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The U.S. Department of Defense recently submitted its Four-year Appraisal Report on National Defense to the Congress. The report clearly points out that China has great potential to become a U.S. military rival. Ding Gang, a columnist at Peoples Daily, comments on the report. Excerpts follow:

The U.S. Department of Defense submitted its Four-year Appraisal Report on National Defense to the Congress on February 6. Whats new about it? Lets have a look at any changes or shifts of emphasis and identify more clearly the U.S. policy toward China.

Generally speaking, the report is not beyond the main frame of the new national security strategy after the September 11 terrorist attacks. But compared with four years ago, the report has adjusted its emphasis on future defense work for the United States.

In the new report, the two main themes havent changed. One is that the United States is still carrying out a long battle against terrorism. That is to say that the United States arch enemy is still terrorism. The other is that the United States still considers China as its potential “military rival.” Four years ago, former U.S. Secretary of Defense William Cohen pointed out that strategists have recognized two key issues: One is that the United States will face a long-term threat from terrorism and the other is that rising China will become a rival to the United States in the region.

But there are two changes in the new report this time. One is that it clearly points out that China, as a major and newly emerged power, has great potential to become a U.S. military rival. Four years ago, the U.S. report only said that the United States would face a military competitor, which has a huge amount of resources in East Asia, but didnt mention the name of China. The second change is that the new report has put forward specific measures to strengthen U.S. military capacity in the Pacific region and set up a target of improving its long-range attack capability as soon as possible.

The two changes have shown the United States will consolidate its follow-up and study on Chinas military development and take it as a key defense target to design a future response strategy. Its also worthwhile to point out that the United States wants to strengthen its long-range strike capability mainly due to its consideration that there will be a change in the political pattern of East Asia in the future. Once it becomes difficult for the United States to control the East Asia region with the help of its Japanese and South Korean military bases, it has to substantially improve its long-range attack capability. Otherwise, it cannot control the region effectively. Meanwhile, long-range attack capability can also increase U.S. deterrence to terrorists and its so-called “evil countries.”

In terms of strategic emphasis, the new report is a bit different from U.S. President George W. Bushs latest remarks in his State of the Union address, where he emphasized Chinas competition with the United States in the economic field. This time around, Bush talked more about politics and diplomacy. But the defense report talks about military preparation and forms its China policy from the military preparedness and defense perspective. Judging from the U.S. pattern of focusing on its defense policy, one can see that the U.S. national defense pays more attention to the unexpected aspect of the situation.

Sino-U.S. relations have experienced some positive changes since last year. The changes took place mainly due to Chinas fast development. Second, this also has something to do with the U.S. change of its national defense strategy after the September 11 terrorist attacks in 2001. If the United States wants to win the war against terrorism, it needs to cooperate with China. The new report reiterates the importance of antiterrorism. This indicates that the external conditions for an improvement of Sino-U.S. relations havent changed.

But the new report also shows that the long trend of the United States working from the standpoint of defense remains. This is because the United States still lacks confidence in Chinas development. In Sino-U.S. relations, many problems arise due to misunderstanding and mutual suspicion. Judging from the tone of the new report by the U.S. Department of Defense, the mistrust is increasing, not decreasing, something that reflects just how complex the relationship really is.