are both close, the three countries seldom conduct activities together, other than discussing the North Korean nuclear issue.

Every year, the United States holds large-scale military exercises. But the three countries never before staged meaningful joint military exercises. Apparently, this all changed in 2010.

A collective solution

The continual escalation of tensions on the Korean Peninsula has drawn a flood of international attention. Possible solutions have been a hot topic.

“The United States believed it could frighten North Korea with large-scale military exercises and the most advanced aircraft,as well as other weapons,” said Shi from Fudan University. “But the reality proves this is useless.”

He said that, as a world superpower,the United States has always taken a tough stance on the North Korean nuclear issue and hoped to force North Korea to change its policies through military deterrence and sanctions.

Shi said that while no immediate results would be produced, tensions could be eased through negotiation.

The Chinese Government has made efforts in this direction. China has proposed emergency consultations among the heads of delegations to the six-party talks.

On November 28, Wu Dawei, Special Representative of the Chinese Government on Korean Peninsula Affairs, announced this proposal at a press conference. However,the diplomatic effort did not get positive responses from the United States, Japan and South Korea.

A week later, on December 6, in a telephone conversation with his U.S. counterpart, Barack Obama, Chinese President Hu Jintao called for a calm and rational response from all sides to prevent the deterioration of the fragile security situation on the Korean Peninsula.

“China has always believed that dialogues and negotiations are the only right way to solve the issues and achieve lasting peace and stability for the Korean Peninsula,” Hu said.

He also warned that the fragile security situation on the Korean Peninsula, if not properly handled, could lead to further escalation of tensions, or even get out of control.This is not in the common interests of any concerned parties.

Obama responded that the United States is willing to cooperate closely with China to achieve denuclearization on the peninsula,remove the risk of instability there and protect the security environment in northeast Asia.

On December 8, however, the United States and South Korea announced plans to continue joint military exercises.

The attitudes of the United States, Japan and South Korea may be rooted in misunderstanding, said Piao Jianyi, a Korean Peninsula affairs expert from the Institute of Asia-Paci fi c Studies at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.

He suggested the world should address North Korea’s need to peacefully develop nuclear energy. China is concerned with the chain reaction that may result if North Korea develops nuclear weapons. Therefore, it expects denuclearization not only in North Korea but on the whole Korean Peninsula.To achieve this, the six-party talks provide a viable option.

Chen Qi, an expert on East Asian studies at Tsinghua University, also said negotiations are the only solution to the tensions.Changes in South Korea’s policies toward North Korea initially caused the tensions.Only after the shift came the March sinking of the South Korean warship,Cheonan,and the recent artillery exchange on the Yeonpyeong Island, he said.

He said the key to the North Korean nuclear issue is to address North Korea’s security concerns. External sanctions led to feelings of insecurity in North Korea. The country is seeking nuclear weapons as a means to defend itself.

Chinese experts agree that peace on the Korean Peninsula is in the interest of many countries. Therefore, the solution to tensions on the peninsula will require joint efforts.Most importantly, both North Korea and South Korea must wish for reconciliation.