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While cars are rapidly outstripping bicycles in popularity, it may be premature to announce the demise of this once favored mode of transport

While huge teams of bicyclists are no longer a common scene in China, long lines of cars can be seen everywhere. But does this mean that bicycles will cease to be a major mode of transport in the country?

Bicycles used to be the most important vehicle for ordinary Chinese people, and the frequent images of masses of cyclists gained China the nickname of the “Bicycle Kingdom.” However, bicycles are now being pushed aside by cars and expanding highways, and in some cities they are even blamed for traffic jams. It seems that bicycles are fated to be abandoned sooner or later.

Li Sen is a staff member at the Ministry of Construction, who came to Beijing 20 years ago. He said he could not recall when he last used his bicycle but he still remembered clearly that he spent his first salary on a bike, with which he was able to bike to the Tiananmen Square occasionally.

At the time, with few cars, Beijings streets were free of exhaust fumes and it was such a pleasure to travel by bike, he said.

But, since he bought a car five years ago, Li has totally given up his bicycle. In fact, even before he bought the car, he had already found it a hassle to ride a bicycle to work. Due to the rapid construction of the capital city, roadways are being made wider and wider while bicycle lanes are being squeezed. Besides, the air is much worse because of the exhaust gases.

The car fails to bring an end to Lis annoying journey to work. Frequent traffic jams have become a big headache since he acquired a car.

Lis experience is quite typical in many cities. Since the 1980s, the number of cars has increased along the quick pace of the urbanization. Statistics show that before the 1980s, Chinas urbanization rate only stood at 19 percent, but now it has grown to 30 percent and is expected to rise to 50 percent by 2010.

China is now home to 60 million cars. The number is growing by 10 percent annually and is forecast to jump to 130 million by 2010. Beijing alone will see thousands of new cars every day.

The rapidly rising number of cars is in contrast to shrinking bicycle use. According to statistics from the Chinese Cycling Association, in 1998, there were 180 bicycles for every 100 households, a figure that has now dropped to 140.

Ten years ago, 60 percent of Beijings residents went to work by bike, while only 20 percent do so currently. Some even predict that bicycles are doomed to be replaced by cars, leading to the extinction of the “Bicycle Kingdom.”

Nevertheless, some believe that the access to more types of transportation does not necessarily mean that bicycles will be given up. An improved awareness of environmental protection and health will encourage some people to turn back to this noiseless, pollution-free vehicle that also helps to keep them physically fit. Furthermore, its still possible for bicycles to attract more and more young people with their fascination with extreme sports and other activities.

An irreplaceable vehicle?

The increasingly striking traffic problem in big cities is now a headache facing countries all over the world. This problem is even more serious in China, a developing country. Although private car ownership is still limited to a small number of people, the swelling populations in cities, outdated public transport systems and poor management have resulted in serious traffic problems and environmental pollution. In south Chinas Guangzhou, cars account for 87 percent of carbon monoxide emissions and 67 percent of nitrogen dioxide emissions.

At present, apart from Beijing, such big cities as Shanghai, Wuhan, Xian and Guangzhou are also plagued by frequent traffic jams. In Chinas megacities, the average speed of cars has dropped to 12 km per hour from 20 in the 1980s. Economic losses resulting from traffic jams have amounted to tens of millions of yuan.

The problem in China is that cars have become popular in heavily populated cities while traffic systems are still underdeveloped. Chinas relatively abrupt opening to the world means that it has become easier for people to benefit from the modern transnational auto industry, although urban areas have not had time to adjust to this pattern.

In recent years, while the Chinese Government has attached great importance to the development of expressways, its input in urban traffic systems has been inadequate. And the underdevelopment of urban street networks is the major reason for the frequent traffic jams.

According to Li Jing, an academician from the Chinese Academy of Engineering, due to limited resources and space, it is not realistic for China to encourage private ownership of cars. A U.S. consulting company calculated that if in China there was a car for every 1.3 people, as in the United States, China would have 900 million cars, making up 40 percent of the worlds total, and they would consume 5 million tons of oil, or 20 percent of world oil output. Clearly, China is incapable of supplying so much energy.

In the United States, one third of the land in cities is allocated to roads and parking lots, but with a large population and extremely limited land area, it is impossible for China to contribute so much land to cars. A survey shows that the average life expectancy of people living in cities with little or no pollution is 26 percent longer than those in heavily polluted areas. Therefore, a clean environment also demands the restriction of private cars.

The European Car Free Day, launched in 2001, now involves nearly 800 European cities. In Germany, colorful bicycles create beautiful scenes in its cities and the German Government even offers special services to those who use bicycles.

But is it advisable for China to copy what Europe is doing? Bao Xiaowen, with Huazhong Normal University, believes that as non-polluting, low-cost and convenient vehicles, bicycles have an irreplaceable role in Chinas urban traffic system. In most cities, 50-60 percent of the urban traffic still relies on bicycles.

A new emphasis

People also are expected to use bicycles in various new ways. The Beijing Hanglun Cycling Club is dedicated to bicycle excursions and mountain bike events. It is composed of more than 200 teams, each with 20 to 50 bicycle fans. Apart from Beijing, Tianjin, Xiamen and Chengdu also have large-scale bicycle organizations.

Bicycles, which were once regarded as symbols of backwardness, are now again playing important roles.

A new bicycle lane in Shanghais Yangpu District, which cost the district 5 million yuan ($625,000), was opened on September 15, 2005. The lane is 2.2 meters to 2.4 meters wide and runs about 2 km. It is Shanghais first road built using epoxy resin, a non-skid surface that is expected to greatly reduce traffic accidents.

According to the Beijing Municipal Bureau of Urban Planning, in order to deal with traffic problems occurring in the process of urban development, experts and relevant departments have recently put forward certain ways to solve this problem in the old city of Beijing. The report stressed the importance of bicycles as an environmentally friendly vehicle.

After four years of debates, the Beijing Municipal Bureau of Public Security announced that the ban on “electric,” or battery-operated, bicycles, instituted in 2002, was to be ended on January 4, 2006. This was viewed as evidence of a change in the municipal governments “pro-car” policy, since the vehicle consistently has been a subject of dispute.

Those who oppose the vehicle argue that their batteries are hard to dispose of, while the vehicles rapid speed is a problem for the traffic police. Some local governments are concerned about the vehicles image, fearing that they would make cities seem outdated and backward. Thus, although 15 million people use them, bans on electric bicycles are still imposed around the country.

On the plus side is market demand. With China under pressure from pollution and energy shortages, the electric bicycle is a better choice than cars in terms of protecting the environment and saving energy. Moreover, used batteries from these bicycles are less harmful than exhaust from cars. And the relatively low price of electric bicycles puts them within the reach of ordinary Chinese people.

The Law on Traffic Road Safety, which came into force on May 1, 2004, granted the electric bicycle a legal identity--“non-motor car”--and stipulated that whether this vehicle is allowed to be registered and used is to be decided by local provincial, autonomous regional and municipal governments.

As the most influential action since the implementation of the law, the end of the ban on electric bicycles in Beijing may set an example for areas that still maintain the ban in the hope of protecting the environment.