A Show of Force

The U.S.-South Korea joint military exercise highlights mounting security concerns in Northeast Asia

By ZHOU YONGSHENG

The United States and South Korea held a joint naval and air exercise, codenamed Invincible Spirit,in the Sea of Japan on July 25-28. The exercise, which involved 20 ships and submarines including the U.S.aircraft carrier USS George Washington, as well as 200 aircraft and 8,000 troops, was the biggest between the two countries since 1976.

Global concerns

The joint military exercise has attracted a fl ood of attention among international media and in East Asian countries, especially in China.

First of all, the exercise was in response to the sinking of the South Korean warship Cheonan on March 26. South Korea claims that a North Korean submarine torpedoed the ship. Pyongyang denies that charge and has repeatedly asked to send its own team to examine the ship’s wreckage.

The United States and South Korea intended to send a strong message to Pyongyang through this exercise.

The sinking of the Cheonan dealt a heavy blow to the South Korean people. In order to boost domestic morale, the South Korean Government emphasized that the U.S.-South Korea alliance was reliable and strong. That’s why it kept releasing information on the exercise before it began.

Initially, the South Korean Government announced the exercise was to be held in the Yellow Sea. For China, the Yellow Sea is a sensitive place crucial to its security. It is also associated with many painful memories.

The Yellow Sea was a battleground in the Sino-Japanese War (1894-95), the Russo-Japanese War (1904-05) and World War I(1914-18). In those waters, Japan defeated the Beiyang Fleet, one of the modernized naval fl eets in the late Qing Dynasty (1644-1911), and destroyed Russia’s expedition fleet. It also repeatedly took advantage of the area for landing operations in Shandong Province.

That’s why the Chinese people, media,military and government all expressed strong resentment and opposition when they heard the military exercise was to be held in the Yellow Sea.

China fi rmly opposes foreign warships and military aircraft entering the Yellow Sea and other coastal waters of China to engage in activities affecting China’s security and interests, said Chinese Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi, while meeting with U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton in Hanoi, Viet Nam, on July 23. China urged the relevant parties to exercise restraint and to refrain from acts that might damage bilateral ties and escalate tension in the region.

From a military perspective, the United States planned to send the aircraft carrier USS George Washington, with a displacement of 97,000 tons, as well as sophisticated F-22 Raptor fighters, to participate in the military exercise in the Yellow Sea. Their striking range, 1,000 km in diameter, would not only cover North Korea, but also Beijing and Tianjin in north China.

In addition, South Korean media claimed that U.S. F-22 Raptor fi ghters could not only break through North Korea’s air defense system, but could also break through China’s air defense system. These reports increased China’s concern and attention.

Domestic disputes also occurred in the United States, in terms of the location and scale. Hardliners, mainly of fi cials of the U.S.Department of Defense, held that, despite China’s opposition, the exercise should be carried out as scheduled, so as to deter North Korea through the clear and strong warning message sent by the exercise.

Moderates worried the joint military exercise could be used by North Korea as an opportunity to strengthen its relations with China.They thought the exercise could also worsen tensions in Northeast Asia and fi nally result in a heavier burden to the United States. The debates between the two groups became the major reason for the repeated delay of the exercise.

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U.S. military and political leaders were hesitating to make a decision about whether to send an aircraft carrier to participate. In fact, China was not opposed to the U.S.-South Korea military exercise, but was against the plan of using an aircraft carrier and holding the exercise in the Yellow Sea. Both points concern China’s security interests.

The United States understood this.Sending an aircraft carrier to the exercise would clearly offend China, and the United States would pay a price.

But if the United States didn’t send an aircraft carrier, hardliners, both at home and in South Korea, would accuse Washington of succumbing to Beijing. Therefore, U.S. decision makers kept alternating between nationaldignity and long-term diplomatic interests, and the exercise was delayed again and again.

Security patterns

The extensive concern of Northeast Asian countries about the exercise showed the severe security situation in the region.Generally speaking, the security pattern in Northeast Asia has a number of features.

For instance, the U.S. political and military presence remains a dominant factor in the security pattern of Northeast Asia.Meanwhile, China’s influence is surging.No international force, including that of the United States, can neglect China’s concerns and stances. Changing the location to the Sea of Japan proved the United States and South Korea’s cooperative attitude toward China.

What’s more, the military confrontation on the Korean Peninsula is a key issue in Northeast Asian security. In recent years, it has become the most prominent factor for instability in the region.

In the North Korea-South Korea con-

The essential reason for the tension in Northeast Asia is that the confrontational structure formed during the Cold War has not fundamentally changed frontation, in terms of military strength alone, South Korea is in a weaker position.Therefore, it has been making efforts to enhance its military strength to deal with the threat of North Korea.

North Korea has long adopted a militaryfirst policy. And it is also making progress toward nuclear weapons. Since it has made a breakthrough in nuclear fusion, it will maintain long-term military superiority and nuclear deterrence over South Korea.

In fact, the essential reason for the tension in Northeast Asia is that the confrontational structure formed during the Cold War has not fundamentally changed. This structure includes the North Korea-South Korea confrontation; the U.S.-Japan alliance and U.S.-South Korea alliance and their potential confrontation with China and Russia;and the unresolved Japan-Russia and Japan-South Korea territorial disputes.

Of course, despite these conflicts, we can also see progress, including the improvement of China-South Korea relations and the deepening of China-U.S. cooperation and interdependence.

Although there is still no timetable for a final solution to the conflict on the Korean Peninsula, it is largely under control. Even if North Korea obtains nuclear weapons for use, it won’t easily resort to them, given its relatively weak position in Northeast Asia.Therefore, it is not able to change the basic security pattern of the region.

To protect its own strategic interests, the United States will seek to dominate the region’s long-term security pattern. As a result,it may run into disagreements and con fl icts with Northeast Asian countries. Somewhat troubled relations between the United States and North Korea, Japan, South Korea,Russia and China re fl ect these countries’ opposition to U.S. dominance and hegemony in the region. These con fl icts will not disappear,so long as Washington’s strategy remains unchanged.

Of course, U.S. control has also produced some positive results. For instance, it has inhibited, to some extent, the Japanese right-wing forces’ intention of rearming Japan.

With the rapid enhancement of China’s national strength, China’s in fl uence in the region is surging. This is another dramatic feature of the Northeast Asian security pattern. China’s in fl uence does not come from its enhanced military strength, but from its economic power.

In the 1990s, Japan and South Korea’s biggest trading partner was the United States.However, after entering the 21st century,great changes occurred in the economic situation of Northeast Asia. China became their biggest trading partner, and the two countries’reliance economically on China has surpassed their reliance on the United States.

Japan’s trade with the United States as a percentage of its total foreign trade volume dropped from 27.4 percent in 1990 to 13.5 percent in 2009, while its trade with China as a percentage of its total foreign trade volume increased from 3.5 percent to 20.5 percent.Therefore, China’s economic prosperity directly affects the economic security and development of Japan, South Korea and others, giving China a considerable in fl uence in the region. ■