Ｉｓ Ｔｈｅｒｅ ａ Ｒｏａｄ Ａｈｅａｄ？

As the Iranian nuclear issue was submitted to the UN Security Council, observers are not entirely pessimistic about the outlook for resolving the problem. Hua Liming, former Chinese Ambassador to Iran, comments on the issue in an article carried in the Peoples Daily Overseas Edition.

His main ideas follow:

The world at the beginning of 2006 is not at peace. The United States and the European Union are in a diplomatic fight with Iran.

The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Board of Governors adopted a resolution tabled by the EU on February 4, with 27 votes in favor, three against and five abstaining, to report the Iranian nuclear issue to the United Nations Security Council.

Iran responded to the IAEAs decision by announcing an end to its implementation of the additional protocol of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and the full resumption of uranium enrichment. Almost immediately, Israel threatened that Iran would pay “dearly” for this.

With the adoption of the EU resolution, Iran was isolated. However, as all agreements reached by Britain, France and Germany with Iran since 2003 were tossed out, the EU might lose its place to conduct a dialogue with Iran while the Islamic republic may now feel free to develop its nuclear technology. Although the United States and the EU may rejoice in gaining an overwhelming vote this time, there is actually no winner in this diplomatic fight.

Irans tough position and less-than-favorable international image in 2005 were main reasons behind the overwhelming vote in the IAEA Council. Nevertheless, it doesnt mean that all those voting in favor of the resolution are willing to pressure Iran together with the United States and the EU and that these countries support sanctions on Iran. For example, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov said after the vote that Russia still believes this question should be resolved within the framework of the IAEA as far as possible, and that Russia is not sure sanctions would have an effect.

The Indian Foreign Ministry released a statement saying that Indias vote in favor of the resolution should by no means be construed as a deviation from its traditional and close friendly relations with Iran.

Chief of the Chinese Delegation Wu Hailong said that China encourages Iran to continue to cooperate with the IAEA and boost the trust of the international community in its peaceful nuclear activities.

For now, the United States and Iran have a fundamental conflict of interest, which constitutes the key obstacle to solving the Iranian nuclear issue as well as being the fundamental cause of the diplomatic hassle in Vienna.

The international community is very concerned with possible disastrous prospects. The Iranian nuclear issue seems to have reached a point where the question arises as to whether there is even a road ahead.

Yet, analysts are not entirely pessimistic about the outlook. First of all, this is because the United States is not yet ready to fight another battle over the issue, whose end it cannot see for itself.

Second, Iran has not shut the door entirely. Foreign Ministry Spokesman Hamid Reza Asefi said Iran would continue to cooperate with the IAEA under NPT and relevant IAEA rules, and stick to addressing the issue through dialogue. He also said Iran would continue to consult with Russia on a compromise.

Third, the United States and the EU have different ideas on the Iranian nuclear issue and diverging interests. Once Iran softens its position, the United States and the EU would have differences.

Fourth, the resolution of the IAEA Board of Governors only requires Director General Mohamed ElBaradei to “report” the Iranian nuclear issue to the United Nations Security Council, rather than “refer” it. The wording shows most IAEA members leniency and provides the space for Iran to show flexibility.

Chinese delegation chief Wu said after the adoption of the resolution that although there are obstacles for the issue to be solved through negotiation, the parties concerned should not give up diplomatic efforts. As long as a glimmer of hope exists it deserves the maximum effort. This is perhaps the common wish of the international community. Is there a turn ahead in the Iranian nuclear issue when the road is in question? Lets wait and see.