中国外贸乍暖还寒

After outstripping Germany to become the world biggest exporter in 2009， China's total import and export value managed a year on year 44.8%growth in January-February of this year to reach US$386.4 billion， including US$204.08 billion of exports， up 31.4%， and US$182.32 billion of import， up 63.6%，leading to 50.4%fall of trade surplus to US$21.76 billion.

It should say that China's swift recovery of export is achieved based on the state stimulus policy，and the rising lowend demand is inducted by the“potato effect” in the crisis.But， China's long-time extensive export mode based on quantity expansion has not changed， but the long-time low cost advantage is losing.The ranking of“made in China” low cost dropped from the fourth in the world to the sixth last year， and the trade surplus decrease at fast speed.China's foreign trade has not fully recovered.

Relying on the low costexpansion， Chinese enterprises are obviously behind others in exports of technology-intensive products，and exports of high-tech and new products have high dependence on processing trade.In 2009， some 81.5%of China's high-tech and new product exports came from processing trade，which are low in processing value added due to lack of key technology.At the same time， there has been no big change in exports of high-end products of emerging industries and basic industries.Exports of emerging industries such biomedicine，life science and material technology which are under key supports from the state are making slow progress； and exports o fhigh-end products ofhigh-grade steelproducts and major equipment in the basic industries were wtill in small quantities.

Actually， China's exports in 2009 was“forced NO.1” to some extent.Under the impact of the financial crisis，German economy has experienced the most serious recession in more than 60 years，which has undoubtedly dragged the exporting industries.Especially，Germany's exports are largely machinery， high-tech products and services，and the financial crisis has led to an insufficient operation rate and inventory reduction restricted demand for such German made products.According to statistics from Germany Federal Statistics Office， German Exports reached Euro803.2 billion， US$1，121.3 billion， in 2009， falling 18.4%year on year.China won the first place with narrow advantage with the exports of US$1，201.6 billion.

Meanwhile，China's exports are supported by the features of“made in China” and“Giffen goods” .“Giffen goods” refer to goods whose quantity demanded is positively related to price，meaning goods satisfying basic living need can be replaced with high-price and bigger effect commodities under economic prosperity period，but consumers favor more low-price commodities during economic recession.China's exports are mainly low-and medium-grade labor-intensive products and intermediate products between middle-end and technology-intensive ones.When consumption capacity of highgrade commodities of consumers in Europe and America dropped， the low-price but good products made in China may be their first choice.This is one of the reasons leading to narrower dropping rate of China's exports especially the export of labor-intensive products.

What is more worrisome that after becoming the biggest exporter in the world，there are increasing trade barriers awaiting China.The united States Department of Commerce announced on March 2，4 and 11 respectively to make initial ruling on levy anti-subside duties on potassium phosphate salts and coated paper imported from China，and temporary antidumping tariff ranging from 132.7%to 349%on magnesia carbon brick from China， imposed 69.58－95.4%anti-dumping duties on potassium phosphate.Besides developed economies such the U.S.and EU， the economic crisis has made developing countries frequently use of trace remedy investigations.Economies such as India， Brazil， Argentina，Russia，Mexico and Columbia have built the trade barriers higher and higher against China.According to statistics from the World Trade Organization (WTO），of the anti-dumping investigation launched by Argentina， onefourth target at China.India has exceeded the EU and the U.S.to number of anti-dumping investigation cases against China，accounting for 20%of the total of anti-dumping investigation cases launched by WTO members against China.In 2009， China received 116 trade protection cases in various forms，involving US$12.7 billion.

The still uncertainty of the global economic recovery is the source of China's foreign trade under siege of many countries.The United States has voiced the determination to rebuild its position as a bit export country to double the export in five years，while other major economies have shown growing intention to spur domestic economic rebounds through expanding exports China faces unprecednted pressure in exports.

Currently，China export has not excaped the difficult status of“big but not strong” and“bit but not high grade”.China is under pressures from profits of both ends as China's manufacturing is still in position between primary raw material suppliers and final consumer goods makers in distribution of labor of international industrial chain in the export trade.One thing is definite that China's high growth period of exports achieved based on quantity expansion has gone over forver.Although the export increased in the first two months，te trade surplus has dropped and the dropping speed was fast.The trade surplus narrowed to less than US$10 billion in February.Under such a situation，the Chinese Govermment has prudently set the target of foreign trade growth for 2010 with the cargo trade growth set at 8%year on year， and service trade at 10%.